ところで、ちょっと確認して置きたいんだが、君は Hogwarts School of
Witchcraft and Wizardry へ通じる正門がどこにあるか知ってるんだろうな？
嘉悦大学に体育館があるの知ってるか？僕がいつも体育館の裏に来いと
言ってた意味は知ってるんだろうな。体育館の柱を通りぬけて向こうに
でるんだぜ。マグルのやつらはいつも頭ぶつけてるけどね。ははははは、ほんと
マグなやつらだ。
Bo Zhuang, a China economist at the London research firm Trusted Sources, says the rise in private-sector indebtedness is "quite an alarming issue."
It's quite an alarming issue. The government is trying very hard to slow down the pace of the leveraging up, but they are not deleveraging. The debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to go up.
Last month the fund manager BlackRock noted there were only four other credit booms of similar magnitude to that seen in China over the past 50 years, and all of them resulted in a banking crisis occurring within three years.
The annual labour of every nation is the fund which originally
supplies it with all the necessaries and conveniencies of life
which it annually consumes, and which consist always either in the
immediate produce of that labour, or in what is purchased with
that produce from other nations.
>Here are five warning signs that have set seasoned China watchers worrying that what started out as an exercise in rebalancing and controlled liberalisation might result in a hard landing.
1. Growth
On the face of it, China has little to worry about. Official figures show that the economy is growing at an annual rate of 7%, the sort of expansion western nations can only dream about. But there are doubts about whether the official data is correct. The Economist has developed an unofficial “Keqiang index”, based on Li’s own technique of looking at indicators such as electricity use and rail freight volumes to assess what is really going on in the economy. These provide a much less rosy picture, with rail freight volumes down 11% on a year ago and electricity production flat. Using similar measures the London-based consultancy Fathom estimates China is really growing at 3.1% a year, not 7%
2. Cutting interest rates
The cost of borrowing in China has been cut aggressively since the autumn of 2014 in response to the slowdown in the economy and the distress caused to property owners, local government and corporations by high debt-servicing costs. Tight monetary policy was one mechanism by which Beijing sought to slow the pace of growth amid concerns that its response to the global financial crash – cheaper credit and a fiscal boost worth 12% of GDP – had been excessive. The subsequent cut in benchmark interest rates from 6% to a record low of 4.85% suggests policymakers think the slowdown has been too rapid.
3. Putting a floor under the stockmarket
The ability to buy and sell shares was seen as an example of China’s growing financial maturity. But when the Shanghai Composite index fell by 30% in a month earlier this year, the government stepped in. The central bank supported share buying, a state-backed wealth fund bought up stocks and fund managers were prevailed on not to sell until the market had recovered. Far from restoring calm, the moves suggested Beijing was afraid of a damaging crash.
Beijing was afraid of a damaging crash.と言うのは間違ってて、意図的に
相場を動かしてバブル益を回収したということかもしれないということですね。
底が抜けるのを慌てて手当てしたという行動と矛盾がある解釈ですが、後で
良く考えてみないといけないですね。
4. Declining exports
A move away from an over-dependence on exports is official government policy. But the recent weakness in the sale of goods overseas has been more marked than expected, and has helped to contribute to declining world trade and the drop in commodity prices. The cost of maintaining the yuan’s level against the US dollar has been a drop in foreign exchange reserves and an 8.3% drop in exports in the 12 months to July.
5. A cheaper currency
As a result of its weakening economy, China has abandoned its currency peg with the dollar and reduced the yuan’s exchange rate on three separate occasions this week. Beijing has put a brave face on this move, saying it is designed to get the yuan included in the International Monetary Fund’s reserve assets known as special drawing rights. A more obvious explanation is that China is seeking to boost growth by making its exports cheaper – a return to the growth model it is supposed to be abandoning.
格差問題は財閥側の価値観なんだよね。特に法人税率を下げだ。
財政苦しいというなら消費税上げて法人税も上げないといけないのを
下げてるんだから負担者を変えたに過ぎない。まあ、古い考え方だけど
The Rothschilds belong to no one nationality, they are cosmopolitan...
they belong to no party, they were ready to grow rich at the expence
of friend and foe alike.
といわれてる。流浪の民だから愛国心というものはないのよね。選民思想を
持つ国家を持たない民だから、通常の国のナショナリズムと相容れないところがある。
China's economic slowdown: 11 things you should know
Updated by Matthew Yglesias on September 3, 2015, 7:01 a.m. ET
11) This summer has shaken faith in China's leaders
Much of this has been in the air for years. The reason it's coming to a head now is that the stock market bubble and subsequent collapse have shaken faith in the Chinese government's ability to form and execute coherent policy.
When the bubble was on its way up, the government tried — and failed — to slow it. Then when it started to pop, the government tried — and, again, failed — to slow the pace of the collapse. China devalued its currency to boost its economy, but didn't go far enough. It's cut interest rates repeatedly, only to find that it needs to cut them again. Now the government seems to be arresting people who express negative opinions about the stock market outlet.
This summer's events have laid bare the reality beneath the incredible successes of the past 20 years. China remains a middle-income country with shaky economic institutions and an opaque and unaccountable political system. Three decades of stellar growth starting from a rock-bottom floor have landed China at a level of per capita prosperity that's similar to Serbia or Peru or the Dominican Republic — places that nobody regards as obviously amazing investment opportunities even though in some ways their political systems are more solid than China's.
Loss of faith has a self-fulfilling aspect to it. To the extent that people believe China can conquer its present-day challenges, actually conquering them becomes easier. To the extent that people begin to write China off, then it will have greater difficulties in pulling off the kind of transition the country needs.
10) Chinese politics hamper an effective response
The combination of rapid 21st-century economic growth in China, political crises in the United States, and China's authoritarian political system sometimes leads Western commentators to dream hazily about the virtues of Chinese authoritarianism in cutting through the nonsense and letting leaders do what needs to be done.
The reality, however, is that authoritarian political systems still have politics. There are still interest groups, and public officials are still sometimes more loyal to particular interests than to the good of the nation. This is a crucial issue in China's rebalancing process. It's easy for an outsider observer to say that inefficient state-owned enterprises should be shut down. It's harder for a government official who needs to worry about lost jobs. It's easy for an outsider to say that China needs more income redistribution. It's harder to defeat the political power of rich Chinese people who would rather the country not do that. It's easy to say China needs to spend less on construction projects and more on social services. But to do that you need to overcome the entrenched interests of the contractors who benefit from the projects.
China's leaders give every indication of being broadly aware of the nature of the country's problems and the kinds of solutions that are needed. What's less clear is that they can actually deliver these solutions.
Evil exists in the world, not create despair, but activity. We are not patiently to submit to it, but to exert our selves to avoid it. It is not only the interest but the duty of every individual to use his utmost efforts to remove evil from himself and from as large a circle as he can influence; and the more he exercises himself in this duty, the more successful these efforts are, the more he will probably improve and exalt his own mind, and the more completely does he appear to fulfil the will of his Creator.
The volatility of export earning of countries dependent on primary commodity exports has long been recognizeed as a key source of instability in the economic system. Unless they take strong protective measures, these countries not only experience boom-bust cycles but also tend to find themselves in debt distress and in need of additional aid when commodity prices collapse.
Developing countries that are dependent on exports of commodities with high price volatility need to establish stabilization funds and to otherwise manage their economies to reduce the extent of the boom-bust cycle, invluding by restricting borrowing during the boom phase.
آن حضرت (علیه السلام)، در یازدهم ذی القعده سال ۱۴۸ قمری در مدینه منوّره تولّد یافت. نام مبارک ایشان، علی و کنیهاش، ابوالحسن و دارای القاب متعدّدی می باشد که مشهورترین آنها، “رضا” به معنای “خشنودی” است.
ＡＦＰ＝時事 10月12日(月)20時13分配信
【AFP＝時事】（一部更新、写真追加）スウェーデン王立科学アカデミー（Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences）は12日、2015年のノーベル経済学賞（Nobel Prize in Economics）を「消費、貧困、福祉」に関する研究による業績で、英米両国の国籍を持つ経済学者のアンガス・ディートン（Angus Deaton）氏（69）に授与すると発表した。
シェアハウス投資を巡るずさん融資問題で、金融庁がスルガ銀行に不動産融資業務の一部停止命令の検討に入ったことが14日、分かった。経営陣が現場の実態を把握せず、問題融資のまん延を防げなかった点を問題視し、厳しい行政処分が必要と判断した。ガバナンス（企業統治）に重大な欠陥があるとして、経営体制の刷新も求める方針。(＠S［アットエス］ by 静岡新聞SBS)
