The scale isn't simply a sign of China's rising wealth and self-image. It's planning for the necessary work of moving tens and hundreds of millions still-impoverished peasants from rural villages into areas where they can find work and higher living standards. Ensuring that the majority of its population ultimately benefits from the economy's modernization is the government's overriding goal.
China seeks to impress visitors with size and abundance. But you begin to wonder. Where will all the cement come from? The steel? The water? If the cities continue to expand at their current pace, who will provide all the meat, noodles and vegetables that cause Lazy Susans to buckle? And, above all, where will the energy come from?
China talks a great game when it comes to alternative energy. Every major city has subway systems and extensive public transport. The country's industrial policy encourages energy efficiency. The XCAIB district wants to become a center for LED lighting, and has mandated its use through the zone. At the Hi-Tech Industries Development Zone, we visited an Applied Materials facility, where researchers are figuring out ways to improve the efficiency of solar panels. There are signs and billboards for the solar industry all over the place. (A strange thing, given that, between the clouds, rain, and pollution, you can easily go a week in China without seeing the sun.)
And yet China's impressive, frequently astonishing growth is powered almost exclusively by non-renewable fossil fuels. A note in the brochure for the Xi'An National Civil Aerospace industrial Base says it plans "to build 6 high-temperature coal-fired boilers with total heating supply of 696 MW." (That's enough to power about 70,000 U.S. homes)
In economies like China's, electricity usage rises at about 70-80 percent of the rate of the economy, so if China grows 10 percent, its need for electricity rises 7 to 8 percent. Add in the fact that China retires some dirty coal plants each year, and it needs to add a huge amount of electrical capacity just to keep up with demand. China's electrical capacity is expected to rise about 8.8 percent in 2011 to 1050 gigawatts. And most of that growth will come from coal-fired plants, perhaps the least sustainable form of electricity generation available. Solar power accounts for less than 1 percent of China's electricity generation. Given the pace of growth, it's very difficult for alternative energy like wind and solar power to gain market share in China.
Then there's the traffic — oh lord, the traffic. The process of urbanization in Xi'an is, in some ways, just beginning. And yet at rush hour it can easily take an hour to move six miles through the wide boulevards that are clogged with vehicles. There's not a hybrid or electric vehicle in sight. Yes, oil production continues to grow. But it's difficult to imagine it keeping pace with the rise in car sales, economic activity, and gas-sucking traffic in China.
The beeping and the braking, the chalky air, the new terminal at Xi'an's airport, the blinking lights and the construction cranes that loom like sentries in the mist — all these are signs that China, which essentially sat out the 20th century, is finally standing up. Almost by definition, China's rising living standards will lead to more intensive resource use. As China's 1.3 billion people start to consume like Americans long have, we'd be well advised to figure out how to do more with less — and to read a little Malthus.
Daniel Gross is economics editor at Yahoo! Finance. He's traveling in China this week under the auspices of the China U.S. Exchange Foundation.
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