c 2019 International Monetary Fund WP/19/134
IMF Working Paper
Research Departments
The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat
Prepared by Weicheng Lian, Natalija Novta, Evgenia Pugacheva,
Yannick Timmer and Petia Topalova
Authorized for distribution by Oya Celasun
June 2019 https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/06/29/The-Price-of-Capital-Goods-A-Driver-of-Investment-Under-Threat-46948?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Abstract
Over the past three decades, the price of machinery and equipment fell dramatically relative to other prices in advanced and emerging market and developing economies. Using crosscountry and sectoral data, we show that the decline in the relative price of tangible tradable capital goods provided a significant impetus to the capital deepening that took place during the same time period. The broad-based decline in the relative price of machinery and equipment, in turn, was driven by the faster productivity growth in the capital goods producing sectors relative to the rest of the economy, and deeper trade integration, which induced domestic producers to lower prices and increase their efficiency. Our findings suggest an additional channel through which rising trade tensions and sluggish productivity could threaten real investment growth going forward.
過去30年間、先進国、新興市場、途上国経済において、機械・設備の価格は他の価格と比較して劇的に下落した。クロスカントリーおよびセクター別のデータを用いて、有形流通資本財の相対価格の下落が、同時期に起こった資本深化に大きな推進力を与えたことを示す。機械・設備の相対価格が広範に下落したのは、資本財生産部門の生産性が他の経済部門に比べてより速く成長したことと、貿易統合の深化によって国内生産者が価格を引き下げ、効率を高めるように誘導されたためである。我々の調査結果は、貿易摩擦の高まりと生産性の低迷が、今後の実質投資の成長を脅かす可能性のある新たなチャネルを示唆している。
