次に、何処の国もまともに守れそうも無い、京都議定書が万一順守されたとして、地球の
気温はどれぐらい下がるか？２０５０年までに０．０５度と言われている(M.Parry et. al., "Adapting
to the Inevitable," Nature 395(1998)741)。はっきり言って誤差の範囲。
中世温暖期は中国や日本の文献でも気温が高かった事が確認されていると言う話のソースを。
↓
●ZHANG DE'ER, "EVIDENCE FOR THE EXISTENCE OF THE MEDIEVAL
WARM PERIOD IN CHINA, " Climatic Change 26: 289-297, 1994
Y.Tagami, "Climate Change Reconstructed from Historical Data in Japan",
Proceedings of International Symposium on Global Change, International
Geosphere-Biosphere Programme-IGBP, 1993, 720-29
Lowell Stott, Axel Timmermann, and Robert Thunell
"Southern Hemisphere and Deep-Sea Warming Led Deglacial Atmospheric
CO2 Rise and Tropical Warming"
SCIENCE VOL 318 19 OCTOBER 2007
●宇宙線と雲量の関係を否定した論文は
J. E. Kristjansson, C. W. Stjern, F. Stordal, A. M. Fjaraa, G. Myhre, and K. Jonasson
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 8, 13265-13299, 2008
Cosmic rays, CCN and clouds ? a reassessment using MODIS data
雲量と宇宙線の関係に関しては有名なスベンマルクのペーパーの他に、最近では
Surv Geophys (2007) 28:333-375
にreview articleが掲載されていて、そこに
Over the last few years, however,
diverse reconstructions of past climate change have revealed clear associations with cosmic
ray variations recorded in cosmogenic isotope archives, providing persuasive evidence
for solar or cosmic ray forcing of the climate.
と有る。しかしながら雲の生成メカニズムに関しては不明な点も有るのでCERNで実験が計画されている。
The CLOUD experiment http://www.spacecenter.dk/research/sun-climate/experiments/the-cloud-experiment
一応、この論文の最後をコピペしとく。
Whether the Sun acts as the controller of climate changes on various time
scales, simply instigates the subsequent feedbacks that then dominate the observed record,
or is only a convenient explanation for unobserved
forcings or system oscillations, will probably be a matter of debate and continued
investigation for many years. The answer may also bear on whether the continued
growth of atmospheric trace gases will dominate
the system response or whether it too will be swamped by the feedbacks, making
predictions of any response equally difficult.
つまりは良く分かってないということ。従って、今でもCERNの実験などが行われている。
Surv Geophys (2007) 28:333-375
In summary, although
some individual sites may be affected, including some small
rural locations, the UHI effect is not pervasive, as all globalscale
studies indicate it is a very small component of largescale
averages.
＞中世温暖期は中国や日本の文献でも気温が高かった事が確認されていると言う話。ソースを。
↑
●ZHANG DE'ER, "EVIDENCE FOR THE EXISTENCE OF THE MEDIEVAL
WARM PERIOD IN CHINA, " Climatic Change 26: 289-297, 1994
Y.Tagami, "Climate Change Reconstructed from Historical Data in Japan",
Proceedings of International Symposium on Global Change, International
Geosphere-Biosphere Programme-IGBP, 1993, 720-29
“Many [scientists] are now searching for a way to back out quietly
(from promoting warming fears), without having their professional careers ruined.”
↑
あははｗ
しかも、Cosmic rayのLOSU（科学的理解）はvery lowとなっている。そして、
Ranks of very low are not evaluated.
（略）
Some effects are not quantified, either because they do not have enough evidence
or because their quantification lacks consensus. These include
certain mechanisms associated with land use, stratospheric water vapour and cosmic rays.
↑
これで、きちんと評価されていると言えるのか？
宇宙線に関しては、相関があるだけ、あとはお話レベルなので、科学的な理解が低いのは仕方がないにしても、
第4次評価報告書での扱いがフェアじゃないと思う。
これから大規模な実験も計画されてるし、ブームになりつつあるので、次回の評価報告書では無視できなくなるんじゃないか？
↑
仕方ないでしょ。ＩＰＣＣの学者は地球温暖化はCO2が主原因という
大前提にある人たちを呼んでるんだからさ。
Adapting to the inevitable
Martin Parry, Nigel Arnell, Mike Hulme, Robert Nicholls and Matthew Livermore
Nature Vol.395(1998) p.741
As a consequence, the Kyoto target itself
does relatively little to combat the rate of climate
change. The warming expected by 2050,
without any deliberate mitigation, is estimated
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) at 1.4 °C with respect to
the 1961-90 average. About 0.25 °C of this
has already been realized by the 1990s. Our
model predictions suggest that fully implemented
Kyoto targets would reduce this global
warming by 2050 only by about 0.05 °C.
Even more radical targets, such as a 20 per
cent reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions
from annex 1 countries, would reduce it by
only a further 0.1 °C by 2050.
●なんか日本っていろんな分野でどんどん抜かれてくね
↓
Japan − The incredible shrinking economy http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13415153
Apr 2nd 2009 | TOKYO
From The Economist print edition
Japan is in danger of suffering not one but two lost decades
世界のメディアは日本は失われた10年がもう10年伸びて失われる20年になるそうだ。
