「Nobel Prizes in Economics, Awarded and Withheld」と題されたEconospeakエントリでピーター・ドーマンが、今年度のノーベル経済学賞は誰が受賞したかよりも誰が受賞しなかったかに注目すべき、と書いている。以下はその末尾。
The reality is this is a nonprize for Weitzman, an attempt to dismiss his approach to combating climate change, even though his position is far closer to the scientific mainstream than Nordhaus’. An example of the enlistment of the uncritical media in this enterprise is today’s New York Times, where Binyamin Appelbaum writes:
Mr. Nordhaus also was honored for his role in developing a model that allows economists to analyze the costs of climate change. His work undergirds a new United Nations report on the dangers of climate change, released Monday in South Korea.
Wrong. The work Nordhaus pioneered in the social cost of carbon is mentioned only twice in the IPCC report, a box in Chapter 2 and another in Chapter 3. The reason it appears only in boxes is that, while the authors of the report wanted to include this work in the interest of being comprehensive, it plays no role in any of their substantive conclusions. And how could it? The report is about the dangers of even just 1.5o of warming, less than the conventional 2o target, and far less than the 3+o Nordhaus is comfortable with. Damages are expressed primarily in terms of uninhabitable land and climate refugees, agricultural failure and food security, and similarly nonmonetary outcomes, not the utility-from-consumption metric on which Nordhaus’ work rests.
The Nordhaus/Romer combo is so artificial and unconvincing it’s hard to avoid the impression that the prize not given to Weitzman is as important as the one given to Nordhaus. This is a clear political statement about how to deal with climate change and how not to deal with it. The Riksbank has spoken: it wants a gradual approach to carbon, one that makes as few economic demands as possible.
ウィリアム・ペティ(William Petty)は,イギリスの17世紀重商主義期において,経済学,財政学,統計学に関する多くの著作を公刊した。それらのうち,財政的著作としては,『租税および貢納論』(A Treatise of Taxes and Contributions, 1662)と『賢者には一言をもって足る』(Verbum Sapienti, 1691)(以下,『賢者一言』と略称)が主要な体系をなしている。これら両著作は,その成立の社会的諸事情において相通ずるものをもち,しかもその主題においても一致している。すなわち,両著作とも,当時のイギリスにおける最大かつ緊急の経済問題であった財政の基礎確立のための租税政策を提示する目的をもって執筆されたものである。『租税および貢納論』をペティの租税論と呼ぶならば,『賢者一言』はかれの戦時租税論と呼ばれるべき著作であるといってよい。
新しい経済成長論」の概要と関連する議論については膨大な文献があるが、それらをまとめた代表的なテキストブックとして、レベル別にWeil[2005]、Jones[2003]、Barro and Sala-i-Martin[2004]、Aghion and Howitt[1998]などがある。このなかでも特にWeil[2005]に象徴されるように、最近のテキストブックにおいては、かなりのページを割いて開発途上国に関する言及が増えている。またRay[1998]のように、経済発展論・開発経済論のテキストブックにおいても「新しい成長論」に対する章を設けるなど、両分野における相互乗り入れは活発になってきている。
Pritchett (2001) やBenhabib & Spiegel (1994)が教育がどっか行ったと騒いだが,これらの結論は近年,より正確なデータで修正されうる事を一部の研究,Cohen and Soto (2007)やFuente and Dom\´enech (2006)等で修正を迫られているようだ。good data, good resultsだそうだが安倍に汚された日本はデータが穢いんであかんな,,こんなんだから成長できひん┐('〜`;)┌
Fuente and Domenech (2006)ではこれらの両極端な結果が人的資本の計測に関わっていると明らかにした。
概念上明確な定義が存在してこなかった。
学修年限は良いproxyだと長いこと認識されてきた。
併し単純にデータにさっと目を通しても学修年限の成長率が最も早い地域はとても低開発の国である。だから平均学修年限average years of schooling を二倍にしたからといって人的資本ストックが二倍になるとは信じられない。
We then construct indicators of the information
content of our estimates and a number of previously available data sets and examine their
performance in several growth specifications.
Over the past two decades, real median wage growth (実質中央値賃金成長) in many OECD countries has decoupled(分離された) from labour productivity growth, partly reflecting declines in labour income shares(一部は労働所得シェアの低下を反映して). This paper analyses the drivers of labour share developments(労働シェアの進展[変化]の推進要素) using a combination of industry-and firm-level data. Technological change in the investment goods-producing sector(投資財生産部門の技術変化) and greater global value chain participation(より巨大な地球規模のヴァリューチェーンへの参加) have compressed(押し込む) labour shares, but the effect of technological change has been significantly less pronounced(顕著←pronounce:発音する・宣言する) for high-skilled workers(技術進歩の高熟練労働者への(負の?)効果ははっきりしない). Countries with falling labour shares have witnessed(目撃する→経験する[目の当たりにするって感じか]) both a decline at the technological frontier(技術的尖端からの脱落(?←減退),技術フロンティアの低落??生産性フロンティア?) and a reallocation of market shares toward “superstar” firms with low labour shares(低労働シェアの総取り優秀企業への市場シェアの再配分) (“winner-takes-most” dynamics). The decline at the technological frontier mainly reflects the entry of firms with low labour shares into the frontier rather than a decline of labour shares in incumbent frontier firms, suggesting that thus far(此迄の所) this process is mainly explained by technological dynamism rather than anti-competitive forces(反競争的力?→独占力?).
The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2013-27.pdf
Elsby, Michael W L, Bart Hobijn, and Aysegul Sahin, (2013) "The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. Fall.
Over the past quarter century, labor’s share of income in the United States has trended downwards, reaching its lowest level in the postwar period after the Great Recession(大恐慌後の戦後期[こんな言い方あるのか?!]で最も低い水準に達した). Detailed examination of the magnitude, determinants and implications of this decline delivers five conclusions(この減少の大きさ,決定要因及び含意を詳細に調べることに拠って5つの結論を得た). First, around one third of the decline in the published labor share(公表された労働シェアの減少の1/3が) is an artifact(人工物) of a progressive(進歩的な→漸進的な) understatement(控えめな表現) of the labor income of the self-employed underlying the headline measure(自営業の基礎にある大見出しの計測器の労働収入??). Second, movements in labor’s share are not a feature solely of recent U.S. history(最近のUS史のみの特徴では無い): The relative stability of the aggregate labor share prior to the 1980s(1980年代より前の比較的安定した総動労シェア) in fact veiled substantial(実態のある→しっかりした), though offsetting(offset:埋め合わせる・相殺するもの),movements in labor shares within industries(産業内の確固たるしかし相殺的な動きで実際には隠されていた). By contrast, the recent decline has been dominated by trade and manufacturing sectors. Third, U.S. data provide limited support for neoclassical explanations based on the substitution of capital for (unskilled) labor to exploit(利用する・搾り取る) technical change embodied in new capital goods(新しい資本に体化された技術進歩を利用する為の(非熟練)労働の資本への代替という新古典派に基づいた説明に対するサポートは限定的である). Fourth, institutional explanations based on the decline in unionization(労働組合組織率の低下に基づいた組織論的説明) also receive weak support. Finally, we provide evidence that highlights the offshoring of the labor-intensive component of the U.S. supply chain(アメリカのサプライチェーンの労働集約的な構成要素の海外移転) as a leading potential explanation of the decline in the U.S. labor shareover the past 25 years.
本文より
The headline measure published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (BLSより公表されたheadline measure代表的尺度??) historically fluctuated around a mean of close to 64 percent from the immediate postwar period to the mid-1980s.
Thereafter, aside from a brief surge(急上昇・サージ電流は雷等に拠る電流急上昇) surrounding the tech bubble at the turn of the21st century(21世紀の変わり目の), this measure has displayed a downward trend, averaging around 58 percent in recent years, 6 percentage points below the level that prevailed during the first four decades of the postwar period.
…
●Autor, David, Frank Levy and Richard J. Murnane (2003) ?The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An
Empirical Exploration" Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), 1279-1333.
Autor, David, Lawrence Katz and Melissa Kearney (2006) ?The Polarization of the US Labor Market," American
Economic Review, 96(2), 189-194.
Autor, David, Lawrence Katz and Melissa Kearney (2008) ?Trends in US Wage Inequality: Revising the Revisionists," Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 90(2), 300-323.
▲Card, David and John E. DiNardo (2002) ?Skill-Biased Technological Change and Rising Wage Inequality: Some Problems and Puzzles," Journal of Labor Economics 20, 733-783.
●Goos, Maarten and Alan Manning (2007) ?Lousy and Lovely Jobs: The Rising Polarization of Work in Britain," Review of Economics and Statistics 89, 118-133.
▲Manning, Alan (2004) ? We Can Work It Out: The Impact of Technological Change on the Demand for Low-Skill
Workers," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 51(5), 581-603.
●Spitz-Oener, Alexandra (2006) ?Technical Change, Job Tasks, and Rising Educational Demands: Looking outside
the Wage Structure," Journal of Labor Economics 24, 235-270.
…, certain features of specification of preferences are tied to basic growth observations for the U.S. economy. There is evidence that per capita leisure increased steadily until the 1930s. Since that time, and certainly for the postwar period, it has been approximately constant. We also know that real wages (defined as real average hourly rotal compensation[償い・埋め合わせ・代償・給与] ), including benefits and contributions for social insurance) have increased steadily in the postwar period. Taken together, these two observations imply that the elasticity of substitution between consumption and leisure should be near unity. ...
Autor, D., Dorn, D., Lawrence F.K., Patterson, C., and Van Reenen, J.(2017),“The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms”, NBER Working Paper No.23396
Elsby,M.,Hobijn,B.,andSahin,A.(2013),“The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol47,no.2,pp.1-63
”Physicists’ approach to studying socio-economicinequalities: Can humans be modelled as atoms?”
Kiran Sharma and Anirban Chakraborti https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.06051
A brief overview of the models and data analyses of income, wealth, consumption distributions by the physicists, are presented here(物理学者による所得分布等のモデルとデータ分析の簡単な概観が述べられている). It has been found empirically that the distributions of income and wealth possess fairly robust features, like the bulk of(〜の大部分) both the income and wealth distributions seem to reasonably fit both the log-normal and Gamma distributions, while the tail of the distribution fits well to a power law (as first observed by sociologist Pareto)(実証的に,所得と富の保有の分布はかなりロバストで,所得と富の分布の大宗bulkはかなり対数正規とガンマ分布に似ている一方で分布の尾tailの分布は(社会学者パレートに先ず観測された様に)冪法則に良くfitしている). We also present our recent studies of the unit-level expenditure on consumption(単位水準消費支出?) across multiple countries and multiple years, where it was found that there exist invariant(不変量・不変の) features of consumption distribution(消費分布に不変量の特徴→消費分布が一定である特徴?): the bulk is log-normally distributed, followed by a power law tail at the limit. The mechanisms leading to such inequalities and invariant features for the distributions of socio-economic variables are not well-understood. We also present some simple models from physics and demonstrate how they can be used to explain some of these findings and their consequences.
B.K. Chakrabarti, A. Chakraborti, S.R. Chakravarty and A. Chatterjee, Econophysics ofIncome and Wealth Distributions (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2013).
S. Sinha, A. Chatterjee, A. Chakraborti and B.K. Chakrabarti, Econophysics: An Introduc-tion (Wiley-VCH, Berlin, 2010).
F. Slanina Essentials of econophysics modelling (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2013).
M. Patriarca, E. Heinsalu, A. Singh and A. Chakraborti, “Kinetic Exchange Models asDDimensional Systems: A Comparison of Different Approaches”, in Eds. F. Abergel et al.,Econophysics and Sociophysics: Recent Progress and Future Directions(Springer, Milan,2017), pp 147-158.
所得分布の研究は古くからある研究であり,所得分布は,社会保障,労働,財政,マクロ,消費,経済統計など多くの領域にまたがる問題である.橘木俊詔(1998)『日本の経済格差』および,大竹文雄(2005)『日本の不平等』が,日本の経済格差の問題について大きな論争を呼びおこした.その結果,日本の不平等度が米国より高いということはないが,90年代以降,少しずつ上昇していることにはコンセンサスができてきている.一方,Journal of EconomicInequalityが2003年に発刊されるなど,世界的にも所得格差の問題は関心を集めている.
所得分布で用いられる…々の分布についてはKleiber and Kotz (2003)に詳しい説明がある.そして,本研究では2パラメータのパレート分布および対数正規分布を用いる.…指数分布の部分順序統計量にもとづく推定の研究はSaleh and Ali(1966)など,1960年代に盛んに行われていたが,Saleh and Ali (1966)では,この推定量をABLUE(Asymptotically BLUE)としている.
Nirei, M. and W. Souma (2007). “A Two Factor Model of Income Distribution Dy-namics,”Review of Income and Wealth,53, 440?459.
Saleh, A. K. Md. E. and M. M. Ali (1966).“Asymptotic Optimum Quantiles for theEstimation of the Parameters of the Negative Exponential Distribution,”Annals ofMathematical Statisitcs,37, 143?151.
Singh, S. K. and G. S. Maddala (1976). “A Function for Size Distribution of Incomes,”Econometrica,44, 963?970.
Kleiber, C and S. Kotz (2003).Statistical Size Distributions in Economics and Actu-arialSciences, Wiley, New York
連続数学でやってきたので離散数学は苦手なんだけど,有限の特許期間など微分差分方程式を解くなど,離散系も奥深そう。
有限の特許期間はLin and Shampine (2018)が the patent length does not essentially matter with respect to endogenous growth (or at least its qualitative properties)と結論付けてからはまあ良いかなって感じ。
Lin, H.C., Shampine, L.F., (2018) "R&D-based calibrated growth models with finite-length patents: A novel relaxation algorithm for solving an autonomous FDE systems of mixed type" Computational Economics 51, 123?158
Inflation and economic growth in a Schumpeterian model with endogenous entry of heterogeneous firms
Chu, Cozzi, Furukawa, Liao
European Economic Review 98, 2017, 392-409
ttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292117301319
・This article analyzes the effects of monetary policy on economic growth via a cash-in-advance constraint on R&D investment.
・We also calibrate the model to aggregate data of the US economy and find that the growth-maximizing inflation rate is about 3%, which is consistent with recent empirical estimates.
The optimal inflation rate under Schumpeterian growth
Oikawa & Ueda
Journal of Monetary Economics 100, 2018, 114-125
tps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393218303970
・An endogenous growth model with creative destruction and menu costs is constructed.
・With the calibrated model, the optimal inflation rate is about ?2%.