Tokyo's extraordinary efforts to use the bogus abduction issue to create
an anti-North Korea campaign will push SK even further away from Japan and
into Beijing's arms.Tokyo's current idea that an alliance with India and
Australia will somehow counter China's global push is pure fantasy.
Nor is a dominant China quite the nightmare of some dreams. With due
respect to the many conservative contributors to this Forum, a communist
China is much less threat to the world, and Asia, that a nationalistic
Japan. I have been involved with both sides for fifty years and think I
know a little bit about respective national personalities. In other words,
I agree with Lee Kwan Yew, who also knows both sides very well.
My main worry is an East China sea clash in the period when Japan still
thinks it can match China militarily, and can rely on US support in a
clash.
But within 10 years the US, like the rest of Asia, will have to face up to
the China reality. Support for Japan in its shaky territorial claims will
be far from guaranteed.
Tokyo thought it was certain to get US support over Yasukuni, but for once
Washington got it right,realising that a Japan isolated politicaly and
culturally in Asia would not make a very reliable ally in Asia.
Tis a pity since for me at least in many ways Japan is a much more
attractive society than China, and potentially has a lot to offer the
world.
But the more it lets the Komoris have their way (and there are many more
like him, or worse, involved with the current administration) Tokyo is
bound to end up winding itself into a tiny frustrated nationalistic ball
that eventually can do little more than bounce impotently against a
Chinese wall .
