NOVEMBER 2014
A Conference Report of the
CSIS Korea Chair
Korean
Unification
in a New Era
editor
Victor Cha
Blank
Korean Unification
in a New Era
EDITOR
Victor Cha
A Conference Report of the CSIS Korea Chair
November 2014
ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD
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c 2014 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Korea Institute for
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ISBN: 978-1-4422-4049-0 (pb); 978-1-4422-4050-6 (eBook)
Acknowledgments
This volume is a report of the results and fi ndings from the international conference
“Korean Unifi cation in a New Era” held on September 4, 2014, at CSIS in Washington, D.C.
The conference was cohosted by the National Research Council for Economics, Humani-
ties, and Social Sciences (NRCS) and the Center for Strategic and International Studies
(CSIS) and was organized by the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP),
the Korea Institute for National Unifi cation (KINU), and the Korea Institute for Industrial
Economics and Trade (KIET).
Center for Strategic & International Studies Rowman & Littlefi eld
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| III
Executive Summary v
Dr. Victor Cha, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Introductory and Welcoming Remarks 1
Dr. Kang Eun Bong, National Research Council for Economics, Humanities, and
Social Sciences
Congratulatory Remarks 3
His Excellency Ambassador Ahn Ho- Young, Republic of Korea Ambassador to the United States
SESSION ONE: ECONOMICS OF KOREAN UNIFICATION 5
Panel A: The Economic Synergy Effect of Unifi cation of the Korean Peninsula 6
Dr. Marcus Noland, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Dr. Kim Dongsoo, Korean Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade
Dr. Jeong Hyung- Gon, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy
Mr. Matthew Goodman, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Panel B: Opening for Business: Foreign Investment after Unifi cation 18
Mr. Thomas Byrne, Moody’s Investors Ser vice
Mr. William Brown, Offi ce of the Director of National Intelligence
Dr. Sue Mi Terry, East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Dr. Park Hyeong- Jung, Korea Institute for National Unifi cation
LUNCHEON ADDRESS 31
Mr. Sydney Seiler, Special Envoy for Six- Party Talks, U.S. Department of State
SESSION TWO: KOREAN UNIFICATION AND
THE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT 37
Panel C: The Northeast Asian Perspective 38
Dr. Michael Green, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Dr. Park Ihn- hwi, Ewha Womans University
Mr. Christopher Johnson, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Mr. Bruce Klingner, Heritage Foundation
Contents
IV | VICTOR CHA
Panel D: Global Perspectives 50
Dr. Kurt Campbell, The Asia Group
Dr. Kim Jaechun, Sogang University
Ambassador Stapleton Roy, Wilson Center
Dr. Kim Yung Ho, Sungshin Women’s University
CLOSING REMARKS 62
Dr. Victor Cha, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Appendix 1. Conference Agenda 64
Appendix 2. Media Participants 66
Appendix 3. Participant Biographies 68
| V
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| V
Executive Summary: Analyzing the
Concept of “Jackpot” Unifi cation
Dr. Victor Cha, Center for Strategic and
International Studies
As a result of a speech delivered by Republic of Korea (ROK) president Park Geun- hye in
Dresden, Germany, on March 28, 2014, the topic of unifi cation of the Korean peninsula
has been on the minds of many. This is, of course, not the fi rst time that unifi cation has
been in the news. During the Cold War era, unifi cation was defi ned as the absolute mili-
tary victory of one side over the other. In Korean, this was known as “songgong t’ongil”
or “p’ukch’in t’ongil” (“march north” or “unifi cation by force”). In po liti cal science litera-
ture infl uenced by the Eu ro pean experience, it was defi ned as the perfect integration of
the two countries. After the reunifi cation of Germany on October 3, 1990, unifi cation was
seen as the economic and po liti cal absorption of one side by the other. And yet at other
times, it was defi ned, by both North and South Korea, as the imperfect operation of one
country, two systems. For a de cade during the period of “sunshine” policy, 1997?2007,
unifi cation was defi ned as something to be avoided for generations. It was framed as an
outcome that was too diffi cult to contemplate, too dangerous to suggest, and too expensive
to afford.
What is different about the current iteration of the unifi cation dialectic is Park Geun- hye’s
view of unifi cation as an opportunity or jackpot ??.
What does this mean? How is this formulation different from previous conceptions? And
what are the opportunities as well as the challenges inherent in unifi cation for Korea,
the United States, and the world?
To try to answer these questions, CSIS with the National Research Council for Econom-
ics, Humanities, and Social Sciences (NRCS), Korea Institute for International Economic
Policy (KIEP), Korea Institute for National Unifi cation (KINU), and Korea Institute for Indus-
trial Economics and Trade (KIET) or ga nized a two- day international conference on Septem-
ber 4, 2014, at CSIS headquarters in Washington, D.C. The title of the conference was
“Korean Unifi cation in a New Era.”
The conference panels were designed to analyze specifi cally the proposition that unifi -
cation is a “jackpot” as described by President Park. Two panels in the morning were
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VI | VICTOR CHA
devoted to in- depth analysis of the economic aspects of unifi cation. The fi rst panel addressed
the question of the economic opportunities that might be associated with unifi cation. The
second panel looked specifi cally at the business and investment opportunities/potential
with unifi cation. Participants in both panels were world experts, including economists and
sovereign ratings analysts, in addition to trade policy specialists.
The afternoon panels were devoted to the po liti cal and security opportunities with
unifi cation. The key question addressed in these sessions related to the so- called peace
dividend that might be associated with unifi cation and in par tic u lar the reactions of
regional players to a unifi ed Korea. Would they support such an outcome? And how
could they be helpful? The afternoon sessions were also populated with high- profi le
specialists, including former White House offi cials in both the Bush and Obama admin-
istrations.
There are a lot of unknowns about unifi cation that make forecasting diffi cult. There
are also known challenges that make unifi cation daunting. There are no two bordering
countries today with a larger income gap than that between the two Koreas, which poses
obvious integration challenges. This conference did not deny the many known diffi culties
associated with unifi cation. It did, however, seek to identify the positive elements amid
many of the unknown variables at play. Thus, it did not take on faith that unifi cation
would be “easy.”
Conference Proceedings and Agenda
The day started with some congratulatory remarks by the H. E. Ahn Ho- Young, South
Korea’s ambassador to the United States. In his remarks, Ambassador Ahn congratulated
the organizers for pulling together a so- called dream team of specialists on Korean unifi ca-
tion. The ambassador also hosted a dinner at his private residence in the eve ning to allow
speakers and discussants to continue the conversation from the morning and afternoon in
an off- the- record format.
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The conference took place in the main conference hall of CSIS with an attendance of
162, including national and international print and tele vi sion journalists (see Appendix 2
for a full list of media participants). The event was live streamed to audiences around the
world via the CSIS live Ustream channel, and throughout the day observers could follow
the conference through social media and tweet questions @CSISKoreaChair #CSISLive.
What follows is a summary of the key points gleaned from the day’s panel pre sen ta tions
and the discussions that followed each session.
A Framework for Conceptualizing the “Jackpot”
For so long, we have thought about unifi cation in terms of daunting costs, dangerous compe-
tition, and strategic instability. Undeniably there are many unknowns associated with
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | VII
unifi cation, and, over the years, these have become well studied. We have not positioned
ourselves well, however, to have a full understanding of unifi cation. A new framework
entails thinking not just about the risks, but also about the benefi ts associated with the
task. Here is a summary of the key assumptions that support a new framework to think
about unifi cation.
Key Assumptions
? The concept of “jackpot” is not based on blind optimism. Rather, it is the sober net
assessment of the benefi ts over the costs.
? Unifi cation is not a matter of “if,” but “when.”
? The key question is how we prepare today in ways that promote a peaceful and
prosperous outcome.
? Unifi cation is the middle ground.
? The end of the Korean division should be viewed po liti cally not as an extreme
po liti cal position for the right or the left. Instead, it should be viewed as occupy-
ing a wide middle ground, encompassing a large swath of the po liti cal spec-
trum.
? Unifi cation is a Korean issue, but one that will touch on the core interests of many in
the international community.
? Adequate preparation at the international level requires socializing neighbors
about the likely pro cess and shaping positive- sum solutions.
? Any unifi cation “policy” must now move beyond abstract ideas to concrete planning
and conceptualization of long- term unifi cation plans.
With this framework in mind, panelists and discussants analyzed the various chal-
lenges and opportunities in several key issue areas related to unifi cation. The important
takeaways from these discussions are listed below.
The Economics of Unifi cation
? The economics of unifi cation may not be as bad as people think. We always imagine
the worst and have been conditioned to think that way.
? Unifi cation will slow South Korean growth, but peninsular growth will rise
dramatically; moreover, poverty levels on the peninsula will decline
dramatically.
? The cost line for unifi cation will initially be steep. The benefi t line will initially
look fl at. But ultimately these two lines will cross each other.
VIII | VICTOR CHA
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VIII | VICTOR CHA
Costs Costs
Benefits
Time
KRW
? The synergy effects of unifi cation, including vertical economic and business integra-
tion, human capital, and poverty reduction, will benefi t not only South Koreans; they
will disproportionately benefi t North Koreans.
? There are many areas of great investment potential with unifi cation, including in
textiles, metals, rail, and tourism.
? Fair liquidation of government assets, own ership, private investment, and the devel-
opment of equity markets (which took 12?15 years in China and Vietnam) are impor-
tant preconditions for foreign direct investment.
? In the efforts to raise production levels in the north, it is important to protect the
South Korean system in a unifi cation pro cess, particularly in terms of fi nancial
solvency and credibility.
The International Context of Unifi cation
? There is no more potent variable for change in the international system than the
collapse of a regime and the resulting power vacuum. Unifi cation should not open
this space to eighteenth- century zero- sum balance- of- power politics but instead
should be a path to a twenty- fi rst- century security community in Asia where emerg-
ing patterns of trust and cooperation rule out the possibility of confl ict.
? Korea needs China’s tacit cooperation at a minimum for unifi cation, and therefore
Korea must continue a high- level strategic dialogue bilaterally or trilaterally by
including the United States. Seoul, however, must also convey clear red lines on
Chinese actions because Seoul’s interests do not overlap perfectly with those of
Beijing.
? Korea and the United States must be sensitive to the fact that unifi cation will leave
China as the only divided country left in Asia, which may have deleterious effects on
its views of Taiwan.
? Relations with Japan are in need of dramatic improvement because public opinion
on current relations has shifted in a wholly unfavorable direction. This in turn
could impact Japa nese perceptions of unifi cation. Improved relations between the
two countries are important for future unifi cation of the peninsula.
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | IX
? Rus sia will be an important role player in unifi cation. It can act as a repository state
for fi ssile material and be a potential cooperative partner in areas like energy and
transportation, especially rail, infrastructure.
? The United States will want to maintain an alliance with a united Korea and will act
to support the realization of a twenty- fi rst- century security community.
? The United Nations and the international community will value a transparent unifi -
cation pro cess.
Humanitarianism and Unifi cation
? Unifi cation is a human right.
? Although many southerners will do well with unifi cation, the biggest winners
will be the North Korean people.
? A key to North Koreans believing that unifi cation is in their interest is own ership,
not aid or handouts.
? Although many of the costs and benefi ts of unifi cation are quantifi able, there are
some unquantifi able factors that will nonetheless be signifi cant. The psychological
benefi ts are not easily mea sured, but they will be signifi cant.
All of these points and more are covered in the ensuing pages of this report, which
includes a transcript of the recorded proceedings of the day.
| 1
Introductory and
Welcoming Remarks
Dr. Kang Eun Bong, National Research Council
for Economics, Humanities, and Social Sciences
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| 1
Introductory and
Welcoming Remarks
Dr. Kang Eun Bong, National Research Council
for Economics, Humanities, and Social Sciences
H
is Excellency Ambassador Ahn, Dr. Victor Cha, and distinguished guests, fi rst of all
I would like to express my deepest appreciation to the prominent policymakers and
experts from Korea and the United States for attending this conference, despite your busy
schedule. On behalf of NRCS of Korea, my special thanks goes to Dr. Cha, who has made
great efforts to host this meaningful event.
Ladies and gentlemen, Northeast Asia is one of the most dynamic regions of the world.
The region has been increasingly contributing to the global economy. However, the most
concerning factor on the security as well as economic front is North Korea. North Korea
should make the right choice to be a responsible member of the international community.
In order to induce North Korea to make that choice, it is important for us to speak with one
voice. The message must be clear and consistent.
Under this recognition, President Park Geun- hye suggested a vision for the Korea- U.S.
alliance in an address to the joint session of the United States Congress last year. President
Park emphasized that we should lay the groundwork for enduring peace and reunifi cation
on the Korean peninsula, and that we need to make a mechanism of peace and cooperation
in Northeast Asia. The trust- building pro cess on the Korean peninsula, as we all know,
includes developing inter- Korean relations, establishing peace on the Korean peninsula,
and laying the groundwork for unifi cation.
President Park also proposed the Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative. We
witnessed the nations of Northeast Asia region failed to fulfi ll it collectively. The region
suffers from the Asia paradox, disconnection between growing economic interdependence
and backward po liti cal and security cooperation. The way we manage this paradox will
determine the shape of new order in the region. We cannot afford to put off the multilat-
eral dialogue pro cess in Northeast Asia.
It could also reinforce President Obama’s strategy of rebalancing towards the Asia- Pacifi c.
I believe that especially the U.S., together with Korea should take an active part in this
endeavor so these ideas bear fruit.
2 | VICTOR CHA
As President Park emphasized, Korean unifi cation would be an immea sur able bonanza
for any nation with interest on the Korean peninsula. Unifi cation on the Korean peninsula
will contribute not only to the prosperity of Korea but also to the peace and prosperity of
Northeast Asia and the rest of the world. A peaceful and unifi ed Korea that is free from the
fear of war will be a catalyst for economic development in Northeast Asia. Since German
unifi cation in 1990, Germany has emerged from the backwater to become the growth
engine of the Eu ro pean economy. That is a powerful testimony to the tremendous potential
of Korean unifi cation.
At this conference, policymakers and experts from the U.S. and Korea have joined today
to discuss the way to prepare for unifi cation. I ask all of you to gather your wisdom to make
Korean unifi cation come earlier for the prosperity of the world beyond Northeast Asia. I hope
today’s conference would serve as an opportunity for all of us to understand each other
better and build friendships. Thank you very much.
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| 3
Congratulatory Remarks
His Excellency Ambassador Ahn Ho- Young, Republic
of Korea Ambassador to the United States
G
ood morning. I will start with an analogy from the world of sports. In the world of
sports, they have an expression, which is “dream team.” I was just checking some data
to see where it started from, and I came to fi nd that dream team started with basketball
teams and then it moved to football, and then it moved to wrestling, and then in Korea, it
moved to archery, right? Dream teams are spreading, which is a good thing. Why do I tell
you about dream team? It’s because I just went through the list of speakers for today’s semi-
nar, and I said, “This is a dream team.”
If you want to form a dream team of Asian experts, I said myself, you don’t have to go
too far; you can come to CSIS this morning. I’m looking at you, the members of the dream
team. They have a task for today, which is to discuss unifi cation of Korea. When it comes
to unifi cation, there is one proposition in which I strongly believe. In this hall there
will be many of you who will be sharing this same proposition with me, which is?it
is not a question of if; it’s a question of when. It will happen eventually, but we do not
know when.
What should we be doing today in order to promote the pro cess of unifi cation and be
better prepared for it? I can think of at least three things that we should be doing together
even today.
First thing on my mind would be better understanding about what unifi cation means.
Earlier today, Victor Cha was talking about how it could be risky, it could be dangerous, it
could be costly, and I agree with everything that Victor said. But at the same time, we in
fact have to think about all the benefi ts which will be accruing from unifi cation. Both
Victor as well as Dr. Kang talked about economic benefi ts, and then on top of it there would
be security benefi ts, and then on top of it these days we are talking more and more about
humanitarian benefi ts, but at the same time there is no assurance. It would be costly, it
would be risky, but at the same time there can be benefi ts, although nothing is written in
stone and concrete. As a matter of fact, it would depend very much upon our attitudes and
mindset that will determine how costly unifi cation would be. It will depend upon our
mindset, as well, that will determine how risky unifi cation could be. At the same time our
mindset and understanding will determine how benefi cial unifi cation could be. So that’s
4 | VICTOR CHA
the fi rst thing that we should be doing, which is a better understanding about what unifi ca-
tion means for each and every one of us.
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The second action we could be taking even today would be to strengthen engagement
between South Korea and North Korea. I know, again, it is not easy. It is not easy today. It
has not been easy for the past 70 years. It has not been easy because of ideological differ-
ences, because of the Korean War, because of weapons of mass destruction, because of all
those unnecessary provocations. I reiterate “unnecessary provocations,” and all of these
issues made it diffi cult for us to engage North Korea, but even then engagement is some-
thing necessary. President Park made a speech at Dresden. In the Dresden speech, I think
my president mentioned at least three points: humanitarian exchanges, economic infra-
structure, as well as cultural exchanges. All of them, to the extent we can do it today, to the
extent that through the pro cess of trust- building pro cess, we in fact should be extending
the scope and contents of our exchanges between South and North Korea. That would be
the second thing we can and we must do today.
The third thing, which I think we can do today, would be engagement with countries
around the world with interest in the unifi cation of Korea. Why do I say that? It is because
when we talk about this issue of unifi cation, we often talk about the lesson of Germany. Dr.
Kang has already mentioned the lesson of Germany. I think one lesson of Germany would
be the importance of engagement with neighboring countries with deep interests in the
unifi cation pro cess. At that time, people were saying German unifi cation, if it in fact was a
success or the outcome of bad politics. But, at the same time, there were far more people
who were saying it was not so much bad politics, but the good politics, which in fact at the
end of the day helped make German unifi cation something that the neighbors could accept.
So that, I think, would be another German lesson for understanding Korean unifi cation.
I think these three are the things which we can do, we must do, in order to promote the
pro cess of unifi cation and at the same time, so that we will be better prepared when the
day comes. We in fact end up with a unifi ed Korea. So better understanding, that’s some-
thing we can do. And more engagement between South and North Korea, that’s something
we can do. And engagement with the countries with deep interest in the unifi cation of
Korea, that’s something we can do. I think I can afford to be brief today. Why? Because as I
told you, these issues, we are going to discuss all day long. By whom? By the dream team of
Asian experts. So thank you so much, and I look forward to our seminar today. Thank you.
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SESSION ONE: ECONOMICS
OF KOREAN UNIFICATION
6 |
Panel A: Th e Economic Synergy
Eff ect of Unifi cation of the
Korean Peninsula
Dr. Marcus Noland, Peterson Institute
for International Economics
Thank you very much. It is an honor to be invited to address this group. My secret dream is
that I’ve always wanted to be six- nine and play power forward in the NBA, so I suppose this
is the closest I’m ever going to get to being a member on a dream team.
The United States has a strong economic and po liti cal interest in seeing Korea unifi ed as
a demo cratic capitalist state. The specifi cs of U.S. involvement are partly contingent on the
unifi cation scenario. Excluding the horrifi c possibility of war, unifi cation scenarios basi-
cally come down to two: a protracted consensual pro cess in which North Korea maintains
sovereignty for some signifi cant transitional period, and an abrupt collapse and absorption
scenario along the lines of the German experience.
Earlier this year, the Ilmin Institute of International Relations surveyed 135 experts,
a term I use advisedly in this context. The consensus coming out of this group, or at least
the modal response of these experts, was that the life expectancy of the Kim Jong-un
regime was something like 10 to 20 years. A majority 64 percent expected the regime to
fall through internal power struggle and that unifi cation with the south would be the
fi nal end point of that pro cess. This implies that the consensus of these experts tends
toward that second abrupt collapse and absorption scenario. With respect to that sce-
nario, as the United States has learned quite painfully in Af ghan i stan and Iraq, the
establishment of civil order is absolutely critical. If there were prolonged violent opposi-
tion to South Korean rule, quarantine or something akin to the Israel? West Bank? Gaza
situation could emerge on the Korean peninsula, which would obviously impede eco-
nomic recovery.
Rapid clarifi cation of property rights will be essential under either scenario. Without
clarifi cation of property rights, there will not be investment, and without investment, there
will not be recovery. I think that some of the most important lessons of the German case
have been miscomprehended or ignored. One is the importance of the clarifi cation of
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 7
property rights. The Germans pursued restitution that slowed down the pro cess of clarify-
ing property rights and getting investment.
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The second and the bigger thing which I think is genuinely misunderstood is that the
monetary conversion rate at the time of unifi cation was not the primary cause for the
collapse of East Germany. It was the subsequent behavior of East German wages, and that
was very much a product of German policy.
The good news is that Korean unifi cation would accelerate peninsula growth and lead
to a dramatic reduction in poverty. The bad news is that the price tag could easily exceed 1
trillion dollars or something on the order of 100 percent of annual GDP.
Estimates of the impact on the United States’ economy vary widely. The key issue is the
extent of reform in North Korea. Ironically, from an analytical standpoint, it’s actually
easier to do the analysis in the collapse and the absorption scenario, because existing
sanctions, legislations, and things like that become moot, because North Korea has disap-
peared as a sovereign state.
The other thing about unifi cation from the United States’ standpoint is that the United
States can contribute to fi nancing unifi cation, but I want to emphasize that the role of the
private sector would be absolutely crucial, and that is the topic of the second session we are
going to have. The U.S. public sector can do a fair amount, but private- sector involvement is
really what is going to be decisive.
So what are our starting points? I’m going to?as a good economist? assume away mass
violence, what ever the pro cess, whether it be consensual or a collapse. If it’s a collapse, it’s
more like the East German collapse, where there is not violent opposition.
Human capital in North Korea may be lower than expected. There is considerable
evidence that the education system has deteriorated quite substantially over the last 20
years. Environmental degradation is likely to be extensive and may be quite expensive to
clean up, especially if South Korean environmental standards are applied. The implication
for North Korea? and this is more important under the prolonged consensual unifi cation
scenario?is that the growing centrality of the mining sector is associated throughout the
world specifi cally in transitional economies with corrupt, familial- based autocracies that
are evident in parts of Central Asia today. That is the trajectory that North Korea is on. It’s
not a particularly good, pretty picture, but the good news is that North Korea has South
Korea. One cannot imagine a better asset to have in the pro cess of unifi cation than South
Korea as a partner. North Korea’s population is a bit younger than South Korea’s, so that
should help.
My survey evidence that was reported in a paper that was released earlier this year by
the U.S.- Korea Institute at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)
at Johns Hopkins University suggests a relatively disciplined and productive labor force in
North Korea. There are pockets of excellence, though sadly these tend to be in things like
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8 | VICTOR CHA
missiles. In terms of the economics of the absorption, product market integration between
North and South Korea would not have a big impact on South Korea. Think about Mexico
integrating with the United States and NAFTA, or a small Eu ro pean country joining the EU.
It may affect specifi c communities, specifi c fi rms, or specifi c industries, but from a macro-
economic standpoint, North Korea is simply too small to have a major impact on the South
Korean economy if all that integrates are product markets. The issue changes dramatically
when we allow factor market integration. That is if labor markets start to integrate between
the two countries? people are allowed to cross the DMZ - and investment goes from South
Korea to North Korea.
My own work, based on a multisector, computer- generated, macro- equilibrium model,
suggests that among the key issues are the rapidity of technological transfer, upgrading,
and productivity increase. Obviously, the faster productivity ramps up in North Korea, the
lower the ultimate price tag will be in unifi cation. How much labor migrates to the south?
How much capital would be invested in the north? How much of that comes from South
Korea? How much comes from third parties? Is it capital that is invested on a profi t- seeking
basis or is it grant aid? As I indicated, my works suggest that over a de cade the cost of
unifi cation, defi ned as the amount of capital investment needed to raise North Korean
income to the 60 percent of those in the south, would exceed a trillion dollars, which is
roughly in the same ballpark as the fi gure put out earlier this year by the South Korean
Ministry of Finance. It would have distributional implications in South Korea. There would
be a shift in the distribution of income from labor to capital, and from within labor, from
relatively low- skilled labor to high- skilled labor. So absent compensatory policies by the
South Korean government, the pro cess of economic integration would be accompanied by
widening wealth and income in e qual ity. There are possibilities that different sectors of the
economy, what we economists call traded goods versus nontraded goods, would be affected
differentially.
South Korea would not be hurt in absolute terms. I want to make this quite clear, though
the growth rate in South Korea would slow. The peninsular growth rate overall, however,
would accelerate and there would be a dramatic reduction in poverty. To me, the policy
implications for South Korea are that engagement to encourage as much transformation as
possible within North Korea is a precondition to reconciliation, and, eventually, unifi cation
is desirable. South Korea ought to be running a bud get surplus to basically put away
money for eventually unifi cation costs. There is a need to strengthen the Korean Fair
Trade Commission to make sure anticompetitive practices are not practiced in North Korea
as they were in East Germany post- unifi cation. In terms of the monetary union, the Bank of
Korea ought to be working very diligently to understand what the North Korean real
exchange rate is and, as I mentioned with the case of Germany, focus on wage setting, not
the initial conversion rate, which is where the German case went wrong. Possibly, most
critically, it is essential to clarify property rights quickly in order to get investment. What
you want is compensation, not restitution. If people have claims on property in North
Korea, they can be compensated, but you don’t want them in some legal pro cess in which
the own ership rights of the assets are contested and the assets deteriorate. So, the principles
371 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 03:48:34 ID:c0925434e [sage]
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 9
are compensation, not restitution, and own ers of capital with “skin in the game” to restrain
wages. “Land to the tiller,” that is to say give North Korean farmers the land they are
currently operating so they can continue to do it. It would increase productivity and reduce
the incentives to migrate, and while you may ultimately want to see privatization of assets,
this has to be done very carefully so it doesn’t become a fi re sale as happened in the case of
Germany.
For the United States, which of these two basic scenarios obtains, whether it be the pro-
longed consensual unifi cation pro cess or a more abrupt pro cess, matters. Successful rehabili-
tation of the North Korean economy, under either scenario, will lead to the expansion of
trade with the United States that would largely consist of North Korea shipping light manu-
factured goods to the United States in return for capital goods and agricultural products.
Other products that North Korea produces, such as metals, may well be purchased by U.S.
fi rms for assembling operations. For example, in the electronic sector elsewhere in Asia, so
they might be considered indirect imports by the United States. There would be an expansion
of ser vices trade, as well, basically business ser vices exports from the United States to North
Korea, and North Korea exporting tourism ser vices to the United States. One issue that might
be different under the two scenarios, in the kind of protracted scenario where North Korea
remains sovereign for some considerable period of time, labor standards issues may become
quite important, at least under the standpoint of United States investors.
U.S. interaction with North Korea today is constrained by a dense web of sanctions and
other mea sures. In the consensual scenario, those may require executive and/or congres-
sional action for their removal, and I think this is important for the South Korean audience
to understand. Even if there is rapprochement between Seoul and Pyongyang, it doesn’t
automatically follow that the United States will start changing its laws with respect to
North Korea. That would not be such a big deal in the collapse and absorption scenario
because those mea sures would effectively become moot. In either event, Annex 22B of the
KORUS Agreement, could be used to jump- start American action with North Korea, if you
have, for example, in the case of Germany, the brief period when the German Social Demo-
crats ran the East German government under the fi nal prime minister, Lothar de Maiziere.
In terms of fi nance, as I indicated, unifi cation is likely to be expensive. There is a role
for the U.S. to play both bilaterally and through international fi nancial institutions. The
capacity of the United States government to contribute to this pro cess is going to be par-
tially a function of the U.S. fi scal position. And the U.S. fi scal position over the next 10 to
20 years is highly uncertain. But I want to emphasize that unifi cation fi nance should not
be thought of strictly as a public- sector activity.
Indeed, the private sector will have a critical role to play, as well. Probably, the most
important U.S. economic contribution to the pro cess is likely to come through the private
sector for foreign direct investment, which constitutes the institutional mechanism for
both technology transfer and the links to the marketing and distribution network globally
that North Korea currently lacks. The basic problem of the North Korean economy is that
372 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 03:49:42 ID:c0925434e [sage]
10 | VICTOR CHA
you have a certain amount of latent potential, but they literally do not have the potential
nerve synapses to connect that latent potential to the global market. That’s where foreign
direct investment will be so critical, and that is where the U.S. will really have an impact.
In that context, aid should seek to compliment, not substitute for those private- sector
activities, and, indeed, should try to be oriented in a way to, in fact, encourage additional
private- sector fi nancial infl ows. I thank you for your attention, and I look forward to our
subsequent discussion.
Dr. Kim Dongsoo, Korean Institute for
Industrial Economics and Trade
Good morning. I am more than happy to join the dream team this morning. It is really an
honor to present my paper here. This morning I am going to talk about the economic synergy
effect of unifi cation. Before doing that, I am going to talk about the premises of economic
integration, go over the synergy effects by industrial sectors, and then I will conclude.
In order to discuss the economic impact of unifi cation, we need to think about economic
integration. Sometimes I am not quite sure about economic integration. It seems like it is a
bigger concept than unifi cation. Probably, this morning, I am going to mess up the termi-
nology between economic integration and unifi cation. Please forgive me.
The path of unifi cation is really determined by the initial condition of the North Korean
economy. That is why the speed and course of economic integration or reunifi cation is really
important, not only for the two Koreas, but also neighboring countries such as China and
Japan.
There is a lot of literature that talks about the pro cess of unifi cation. Two pro cesses are
possible, gradual and radical unifi cation. Gradual unifi cation might be the ideal case right
after signifi cant economic growth of the overall North Korean economy; then we may have
unifi cation. But this is hard to achieve. When we think about economic integration, the
case of radical unifi cation might be more realistic. There are still two possible situations.
One is intermediate- complete integration and the second is gradual- partial integration.
In order to talk about the economic synergy effect, I need some kind of premise for
economic integration. Firstly, after economic integration, North Korea is supposed to
immediately adapt to a market economy. The second one, after unifi cation, there will still
be wage disparities between the two Koreas. Otherwise, it will be really diffi cult to think
about integration.
Before discussing the synergy effect, I am next going to talk about the South Korean
economic situation. We do face challenges. Firstly, we do have a strong neighborhood. You
may have heard about the sandwich theory, mentioned by the CEO of Samsung, Lee Kun- hee.
He initiated the sandwich theory term in 1992. South Korea looks like a sandwich located
between China and Japan. We believe the technology disparity, the gap between South
374 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 03:55:27 ID:c0925434e [sage]
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 11
Korea and China, has been lessening, while the technology gap between South Korea and
Japan is widening. That is what we face right now. A lot of industrial experts really worry
about that.
The other challenge we face is that we are one of the fastest- aging societies. The number
of people in their 40s?50s is almost double compared to teenagers under 10 in South Korea.
The population distribution in 2010, the shape of a pyramid, is very unbalanced. We are
going to be facing problems in the next 20?30 years, with a lack of production labor forces.
We are also facing a sort of deadlock on the industries side. Compared to 1995?2012, the
structural industries still have not changed much. The steel sectors, automobiles, refi ner-
ies, chemicals, and machineries are the main key manufacturing industries in Korea, and
we haven’t moved too much to the IT sectors, even though we are famous for that.
The potential of North Korea is pretty rosy to us. They have abundant resources and
human capital. According to the Bank of Korea, coal and iron are abundant. As for the
railroad and transportation infrastructure, the quality is pretty poor. However, the rail-
road land is pretty abundant; a lot bigger than South Korea’s. The labor cost in Kaesong is
an annual income of $1,500. This is a lot lower compared to Beijing, Qingdao, or Jakarta.
So we may use lower labor force costs, if we have unifi cation with wage differences.
Overall, the effect of unifi cation is pretty prosperous, not only for Korea but also for the
Northeast Asia region. I believe the po liti cal stability on the peninsula will bring the same
synergy effects in manufacturing, logistics, and energy. We should also think about the
energy and transportation systems in Northeast Asia, such as the transcontinental railroad,
which runs from Tokyo to London, and the network gas pipelines in Northeast Asia. That
may bring multilateral cooperation to Northeast Asia countries. I believe unifi cation will
also bring more business opportunities, at least in 50 years. Absolutely we will need to
rebuild North Korea from their backward industrial linkage and this investment demand
will bring more opportunities in Northeast Asia.
Let me go over it sector by sector briefl y. I believe unifi cation will trigger industrial
restructuring in Korea. There might be enhancement in labor- intensive industries, such as
machineries, textiles, electrics, and chemicals. There is also some potential in IT sectors. I
don’t know how they educate people, but their IT, software skills, and technologies are
pretty outstanding. North Korean hacking skills are one of the top. So we may use those
kind of technologies in a reunifi ed Korea. South Korea is losing competitiveness in the steel
industry, that is a traditional manufacturing sector, because of higher labor costs. For
example, the average age of the labor force in the steel industry is over 45 years old. We
lose productivity. China has already surpassed South Korea. If we can use the labor force
in North Korea, with their relatively lower labor costs, then we could still be competitive.
Also, we could use a lot of the natural resources in North Korea. We could imagine verti-
cal integration in chemicals. In Korea, refi neries and petrochemicals show good prospects.
Again, the same thing happened in these sectors with higher labor costs.
375-1 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 03:56:36 ID:c0925434e [sage]
12 | VICTOR CHA
We could also think about transportation machinery and equipment, such as automo-
bile production facilities. We could make North Korea a hub for the Chinese market rather
than going abroad. Hyundai had seven production factories all over the world. So we could
build one for the Chinese market in North Korea.
Let me address environmental issues. There might be serious environment deteriora-
tion in North Korea. This will bring more opportunity for investment.
The aerospace and defense industrial sector is a rosy sector. The technology in that sector
is also at a very high- level worldwide.
The last sector I’d like to discuss is the ser vice sector. That is the most underdeveloped
sector in North Korea. We could think about the business opportunities as we will need to
build up the fi nancial system, commercial system, logistics and a lot of business ser vices,
and manufacturing ser vices. All of these ser vices would need to be established in North
Korea.
Let me conclude. It is really diffi cult to think about the synergy effect of unifi cation
without real data. Offi cial data of North Korea is very limited and when it is available we
cannot trust that data. The Bank of Korea provides a small number of statistics, but that is
not very reliable. Even census data of North Korea is very outdated; so we cannot trust that
either. However, I believe there is still potential for industrial cooperation between the two
Koreas. Because the two Koreas are totally complementary in terms of factor endowment,
there might be huge benefi ts if we can unify. Again, similar to the way Samsung moved
mobile production to Vietnam semiconductor production to Xi’an, China, if we can use
North Korea as a production site, that will give us a lot of opportunities. In South Korea
right now, because of higher labor cost, we are opening to the foreign workers and there
are a lot of illegal foreign workers in South Korea. If we can use the North Korean work-
force, that will be benefi cial. The synergy effect of unifi cation is not a matter of how, but a
matter of possibility. The cost of unifi cation at the fi rst stage will be huge while the benefi t
will be increasing. However, I believe in a generation or two, the cost will be all gone. But
the benefi ts will be perpetual, I believe. Unifi cation is going to give us a very good opportu-
nity. I believe that is feasible in the long run.
A lot of people have asked me, “Do you really want unifi cation?” Yes, I do. “Are you ready
to pay for that?” Well, I don’t know. Probably for my daughter, she will pay that cost. We
really need to prepare for the unifi cation pretty soon. Unifi ed Korea will have a population
of 75 million. That is a pretty good number, slightly bigger than the UK and France, but
slightly smaller than Germany. I think the 75 million people of a unifi ed Korea will have
great potential.
However, there are a lot of obstacles against unifi cation. Again, a generation gap exists
and the next generation doesn’t care much about unifi cation. Plus, there are a lot of stake-
holders for unifi cation. I don’t think neighborhood countries such as Japan and China, really
want a unifi ed Korea in terms of industrial competitiveness.
375-2 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 03:56:36 ID:c0925434e [sage]
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 13
The most ideal way to unify, I believe, will be through economic exchange fi rst with
industrial cooperation. We hope that North Korea becomes like China in 1970s or 1980s. We
hope that North Korea will open their economy. Then we could just exchange our industrial
cooperation and unify. Then we would hope to achieve full- fl edged economic integration.
Dr. Jeong Hyung- Gon, Korea Institute
for International Economic Policy
Thank you very much for the kind introduction, Victor. Let me fi rst express my sincere
appreciation to CSIS for making this session possible. It was very interesting for me to hear
two pre sen ta tions on the economic synergy effect of Korean unifi cation from different
points of view. Recently there has been a wide- ranging and active analysis of the effect of
Korean unifi cation. Following the recent statement of President Park Geun- hye, who de-
scribed Korean unifi cation as a bonanza, despite the diversity, recent publications and
analysis pointed out the common conclusion that unifi ed Korea would experience rapid
economic growth and would provide full growth with respect to global demands, which
will be benefi cial not only for South Korea’s neighboring countries, such as the U.S., Japan,
China, and Rus sia, but also for the global economy as a whole. It appears that both Dr.
Noland and Dr. Kim have reached a similar conclusion. Although there is a whole range of
benefi ts that could be expected from Korean unifi cation, the most signifi cant would be the
two Koreas’ effective integration in terms of division of labor and cooperation, thus achiev-
ing economies of scale. North Korea can improve its total factor productivity by taking
advantage of the capital movement from South Korea and foreign countries that possess
advance technologies.
Additionally, this would bring North Korea closer to South Korea’s infrastructure, and
raise North Korea’s input and coeffi cient to a level similar to South Korea’s, leading to the
resolution of ineffi ciencies associated with course input in North Korea. Dr. Noland described
and outlined this pro cess very clearly by utilizing factor market integration. The positive
effects and benefi ts generated from the Korean unifi cation will no doubt benefi t both Koreas.
However, the people of North Korea will receive the greatest share of those benefi ts. The
extent of those benefi ts might vary depending on the form of unifi cation, but any form of
unifi cation not involving a war will lead to an exponential growth of North Korea’s GDP,
and growth in wages and well conception among the North Korean population. Trade by
North Korea with other countries would also grow by leaps and bounds, and its industrial
structure would undergo rapid transformation.
Another added benefi t for North Korea in the event of unifi cation with South Korea is
that North Korea will also become a benefi ciary of the FTAs South Korea has concluded
with many other countries. Countries currently trading with South Korea would also have
economic gains from the unifi cation of the Korean peninsula. By diversifying the scenarios
for unifi cation and conducting the CG analyses for them, as Noland did in his previous
other studies, we can determine the potential GDP changes in South and North Korea in
376 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 03:57:22 ID:c0925434e [sage]
14 | VICTOR CHA
each scenario. And if we expand our range of analysis, and include the U.S., China, Japan,
and Rus sia, we can calculate the GDP for those other countries, as well. This is exactly what
our institution did recently, and we found that the level of gain for each country differs
depending on the pace and direction of the given scenarios. As a whole, however, it was
discovered that our neighboring countries eventually benefi ted from Korean unifi cation.
Then again, the biggest winner from the unifi cation is inarguably the people of North
Korea. And it is urgent and very important that we let them know. It is exactly to empha-
size its urgency that President Park Geun- hye described unifi cation as a bonanza, and she
reiterated and added to her point when she visited Dresden this past May, stating that
Korean unifi cation is a bonanza not just for Korea but all countries near the Northeast
Asian countries.
The next logical step for President Park Geun- hye is to make a strong push for her argu-
ment that unifi cation represents the biggest bonanza for the people of North Korea. At this
point, I would like to remind everyone that unifi cation cannot happen through the effort
of South Korea alone. It is something that is only possible when the people of North Korea
respond positively, and only then the unifi cation will become a bonanza for everyone in
the Korean peninsula. So it is crucial that we impress upon the North Korean people the
benefi ts of unifi cation for the north, and this is the point that cannot be understated.
There is one more point that I would like to raise concerning the unifi cation issue. I would
like to point out that there has been a lot of discussion on the costs and benefi ts of unifi ca-
tion in relative terms. There has not been much debate on which scenario, perhaps, repre-
sents the most effective policy for reunifi cation. So my question for our presenters actually
links to this point. Dr. Noland and Kim have analyzed the economic effect of different
scenarios on Korean unifi cation. So my question is, which of those scenarios represents the
most effective form of unifi cation eco nom ically? Which one is the best when considering
existing po liti cal and social limitations of South and North Korea? And what are some of
the policies that the South Korean government needs to implement in order to bring unifi -
cation in accordance with those scenarios? So, ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude my
comments and questions. Thank you for your attention.
Mr. Matthew Goodman, Center for
Strategic and International Studies
Thank you, Victor. I am really honored to be up here. To extend the sports meta phors, I am
a big baseball fan. I feel a little like a rookie up here coming to bat after some Hall of Fame
sluggers have just gone up. I have not done the same kind of deep analysis of this subject as
these gentlemen, so my comments will be largely as a layman looking at this in a common-
sense point of view, trying to reinforce some of the points they are making, and maybe
asking a couple of questions. I would start by just asking the audience for a little empathy
for everybody up here because this is an incredibly hard subject to try to analyze, as
economic analysis is always. Prognostication is always very diffi cult. But I think here,
377 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 03:59:25 ID:c0925434e [sage]
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 15
you’ve got a lot of known and unknown unknowns, including what is going on in North
Korea, which is truly unknown to all of us. I think we have to admit that, certainly from
an economic perspective, you do not know what the nature of this transition might be and
when it is going to start and how it’s going to proceed. It is very hard to do any economic
analysis with that kind of moving target. Of course, we do not know whether the dynamic
effects would be positive or negative in that transition. So I will just start prefacing all this
by saying that this is a really diffi cult task for all of us.
Broadly speaking, I think it is right to say that there will be economic synergy if there
is a transition to ultimate reunifi cation of the peninsula. Certainly, there is complementar-
ity of the two economies and resource endowments. The north having minerals and cheap
labor and starting from such a low base and the south having capital, technology, and
sophisticated effi cient markets suggests that there is an opportunity here for real long- term
synergy. People smarter than me at Goldman Sachs said there is a possibility this could be,
ultimately, an economy that is more competitive and larger than Germany. Certainly as a
theoretical longer- term proposition, I think, clearly, there is a synergy.
But, again, there are a lot of unknowns here, as has been alluded to by previous speak-
ers. We don’t know the real condition of North Korean labor stock. Capital stock could be
much weaker than we think. Again, dynamic effects of a sudden collapse and absorption, if
that is the principal scenario here, and particularly with that scenario, including migration
effects, are very uncertain. The UN has noted that these two economies have the largest
income gap of any countries sharing a border anywhere in the world. So there has never
been a pre ce dent of bringing together widely divergent economies in terms of income. I
think we have to be honest in that we don’t know exactly how that synergy is going to be
created, or even whether it will end in some specifi c respect.
I think the other piece that, of course, everybody has touched on, is the German example
and how much that’s relevant. I just thought I would offer few thoughts on that. It is in-
structive, but clearly there are also limits to the German example as a model. Frankly, the
experience of Germany is not entirely comforting either from a Korean perspective. As for
similarities, obviously they are two populations that are of roughly similar size, roughly 75
million in both cases. You have a socialist command economy on one side, supported by a
large neighbor, versus a dynamic market- based economy aligned with the U.S. Obvious
similarities in po liti cal economy in both places. But the differences are also quite striking.
West Germany had a population three to four times as large as East Germany’s popula-
tion. Whereas the Koreas have, I think, a ratio of two to one. So I think that, by itself, raises
questions about how this absorption will be different. Obviously Korea has been divided
for nearly 70 years, whereas Germany was divided for more like 40- plus years. And it feels
like things were converging in Germany on a lot of levels, and synapses were corrected and
connected even before the wall fell in a way it doesn’t seem to be happening in Korea. In
fact, if anything, in the last few years it seems to be moving the other direction. And then,
importantly, East Germany’s GDP per capita was about one- third of West Germany’s at the
378-1 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:00:09 ID:c0925434e [sage]
16 | VICTOR CHA
start of pro cess. Whereas North Korea is something like 5 or 6 percent of South Korea’s
today. So South Korea is about 15 to 20 times larger in per capita income.
All of that suggests that, compared with Germany, this well could be a much more chal-
lenging pro cess. It could take a lot longer and be more expensive. And, as I alluded to, even
at the end point, the German experiences are not yet totally fi nished. It’s taken 25 years so
far and is still incomplete. Unemployment is still double, nearly double I think, what it is in
the east to what it is in the west. Wages are only 70?80 percent of the west. Richer western
states are still paying solidarity taxes to the eastern states.
It’s been estimated that the total cost of the German pro cess has been close to two tril-
lion dollars today and is still accumulating. I think there are reasons to be not necessarily
comforted by the German experience, even if it is a lesson. But of course the good news is
that most Germans are much better off today than in 1989. It was only 50 years before an
East German was elected as the chancellor of unifi ed Germany. Germany has become a
po liti cal and economic center of gravity of the Eu ro pean Union. There are a lot of reasons
for thinking of that example as if it were an analogous model that would be ultimately
positive for Korea.
The fi nal thing is that it is possible, on the other hand, that this transition could be not
quite as painful as people would think in practice. I think it depends a lot on whether,
looking at this situation today where there is this huge gap that has to be closed over a
certain period of time, this pro cess starts after a point of some convergence. So it really
depends on what the starting point is. Although, I must say, this does remind me of the old
joke about the driver who is out in the countryside lost and stops to ask a farmer how to get
to the town that he is going to. The farmer says, “Well, I would not start from here.” So I
admit we are in the world we are in. It’s possible, short of some real reform and opening in
North Korea that leads to more gradual consensus unifi cation, that you could have an
improvement in living conditions in North Korea that would raise that base and create
better preconditions for unifi cation. Whether some of the market- based reforms that may
or may not be under way through reports of rising prices and construction boom in Pyong-
yang. I wonder whether there any improvements going on within which could close the gap
before the unifi cation pro cess.
378-2 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:00:09 ID:c0925434e [sage]
And then of course, there is what we could all do to help close that gap. President Park’s
trustpolitik economic dimensions are interesting in whether the aid packages are possible;
cooperative infrastructure projects or even people- to- people exchanges in some way to
help close that gap in advance. I think those things are defi nitely interesting and would
change the calculation about the cost of transition.
All that said, I think there is a good reason for caution about what sort of internal
reforms are going on in North Korea and the ability of outsiders to infl uence what is going
on inside. I do not mean to state that these things are going to dramatically change the
situation. The only other point of comfort, obviously for our South Korean friends, is that
South Korea is not going to be alone in this. The U.S., Japan, and other countries are
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 17
bilaterally going to support the pro cess of transition. International fi nancial institutions, I
think it is as Marcus alluded to, are inevitably going to become involved. More importantly,
I also strongly endorse the point about the private sector being a critical player here. In fact
policy today should be focused on trying to learn how to incentivize, how to support and
guarantee businesses and the private sector as it moves into a new situation if that happens.
Economic synergy clearly is a long- term proposition, but there are a lot of unknowns. If
unifi cation started today, I’d say it’s going to be bumpier, take longer, and be more costly
than we think. Though, again if there were changes in the precondition, it might be not so
painful. Policy should focus on how to ease this transition.
381-1 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:05:03 ID:c0925434e [sage]
18 |
Panel B: Opening for Business:
Foreign Investment aft er
Unifi cation
Mr. Thomas Byrne, Moody’s Investors Ser vice
First of all, my comments are not prescriptive, so I will keep my credit rating analyst’s hat
on. We have never been prescriptive on our work, and now we cannot be because we are in
a regulated industry. The overall framework that I am looking at is not the collapse, but
really an opening of North Korea as a bridge towards unifi cation. I think the scenario that
is the most easy to grasp mentally or analytically is the delayed unifi cation concept. And in
that, I think unifi cation can be done perhaps on Seoul’s terms. I do not think unifi cation
can be done unless Beijing’s terms matter as well, looking at the history of the PRC on the
Korean peninsula and also at Chinese behavior recently in the region.
That being said, unifi cation would have considerable near- term costs for the South
Korean government under the delayed unifi cation scenario. But it will also bring longer-
term economic benefi ts. I think the degree of the costs and benefi ts will be infl uenced by
the time frame of the successful po liti cal and economic transformation of North Korea.
Nonetheless, the elimination of the existential threat to South Korea removes the low
probability but high severity event risk to its economy, which is actually the rating con-
straint for us when we look at structural fi nance deals in South Korea. I think it would
have a positive psychological effect, which is probably unquantifi able.
Basically, I am looking at a unifi cation scenario that is externally supported but also
internally driven, and I will get to that later. Seoul has a considerable amount of fi scal
headroom to absorb, over time, the costs of an opening of North Korea or unifi cation. This
would involve direct fi scal transfers and infrastructure investment, of course. South
Korea’s debt levels in the government balance sheet are rather moderate, something like 32
percent of GDP, mostly comparable to the industrial countries, particularly those who went
through the severe crisis of 2008 and 2009. Their debt level was about 80 to 100 percent of
GDP, including the U.S. on the general governance basis, including the States. The debt
burden is not much, at least based on the government balance sheet. However, greater
fi scal space can be generated if Korea’s public- sector companies’ - the nonfi nancial public
corporations who actually act as an arm in South Korean economic policy - debt can be
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 19
reduced, because its contingent liabilities are on the balance sheet. The reason I think this
is important is because, at least in the initial phases of an opening, if South Korea is in-
volved in the economic investment in North Korea, the public- sector companies would be
involved, something like Korean Housing and Land. The Korea National Railway Corpora-
tion might establish a railroad from Rus sia to the peninsula. KEPCO, as well, probably
would not build a nuclear power plant in North Korea, but could develop a grid in North
Korea, which according to satellites and photos, does not exist really. So I think this will be
in the vanguard.
381-2 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:05:03 ID:c0925434e [sage]
South Korea’s national savings are ample. A delayed unifi cation pro cess would not
completely derail South Korea’s economic and fi scal fundamentals or its growth projec-
tions during this delayed unifi cation period. South Korea has fairly strong external pay-
ments position. Reserves and net international investment positions are okay; not terribly
strong but still strong enough to avoid being buffeted by the turbulent conditions in global
fi nancial markets in the future as it undergoes the pro cess of investment in aiding and
externally supporting North Korean unifi cation.
The benefi ts of an opening, and eventually unifi cation, in North Korea would be most
fully realized by a robust role of the private sector. This is just not the South Korean private
sector but a North Korean private sector. South Korea’s fi rms’ participation in the opening
and also the development of North Korea’s private sector really hinges on the establish-
ment of a stable and predictable industrial regime in North Korea.
However, experience so far in North Korea and elsewhere suggests that the transition
from socialist or communist system to socialist market economy is neither smooth nor
rapid. In many frontier markets, protectionism and resource nationalism have prevented
foreign investment from playing a strong consistent catalytic role. We look at the case of
Mongolia. It actually got off to a fast start after leaving when the Council for Mutual Eco-
nomic Assistance broke up, and went through an economic transformation in 1990. In 1997
they joined the WTO ahead of China. However, the lack of a stable and predictable invest-
ment regime is impeding the development of its very rich natural resource base. This has
lessons to be applied to North Korea, that large- scale fi rms are not going to invest in North
Korea unless a predictable and stable investment regime is there, so that their long- term
investments are protected either under the delayed unifi cation system with some legal
friendly terms of North Korea or under some modifi cation by guarantees from the South
Korean government.
Development mixed with the private and capital market takes time. We will look at the
examples of China and Vietnam. China opened up in 1978. Twelve years later its stock
market at the early stage was established. That took 12 years. It was very small, a non-
state sector at that time. In Vietnam in 1986, the Doi Moi program started. Its stock market,
the very fl exible one in Ho Chi Minh City, was opened in the year 2000, so we are talking
about 14 years there. Both systems decided to access the international capital markets, a
little before the opening of private markets of the domestic fi nancial system’s equity
382 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:06:29 ID:c0925434e [sage]
20 | VICTOR CHA
fi nancing. Moody’s and other rating agencies follow the development of capital markets,
and we had the fi rst rating on China 10 years after the opening and on Vietnam, 11 years
after the opening. It is only in China now that capital markets are developing in any
healthy and constructive direction. Vietnam is still struggling. But even in its private
markets, more than 30 years after the reforms were announced, China is still struggling
with how to incorporate the private sector into the economy. The third plenum of 18th
Party Congress said that market forces will be decisive allocators of resources. But how
do you do that in a system where the state controls so much economic leverage and legal
and policy tools? This is still something that has to be worked out, even in the case of
China.
That being said, if the delayed unifi cation pro cess does happen, an easy way to get
investment into the economy, looking historically, is to have special economic zones. They
were very successful in the case of China. Shenzhen was opened up in just two years, after
1978, after the transformative third plenum of 11th Party Congress. Shenzhen, which was a
farming and fi shing village back then in the 1980s, now has the highest per capita GDP in
all of China; so the developments there have been really transformative.
I think none of that would have happened if there was not the internal leadership to
drive this. That raises a question: where does the leadership come from that will drive the
opening of North Korea? Does it exist now? Or is it something that can come to be seen in
the future? I think China is a good example because China has transformed itself from a
totalitarian system. In 1978, the leader, Deng Xiaoping, decided to take a different path
instead of protecting socialism and communism, and set up a socialist market economy to
go down, essentially, the capitalist path. Now Deng Xiaoping was someone who already
existed in the system. In fact, during the 1950s, he himself had a transformation with his
experience during the Cultural Revolution. This is an internal leader.
The question is, does North Korea have somebody lurking in the system? I am looking at
the more recent example of Myanmar. Myanmar was a socialist economy which has been
undergoing transformation since 2010. In Asia, other than North Korea, Myanmar’s gov-
ernment was dominated by the military for the longest period of time. The military took
over in the early 1960s in Myanmar. Where did the leadership come from in Myanmar? It
was different. You had generals who were chafi ng under the authoritarian and totalitarian
leadership at that time. The current president was in the system, and when he was given
the opportunity, he broke out, took Myanmar along a different path. None of this will
happen in North Korea’s delayed unifi cation unless there is leadership in North Korea to
open up.
If North Korea were to concentrate on what North Korea can do to attract foreign invest-
ment, an option is to open free export zones. I mentioned Shenzhen where they worked
quite well. I have also had experience traveling to many of the free export zones through-
out Southeast Asia. The Philippines is a good example? they have export zones where not
just foreign companies but also domestic companies can operate. Of course, the benefi ts of
383 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:07:13 ID:c0925434e [sage]
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 21
a free export zone is that it insulates the business environment and protects investment
from ineffi ciencies, lack of governance, and weaknesses of a governmental system as a
whole. These zones provide tax benefi ts, income tax, expedite customs procedures, etc.
It works out really well. Moreover, there are linkages to the domestic economies. In the
Philippines, you have many companies where middle- level management is actually Fili-
pino. I visited one company that makes elements for the airplanes that we all fl y on. I asked
the manager, “How many do you have in your factory?” He said, “I am the only one in the
head offi ce from the U.S. From the engineers to the managers, they are all Filipino.” The
reason I mention this is that I did visit the Kaesong zone some years ago after the opening. I
did not see any of these attributes. The workers were performing diligently and the super-
visors were supervising seriously. But yet it seems to be that interaction between North
Koreans and South Koreans was pretty absent. Kaesong is a positive seed from the sun-
shine policy, but yet it has not germinated fully in the way that other special economic
zones have elsewhere in Asia.
To summarize, in terms of the cost, I think South Korea has the fi scal headroom to
accommodate gradual unifi cation. There are demands in the South Korean economy that
prevent the South Korean government from running a larger fi scal surplus than it already
has. If you include the national social security fund surpluses, as we do in general in the
IMF standard accounting and in U.S. defi cits and bud get calculations, South Korea is running
a small surplus. Nevertheless, if you take out those surpluses, then you get small defi cits.
You take that out and the debt to be refi nanced every year is only 2.5 percent of GDP. In the
case of China, it is 6.1 percent of GDP, which are the fi gures in 2014, in Germany, 6.8 percent
of GDP. So it would appear South Korea has several percentage points of GDP, at least over
the short to medium term, which can be used to provide assistance to North Korea directly
or indirectly through the companies.
Second, I am intrigued that President Lee Myung- bak in 2007 had his Vision 3,000
Denuclearization and Openness policy, a mini? Marshall Plan for North Korea. I don’t
know how much it would cost South Korea to boost North Korea’s per capita income to
3,000 dollars from what ever they are now. The cost of the original Marshall Plan was
fairly modest, and fi nancial transfers were the key transformative agent in the plan for
reconstructing Eu rope. The U.S. wanted Eu rope to follow a more capitalist system than the
more socialist system in which they were headed. It was the liberal economic elements of
policy prescription that really helped in effi cient use of resources in Eu rope. This could
also be the case in North Korea if the liberal policy prescriptions were a part of a Marshall
Plan the local leadership could buy into. Of course, all these costs really depend on expe-
dited reform in North Korea, which is really a function of the leadership in North Korea.
If I can take the role of a commentator talking about the benefi ts. First of all, the
elimination of the permanent and existential threat has psychological benefi ts that we cannot
quantify, but would be good for South Korea. One benefi t that won’t be realized is the
notion that South Korean fi rms suffer from a Korea discount from the uncertainty and
security threat posed by North Korea. In my understanding, the Korea discount is really
384 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:08:56 ID:c0925434e [sage]
22 | VICTOR CHA
internal to the corporate governance of the South Korean corporations, which had histori-
cally been weak but have improved recently. In more par tic u lar terms, the dividend pay-
outs are much lower in South Korean fi rms than elsewhere, and that also has an effect on
the relatively lower prices in Korea. So there will be no benefi t to the Korean market
there? from unifi cation or the elimination of the existential risk from North Korea in
regards to the Korea discount.
In terms of expansion of the labor force into the South Korean economy, President
Park has her 4-7-4 vision where growth would be 4 percent, labor force participation rate
would be 70 percent, and the per capita income would be 40,000 dollars. I think the more
diffi cult one out of those numbers to achieve is the middle one, the 70 percent participa-
tion rate. For South Korea to absorb North Korean labor, the rigidity of the South Korean
labor market will need to be greatly reduced. South Korea labor force participation rate
is somewhat similar to the current one in the U.S. Of course, there are a lot of concerns about
the low participation rate in the U.S., which has shrunk since the recession in 2009. South
Korea does have a low employment rate relative to the U.S. Yet the labor force participation
is hindered by the internal rigidity. That has to be worked out by the South Korean fi rms.
Lastly, if there is a delayed unifi cation where other great powers can buy in, even
before Samsung and Hyundai move in for their long- term investment under the stable
investment regime, you have three large development banks in the region that can partici-
pate in the infrastructure projects, in the resource development. In addition to Korea, you
have China’s and Japan’s development bank. I think they all look favorably towards invest-
ing in North Korea to relieve the direct burden of taxpayers in South Korea for the pro cess
of economic opening under a delayed unifi cation scenario.
Mr. William Brown, Offi ce of the Director of
National Intelligence
It is really interesting to listen to all the conversations about unifi cation that have been
spawned by President Park’s “unifi cation bonanza” talk earlier this year. I, for one, wel-
come this discussion since for a long time I have thought we in the West, and certainly in
South Korea, have been paralyzed in our engagement policies by fears of an Iraq- like
disaster should the North and South ever be unifi ed. In my view the two economies are
highly complementary and, given the right policies, there would be no shortage of willing
investors in the North should its economy be reformed and merged with that of the South.
Economic growth in the North would be spectacular and the South, even the region, would
benefi t greatly. I agree completely with President Park on all those points. The trick, of
course, is to convince North Koreans that they, not southern or foreign carpetbaggers,
would be the primary benefi ciaries. Perhaps one way to do this is to cast the unifi cation
issue as a merger of two companies, with shareholders, not the managers, of the ju nior
company, that is, the North Korean citizens, being the primary benefi ciaries. It’s a little
different way to cast this unifi cation issue.
385 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:09:36 ID:c0925434e [sage]
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 23
If there is one word that I’d like you to remember from all of this, it’s the word own-
ership. We need to create an own ership system in North Korea, before we can even think
about investing there. Barring the following preconditions, all bets are off. I think the
preconditions work either in a gradual unifi cation scenario or in a sudden one. The point
is, with the sudden one, the new occupiers, or the new South Korean government presum-
ably, needs to be prepared to do all these things very quickly. However, a transition in
North Korea can happen over a couple of years, maybe fenced off a little from the south
even in the abrupt change scenario. So I’m thinking, limit the two- way population fl ows,
gradually open the DMZ if you can, and immediately enable market mechanisms in the
north. For that reason, we should not give too much aid. I’m concerned if it’s like the Mar-
shall Plan, too much aid will fl ow in, preventing reform from happening.
An essential fi rst step is to require all workers in North Korea be paid with real money,
not through the socialist ration system they have now. Investments would be needed in
creating new legal accounting and property registration systems. They should create a new
money and banking system in North Korea with something like a currency board. It is so
interesting to watch because a lot of this is happening already in North Korea. The dollar-
ization of North Korea is really quite phenomenal. As in post? World War II East Asia, a
critical step will be to institute massive land reform. A lot of studies say that in Japan,
South Korea, and Taiwan, land reform was essential to the development of their capitalist
economies. I would argue that in North Korea they should privatize land and houses to
current residents. Collective and state farms should be liquidated, and the proceeds should
be applied to farmers, to an emerging private sector, and to state agencies charged with
education, health, and pensions. A customs union could be established. Gradually, they
should allow capital and labor to fl ow across the DMZ. Finally, as the north stabilizes, they
should create a monetary union with a common currency banking system.
Once that has happened, we can think about investment opportunities. I divide invest-
ment into four different areas. The fi rst one is what I call central government investment
from Seoul in North Korea. I suggest, compared to a lot of people, a fairly modest amount of
investment. In fact, I’m a little concerned that the huge numbers push people off. It can’t be
so large as to endanger the South Korean fi nancial system. In the north, it should concentrate
on creating institutions needed to build a private own ership system; that is all the legal,
accounting, and tax information systems that modern capitalistic economies require. No
doubt it also must provide short- term aid to prevent chaos. The central government can
facilitate North? South Korean monopoly enterprises, such as the railway, telecommunica-
tions, and electric power systems to connect with the north. Each of these, nonetheless,
should be as self- supporting as possible. An example is commercializing North Korean
railway stations, as occurred in China. The profi ts from those can easily pay for rebuilding
the railroads and linking China and Rus sia with South Korea. East coast port development
also should be emphasized.
Next is North Korean local government investment. It is easy to forget a fundamental
aspect of North Korea, which is that the North Korean government presently owns North
386-1 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:10:21 ID:c0925434e [sage]
24 | VICTOR CHA
Korea. Liquidating much of this property and licensing key industry and trade functions
should provide plenty of resources that the provinces and local governments can use to
balance their equally large liability, especially in health care, social security, education,
roads, etc. The trick of course, is how well and how fairly it can liquidate this property.
China again is the example, although one fraught with challenges. But there is one thing
we missed in following the Chinese. We are always thinking that something will go wrong.
However, the Chinese government has been able to feed itself by selling off, divesting itself,
of state property for 30 years now. So I think the same thing could happen in North Korea.
Next is domestic private investment. Ultimately, domestic private investment will
take on the bulk of investment opportunities and challenges, as in any rapidly develop-
ing country. South Korea in the 1960s and 1970s is a great model, where newly formed
money and banking systems created a powerful machine for encouraging private sav-
ings and private investment. South Korea went from the worst saving country in the
world in 1960 to the best- saving country in the world in about 1980, on the strength of
little less than market- based banking reform. North Korea should be able to do something
similar.
This then brings us to South Korean and foreign investment. Logically, I put them
together since I see no economic reason to separate them. In fact, I think North Korea
should make itself as competitive as possible and force South Korean investors to compete
on the same terms as Japa nese, Chinese, or American investors. Now, what will we, the
foreigners, or the South Koreans, end up investing in? The standard model used to under-
stand foreign investment and trade drivers is Ricardo’s Comparative Advantage Theory
and the Hecksler- Ohlin theories of factor prices. Simply put, they say a country should
concentrate on production, and thus exports, of goods and ser vices in sectors that it can
produce relatively cheaply compared to other goods and ser vices. And, just as importantly,
that it should discard industries that have less of an advantage. Foreign investment is likely
to fl ow into comparative advantage industries since a fl ow of foreign exchanges earnings is
needed to repay the investors. It’s a nice way of saying, in North Korea, a lot of things will
no longer be made. I emphasize this because in the 1980s we did a lot of studies on compar-
ative advantage in the Chinese economy. As it was shifting from a socialist economy to a
central market economy, the prices of everything changed so radically that a lot of the
things that they were investing in and producing were illogical once you had market
prices. I did a study in 1985 on energy demand in China. In 1980, China’s energy prices
were close to zero. Consumer prices were very high; raw material and industrial prices
were close to zero. So you bring it on the market, what do people do? First of all, they
export the oil. China’s biggest foreign exchange earner in 1980 was oil exports. By 1990,
and now, China’s the world’s biggest oil importer. But it’s easy to see how, when you change
a price, given market incentives, everything changes.
386-2 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:10:21 ID:c0925434e [sage]
The problem any investor presently has, however, is fi guring out, based on present data,
what future comparative advantages and disadvantages a reformed North Korean economy
likely will have. It is tempting to look at its trade data, as provided by trade partners, to get
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 25
some idea of its comparative advantages but these can turn out to be erroneous, once a
market wage and price system replaces the state system. Even so, looking at data and what
is happening closely, the country is changing in interesting ways, with this mixed price
system gradually starting to dominate the state price system. It is a very good thing and
creates a lot more productivity.
The biggest jump in North Korean exports, January through July of this year, is textiles,
which are up 46 percent, approximately 400 or 500 million dollars. Textiles are the second
leading export item. Five or 10 years ago, textiles would not have been on the list. Other
things in which I do still think we would invest in, are the metals and minerals industry.
Those are actually down a little bit this year. I think what is happening in the textiles
business is that more and more Chinese textile company managers are getting into North
Korea, paying market wages, hiring North Korean women, and pumping out the textiles,
rapidly increasing the production. The productivity is growing enormously because they
are paid a market wage, instead of the old set wage, which is essentially nothing. In the set
wage system, you are not paid? you are given everything. You are given your ration, you
are given your lunch, and you are given your house. In the market system, you are paid
according to what you have made. In this, the transformation is beginning to happen, and
we are seeing it in textile exports to China. So that is one area to invest in, the textile and
footwear industry.
Some of these reach back to Japa nese colonial days, when American investors also were
there, helping build rails lines and the country’s fi rst modern gold mine. These natural
resources still apparently are plentiful and very valuable in today’s global economy. I
expect they are well worth developing for export. Lead, zinc, magnesite, a number of
“rare” earths, and uranium are also likely candidates.
For a number of other examples of areas for investment we should look to history
before the social communist government. In Japa nese colonial days, northern Korea was
developed to a high degree by Japa nese investors to take advantage of the country’s large
reserves of non- ferrous metals and anthracite coal. They also invested in rail and port
development to export these products. One of their most interesting investments was in
what it now called the Kimchaek Iron and Steel Mill in Chongjin. It is by far North Korea’s
largest industrial facility? over 100,000 workers. The Japa nese built that plant because of
its proximity to one of Asia’s largest iron ore mines, the Musan mine, on the North Korean
border. They developed a slurry system and a rail system to get the iron ore down to
Chongjin. Today the plant is a virtual derelict, but with 100,000 skilled workers and good
transportation links to Musan and the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), this facility could be
completely rebuilt into a modern competitor. The new owners? presumably with the
workers having a large share?in a unifi ed Korea, would do well to have Posco, Japa nese,
and Chinese steel fi rms bid for the plant, using some of the funds to pay for the social needs
of the poverty stricken northeast. That, to me, represents a really interesting case study for
a very major foreign investment opportunity. An alternative would be to invest only in
the Musan mine and export the iron ore, as Chinese fi rms presently are attempting to do.
387 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:11:07 ID:c0925434e [sage]
26 | VICTOR CHA
However, given the skilled labor supply and the good port, I expect a steel mill would be
much more benefi cial. North Korea needs a lot of help. But selling and privatizing those
sorts of resources would do wonders.
North Korea still seems to be quite rich in nonferrous metals? lead, zinc, and some
gold. Interestingly, the fi rst U.S. investment in North Korea, in the 1920s, was in a gold
mine. Certainly, there are some interesting developments in the rare earths. A little caution
should be noted when considering minerals and metals. With mining, the product might be
worth a trillion dollars if you can get it out of the ground, but there are costs to getting it
out of the ground, refi ning it, and moving it.
Lastly, we tend to make fun about Kim Jong- un’s ski resort but his idea to promote foreign
tourism ultimately makes a lot of sense. Tourism can employ a lot of workers, bring in
foreign exchange, and take advantage of the unique characteristics of North Korean geog-
raphy and history. Most importantly, North Korea is only a day trip for hundreds of millions
of wealthy Chinese, Japa nese, and South Koreans, who would fl ood the country given the
chance.
Many more opportunities are likely to present themselves. My guess is that under the
right circumstances, authorities will be in a position to having to make sure there is not too
much foreign investment, which would displace the savings and investments that should
develop within the domestic economy. The main issue for foreign investments, of course,
will be how to trust the new legal system, and to ensure that property rights, both for those
selling the property and those buying the property, are protected.
Dr. Sue Mi Terry, East Asian Institute,
Columbia University
First I’d like to thank Victor, and obviously CSIS and NRCS for inviting me here today to
participate and be part of this dream team. Overall I feel fairly reaffi rmed as someone
who has been pushing unifi cation of the Korean peninsula as a good thing, a net benefi t
on balance for Korea, the United States, and the region. These two respected economists
argued that there are real economic benefi ts in the long term for unifi cation. I am always
convinced that unifi cation would be a positive thing in terms of security, human rights
issues, and humanitarian concerns, but it is good to hear economic arguments that there
are serious investment opportunities in North Korea post- unifi cation.
All Korea watchers understand that there are serious costs and challenges to unifi ca-
tion in the near term. In fact, for many years now, Korea watchers have focused our
studies on the potential high costs and all the things that could go wrong in the unifi cation
scenario. Personally, in the de cades that I spent in the government, I spent the majority of
my time thinking about all the potential problems that might confront the U.S. and the
Asian countries. I spent virtually no time thinking about the potential opportunities
388-1 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:12:13 ID:c0925434e [sage]
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 27
of unifi cation. All the problems were more security- related problems, such as securing
nuclear weapons in North Korea and preventing the kind of chaos that gripped post?
Saddam Hussein Iraq. Although, I do think that this analogy with post? Saddam Hussein
Iraq with the Korean case is somewhat misleading because, in Iraq, there was no South
Iraq to absorb the newly liberated state the way South Korea can absorb the North. And
Iraq is also highly fragmented, but the population of the Korean peninsula is mostly
homogeneous.
I do not think there is any serious Korean watcher that is underestimating the potential
costs and challenges of unifi cation. Almost everyone agrees that, even under the best cir-
cumstances, unifi cation of South and North Korea will be very expensive and more chal-
lenging than the unifi cation of East and West Germany because the two Koreas are further
apart in terms of economy, education, technology, and ideology. It is hard to get an exact
fi gure in terms of what it will cost. I think a lot of economists have different numbers in
terms of a bill for rebuilding North Korea and integrating it into the South Korean economy.
German unifi cation, I think cost 1.9 trillion dollars over the course of 20 years. I do think
that it is time that we have a more balanced look at the various challenges and opportuni-
ties when talking about unifi cation.
Mr. Brown lays out concrete steps towards economic unifi cation which, to even a non-
economist like myself, make sense. These steps include the importance of protecting the
South Korean fi nancial system at all costs, allowing capital to go to the north, and focusing
on helping to create institutions that are needed to build out private own ership. I think
both Mr. Brown and Mr. Byrne have emphasized in their pre sen ta tions that the benefi ts of
unifi cation would be fully realized by a robust private sector, not necessarily by a huge
investment by the central government. I also think that beginning with the mining sector,
with the plentiful natural resources in North Korea, it is worth developing for export. I
particularly think that the synergistic effect of unifi cation can be powerful if we make
possible a combination of South Korea’s technology, which is the most advanced in the
world, with North Korea’s resources. Unlike South Korea, which has no natural resources
and imports 97 percent of its energy needs, North Korea has large deposits of coal, ura-
nium, and so on. I am reiterating this point because it is important. I think the value of the
minerals is almost 6 trillion dollars, which is 140 times the size of North Korea’s current
GDP. However, you cannot tap into it today because of the primitive state of North Korea’s
mining industry. This can be benefi cial if you could develop that to accelerate the unifi ed
Korea’s economy and attract foreign investment. Mr. Brown’s point about the textile indus-
try makes sense. The last point about the tourism industry is also interesting. North Korea
has the most scenic area in the peninsula and could attract many foreign visitors if com-
bined with the infrastructure that South Korea and foreign companies could provide.
These could all be developed into serious industries.
388-2 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:12:13 ID:c0925434e [sage]
Mr. Byrne mentioned an important point about Seoul having an ample amount of fi scal
headroom to absorb, over time, the costs of opening or unifi cation, at least in its initial
form from direct fi scal transfer to infrastructure investment. I think the assessment is
28 | VICTOR CHA
right. I think South Korea has some monetary reserve, and I think it is over 300 billion
dollars, which is not counting gold holdings etc. It has some account surplus and it has
savings and resources to respond with some fi scal headroom to absorb the initial costs of
unifi cation. However, over the longer term, I do think that South Korea has to maintain
fi nancial stability. South Korea would need to fi nd solutions to at least some of their deep
structural, longer- term domestic weaknesses, ranging from widening income inequalities
to high house hold debt and, perhaps a serious threat to its future, a rapidly aging
population.
Developing the relatively younger labor pool in North Korea to address South Korea’s
aging population is an interesting discussion point. South Korea absolutely faces a serious
demographic crunch because life expectancy, which is around 81 years old right now, is
increasing. But the fertility rate is very low; per woman it is about 1.2 children, which is
among the lowest in the world. As a result, OECD predicts that South Korea will have the
second oldest population by 2050 with 7 people over 65 for every 10 working- age adults.
The working- age population from 15 to 64 will start to decline in 2015, then the population
as a whole will begin to shrink in 2030. The North Korean demographic is different. From
the research I have done, 91 percent of its population is estimated to be under 65 years old
and its fertility rate is higher, two children per woman. Right now North Korea would,
therefore, add 17 million potential workers aged between 15 to 64 to the 36 million which
are in South Korea. That is a gain of some 47 percent for the total workforce.
Thus, unifi cation could introduce a new source for Korean- speaking labor to unifi ed
Korea without having to resort to immigration from Southeast Asia or other low- wage
areas. South Korean fi rms could also move some factories out of China, where they had
been located to take advantage of relatively cheap labor, and relocate them into North
Korea, where the labor would even be cheaper, at least initially. However, as people, goods,
and ser vices fl ow freely in a unifi cation scenario, the north and south wage gap would be
closed and the labor cost will not fall as low as we might think.
One question for consideration is how appropriate or important would wage control be
then in the unifi cation scenario. There are some other questions and considerations that I
wanted to throw out for discussion. Once the north is joined by the south, would it enter
OECD and thus forfeit any foreign aid from its members? That was the case when East
Germany joined West Germany. Similarly, would North Korea no longer enjoy the benefi ts
of the WTO system of preferential tariffs for developing countries? There are other con-
cerns, as well. Very complex litigation over property rights, I think is a very important
point that is likely to rise. Would Chinese investers demand their existing contracts be
recognized, adding to the already very high costs the southern or foreign fi rms would be
facing when trying to enter the northern market?
389 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:12:56 ID:c0925434e [sage]
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 29
Dr. Park Hyeong- Jung, Korea Institute
for National Unifi cation
First, I thank the organizers for inviting me as a discussant in this session. I am also a
noneconomist in the economics session, but one of my main areas of analysis is North
Korea’s po liti cal economy. My role is to bring some social po liti cal aspects of the North
Korean economy to the discussion on economic integration of the two Koreas. Presump-
tions on the North Korean economy at the time of unifi cation will exert infl uence on think-
ing about how to manage the economic unifi cation pro cess. The theses for economic
unifi cation and investment possibilities given by the two presenters can be regarded as
basic models for the unifi cation and post- unifi cation economic pro cess. Building upon this
basic model, I want to add some new points and some complementary thoughts to fi gure
out a more complex and concrete model of economic integration of the unifi ed Korea. I’d
like to bring six points.
The fi rst point is on the current status of the evolution of North Korea’s offi cial eco-
nomic system. Kim Jong-un formalized important institutional changes into the economy
with the so- called June 28th mea sures in 2012, and other follow- ups in 2013 and 2014. As a
result, the offi cial facade of the current North Korean system can be compared to those of
China’s between 1984 and 1992 and of Vietnam’s between 1986 and 1991. Theoretically this
is a socialist economy without planned directives to state fi rms and collective farms. In
other words, it is a po liti cally managed market economy composed of commercially operat-
ing state fi rms. The institutional and operational facade of the North Korean economy
would evolve increasingly similar to all the stagnant market economies of developing
authoritarian countries in the near future. Before too long, North Korea could initiate a
package of policies to privatize state fi rms as China did in 2002 and Vietnam did in 1991.
Whether North Korea’s undertaking of such economic reform mea sures would kick off
meaningful economic growth is another question.
My second point is on unifi cation as a merger between demo cratic and po liti cal capital-
ism. Korean unifi cation would not be a merger between a market democracy and a commu-
nist command economy as was the case between East and West Germany, but one between
demo cratic and po liti cal capitalism. Here, po liti cal capitalism is defi ned as market econ-
omy, in which profi t opportunities are determined not by economic competition, but by
authoritarian po liti cal decisions. The redesigning of the East German communist com-
mand economy into a West German? type demo cratic market economy was relatively
simple because after the po liti cal collapse of the party state there was no complex net of
strong established interest groups in the society. The po liti cal capitalism which has been
evolving in North Korea would nurture a complex set of established interest structures
outside of the party state bureaucracy. Because they are located in a society based on
private wealth and connections, they would survive even after the po liti cal collapse of
North Korean state as they did in other stagnant reform- resistant po liti cal economies
of postcommunist authoritarianism.
390 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:15:03 ID:c0925434e [sage]
30 | VICTOR CHA
My third point is regarding the plunder of the state property through the introduction
to market institutions. One of the main drivers of introducing a po liti cally controlled
market mechanism in North Korea has been the fact that based on current conditions they
contribute better than the command economy to the private enrichment of the individual
communist po liti cal elites, especially through misuse or theft of state properties and
shadowed privatization. The introduction of apparent free market institutions and formal
privatization of state property would be accelerated in the future and especially with the
advent of prospects for economic unifi cation of the two Koreas. Because before it is too late
North Korea’s corrupt po liti cal elites would like to seize the last opportunities for shadow
privatization and private enrichment.
My fourth point would be how to promote poverty reduction. North Korea has been
transformed from one of the most egalitarian societies to one of the most unequal in the
past 20 years. And one of the most important challenges is to promote poverty reduction in
a unifi ed Korea.
My fi fth point is about how to promote North Korean entrepreneurship. At the time of
unifi cation, no matter when it would be, we will fi nd a host of businessmen with various
amounts of private wealth in Pyongyang and other local cities. A unifi ed Korea should not
only attract foreign investment and technology but also nurture a new type of innovative
market entrepreneurship among North Koreans. Economic policies must promote small
and medium private businesses by North Koreans in North Korea.
My last point is about geostrategic competitions for economic predominance in the
northern part of a unifi ed Korea. North Korea is located in the center of Northeast Asia and
is surrounded by large countries. The collapse of the regime would provide neighboring
countries with increasing chances for establishing infl uential positions in North Korea.
The pro cess of unifi cation might not guarantee South Korea a dominant economic position
in North Korea. China might have already positioned itself as the dominant player in the
North Korean economy and might try to take advantage of its strong economic position in
North Korea to infl uence the economic unifi cation pro cess and the foreign policy of the
unifi ed Korea.
391 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:15:56 ID:c0925434e [sage]
| 31
LUNCHEON ADDRESS
Mr. Sydney Seiler, Special Envoy for Six- Party
Talks, U.S. Department of State
I
t is an honor to be speaking here today on this par tic u lar issue of unifi cation. I know it’s
an issue that, for our Republic of Korea friends here, you’ve grown up your whole lives
thinking about, virtually. For those who are not Korean? who come here via Korean
studies, U.S. government work, academic work, journalism? from the very time you
encounter the Korea issue, unifi cation of the Korean peninsula is something we’ve all
given thought to.
Personally, having followed this issue and studied it for a few de cades myself, I’m really
glad to see that the discussion is moving beyond the abstract and the theoretical? various
formulae for unifi cation that, when you look back on them, had very little to do with the
geopo liti cal or security realities at the time. Instead, we are in the realm of the concrete,
the real? moving to concrete conceptualization and planning for a reality we all know is
coming.
It is also encouraging to see the shift in the discussion of the economic dimensions of
unifi cation. The idea that unifi cation need not be feared simply because of some unverifi -
able and alarmist forecast of potential costs. It’s certainly not a new one, but in this regard,
both the vision and leadership of President Park in declaring that unifi cation is a bonanza,
or windfall, or daebak to keep it easy in the Korean, and that it might bring a bonanza to
Korea and the region is certainly overdue? a long overdue, encouraging proclamation. A
reframing of the unifi cation discussion.
Finally, one other encouraging development related to this issue is that there are few
people out there today that question the commitment of the United States to unify the
Korean peninsula. There may have been a time when many Koreans thought the U.S. may
have seen some advantage in a divided Korean peninsula, but that’s certainly not the case
any longer. Our Korean friends realize that unifi cation is indeed a central tenant of our
overall Korea policy, and that’s why I’d like to speak to you today by providing a brief
overview of our broader Korean peninsula and regional policy goals. I think we can see
how the interaction of our various lines of effort on our current approach to the North
Korean issue all come together, and how all this, by extension, therefore ties to the issue
of reunifi cation.
392 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:16:26 ID:c0925434e [sage]
32 | VICTOR CHA
Let me start with a broad but brief regional context. In his August 13 East- West Center
speech on the United States’ vision for Asia- Pacifi c agreement in Hawai’i, Secretary Kerry
described how America’s security and prosperity are closely and increasingly linked to the
Asia- Pacifi c. An Asia marked by demo cratic governance, free markets, a rule- based security
order, and a respect for human rights is in everybody’s interest? fi rst and foremost, for those
who make the Asia- Pacifi c their home. Certainly, to the United States, which has been, and
always will be, a Pacifi c nation. It’s natural, therefore, that the United States seeks a stable
and eco nom ically vibrant Asia, and is involved throughout the region toward that end.
Of course, it should come as no surprise then that these broader goals are the very foun-
dation for our Korean policy, as well. As we watch these goals materialize in the Republic
of Korea? a vibrant free market democracy?we never lost sight of the fact that our ulti-
mate goal is of a unifi ed Korea where all 70 million Koreans can enjoy democracy, free
markets, a respect for human rights, and dignity. Our efforts, in this regard, were never
designed to stop at the 38th parallel, nor are they today. In the broadest sense, we see a
unifi ed Korea with these goals? democracy, free market economy, prosperity, a respect
for human rights, and dignity?as a natural end state toward which the Korean people,
we, and, in fact, history itself are heading.
That is why the president, alongside President Park in April of this year, stated, “The
United States supports the Korean people’s desire for reunifi cation, and I share President
Park’s vision to reunify Korea? free from the fear of war, free from nuclear weapons, and
where people throughout the peninsula enjoy the po liti cal and economic freedom that
exists here,” speaking from Seoul, in the south. As President Park’s own Dresden speech
made clear, there are plans, strategies, and actions that we must devise and implement
today that lay the foundation for, and create the conditions conducive of, a peaceful path
towards those ends. Actions we take today that lead toward a demo cratic Korean penin-
sula, where everyone can enjoy po liti cal freedom and have a voice in their future. Actions
we can take today that lead to a Korean peninsula with a vibrant economy, where the
prosperity enjoyed by people throughout the peninsula contributes to regional and global
economic growth and prosperity. Actions we can take today that contribute to a peaceful
Korean unifi cation free from weapons of mass destruction, benefi ting regional and global
security, as well. And, fi nally, actions we can take today that can lead to a Korea free of
gulags, free of oppression, and free of the other cruelties that the UN Commission of In-
quiry so well documented. Is this ambitious? Yes. Is it too much to handle, particularly
given the importance of denuclearization and instability? I don’t think so.
Secretary Kerry, in his speech in Hawai’i, noted that our efforts to denuclearize North
Korea, and to defend against the nuclear missile threat, are important. He also emphasized
our commitment to speak out against the horrifi c human rights situation in the north. In
doing so, the secretary made clear that denuclearization and improving human rights are
not mutually exclusive, contradictory policy objectives. As the leadership of North Korea
begins to make the right strategic choices that can bring the peace and prosperity its people
deserve, we can progress in denuclearization. We will see progress in human rights. We
393 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:17:12 ID:c0925434e [sage]
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 33
will see progress in economic growth and a better standard of living for the North Korean
people? the same type of peace and prosperity that we see marks the rest of the region.
But until that day comes, how do we, today, move to that future we’ve identifi ed as our
goal? How do we translate the aspirational into practical policy objectives and goals? This
is a good segue into a brief discussion of our current North Korean policy.
The United States remains committed to peaceful denuclearization of the Korean penin-
sula through authentic and credible negotiations. Let me emphasize again: we want to resolve
denuclearization via negotiations. We are not ideologically opposed to dialogue with North
Korea, nor have we placed insurmountable obstacles to negotiations in our insisting North
Korea simply demonstrate a willingness to live up to its international obligations and abide
by international norms of behavior. The bars have not been set too high by insisting that
denuclearization talks be about denuclearization, and that they would progress along the
lines of September 19, 2005, joint statement of the Six- Party Talks.
Now, of course, talks are not an end to themselves. They are a means to an end. Talks must
lead to a stated purpose?in this case, denuclearization?in order to be authentic. Talks
must demonstrate a possibility for concrete actions, for concrete progress, to be credible
even as we pursue a path to authentic and credible talks, leading to a complete verifi able,
irreversible denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.
Our broader policy goes beyond talks, goes beyond just dialogue, and integrates major
lines of effort? diplomacy, pressure, and deterrence? which I would like to speak to you
about today. Together these three lines of effort? diplomacy, pressure, and deterrence?
seek to roll back the North Korean program while countering, deterring, and defending
against the threat.
Let me start with the latter, of deterrence. I see some representatives of the Republic of
Korea military here, active duty and retired, who have spent their careers working in the
defense of the Republic of Korea. It’s good to see you here. General Jung. General Shin. They
will tell you our alliance remains strong. Our U.S.- ROK forces “go together” on a daily basis.
Our counterprovocation planning ensures that Pyongyang clearly knows that, as it contem-
plates its next set of provocations or its next actions, it faces a rock- solid U.S.- ROK alliance.
In response to the north’s pursuit of nuclear missile capabilities, our countermissile plan-
ning and tailored extended deterrence stand as concrete examples of our shared commit-
ment to deny North Korea an ability to threaten and intimidate the Republic of Korea
through its pursuit of these capabilities. In the face of outlandish rhetorical threats and
posturing, our fi rm, yet calm, responses coupled with our seamless and transparent U.S.-
ROK cooperation remain the foundation of our success in denying North Korea the benefi ts
of its provocative behavior in an attempt at coercive diplomacy. Deterrence is working.
Security is ensured.
It is important to know that our sanctions are not designed to hurt the North Korean
people. They are designed instead for a number of purposes that contribute to peace and
394-1 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:18:10 ID:c0925434e [sage]
34 | VICTOR CHA
stability on the peninsula. Our sanctions are key elements of efforts to constrain the
growth of the north’s WMD program to curtail its proliferation activities worldwide. By
impeding exports and repatriation of profi ts from illicit sales abroad, we are able to deny
North Korea the resources it needs to sustain and advance its nuclear missile programs. By
infl icting an economic and diplomatic cost for behavior that clearly runs counter to inter-
national norms and DPRK’s own international obligations, we also sharpen the DPRK’s
choices and lead the leadership in Pyongyang to make better choices that will benefi t its
country and its people. We also make clear that Pyongyang’s aspirations for improving its
economy and improving the livelihood of its people are fundamentally inconsistent with
its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Thereby, moving forward, we will continue to seek robust
implementation of UN Security Council resolutions and U.S. sanctions on North Korea.
If the DPRK makes the right choice, returns to the negotiating table, embarks on a cred-
ible path of irreversible denuclearization, and begins to come into compliance with its
international obligations and commitments, the appropriateness of these sanctions would,
of course, be reviewed. But with our ultimate goal being denuclearization of the Korean
peninsula through peaceful means, we continue to believe that a dual track approach is
the best path to authentic and credible negotiations.
Which brings us to the role of diplomacy. The question I’m sure many of you have:
“How do we get North Korea back on the denuclearization path?” First, let me say that we
believe the Six- Party Talks’ framework has provided, and continues to provide, a useful
platform for diplomacy. It has, over the past several years, helped us bring a consensus to
the need for North Korea to return to a credible path of denuclearization, and we will
continue to use this framework moving forward. We build a strong international consen-
sus on the need for North Korea to denuclearize. We strengthen cooperation with the other
four parties within the framework. And, most importantly, we’ve maintained fi ve- party
commitment and consensus on the September 19, 2005, joint statement as the bedrock
framework toward a path of denuclearization that in return will bring a range of diplo-
matic, economic, and security benefi ts to the DPRK. With the September 19 statement, there
is remarkable clarity to the expectations of the DPRK in terms of denuclearization and the
potential benefi ts to Pyongyang should it choose that path.
Of course, the United States for the past fi ve years has demonstrated its willingness to
engage with North Korea. We did so with Ambassador Bosworth’s trip to Pyongyang in
December 2009, even after the events earlier that year with Taepo Dong launch and nuclear
test. With the pro cess that began in 2011, after the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong- do shelling,
with the pro cess that led to the February 29, 2012, understanding, which was shortly
thereafter walked away from by the north. And, of course, with our contacts through
the New York channel.
394-2 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:18:10 ID:c0925434e [sage]
Our policy is not one of not talking for the sake of not talking, if you can handle the
triple negative. We have been, and will continue to be, willing to engage Pyongyang, to
probe its intentions, to push and urge it to make the right decision by presenting to the
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 35
leadership an alternative path, and to prove our sincere commitment to U.S.- DPRK rela-
tions once North Korea begins to move on the path to denuclearization. But clearly the ball
is in Pyongyang’s court.
One can see all three pillars? deterrence, pressure, and diplomacy? contribute to creat-
ing the types of conditions favorable to the future we all envision, that we are all talking
about here today: a unifi ed Korean peninsula that is free of war, free of nuclear weapons,
and just plain free. We engage in diplomacy to seek a breakthrough in denuclearization,
and to ensure that the international community speaks with one voice, and Pyongyang
hears one voice. Telling Pyongyang that the peace, prosperity, and security it seeks remain
possible only once the leadership makes the decision to move down the path of denuclear-
ization. We can use pressure that is needed to constrain those aspects of North Korea’s
behavior that are destabilizing and detrimental to our goal of laying the groundwork for
peace, prosperity, and security that enables unifi cation down the road. Finally, until we get
to that day, we will seek to ensure a safe Korean peninsula through deterrence, looking for
the day when the threat posed on the peninsula no longer exists. We will speak out on the
human rights issue as we look toward the day Koreans throughout the peninsula enjoy the
same po liti cal and economic freedom now enjoyed in the Republic of Korea, to the day
human rights are guaranteed, to the day when po liti cal camps are emptied. We stand
ready, as President Park also had made quite clear, to engage with a denuclearizing North
Korea to help its leadership move the country down a different path in which ultimately a
transformed DPRK can begin to join in and enjoy dynamic prosperity that marks the rest
of the region.
The conversations you are having here today look forward to a unifi cation pro cess we
all hope will unfold in the not too distant future. The mere fact that we are here today refl ects
our shared understanding, and by “our,” I mean including that of U.S. offi cial policy, as
well. Our shared understanding that planning for this day, you are doing here today?is a
task that cannot be put off. We simply cannot afford to wait.
396 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:29:24 ID:c0925434e [sage]
SESSION TWO: KOREAN
UNIFICATION AND
THE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
38 |
Panel C: Th e Northeast
Asian Perspective
Dr. Michael Green, Center for Strategic
and International Studies
Thank you, Victor. This is an important topic. Unifi cation of the Korean peninsula could
end the suffering of 25 million North Koreans, unpredictable threats not only to Northeast
Asia but for the entire world, and could ultimately produce a peace jackpot, not just the
economic potential jackpot that was discussed this morning. In my view, perhaps not
consistent with other speakers, reunifi cation happens when North Korea has collapsed.
When powers collapse, you cannot always predict the changes. In the Second World War,
the collapse of the Axis powers in Eu rope and in Asia freed tens of millions of people and
ended the war, but left a vacuum in Manchuria, the Korean peninsula, Southeast Asia, and
Central and Eastern Eu rope that created the new tensions and new suffering in the Cold
War. Then the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War brought freedom to
tens of millions of peoples in Eastern and Central Eu rope, but opened up historic wounds
in places like Yugo slavia, and as we see today, in Ukraine. So the questions for Korean
unifi cation is whether unifi cation will open new patterns of cooperation in Northeast Asia
based on twenty- fi rst- century norms, or reawaken nineteenth- and eighteenth- century
patterns of rivalry and competition that have been so tragic for Northeast Asia, and particu-
larly for the Korean peninsula.
On the whole, I am optimistic that the former scenario will be the one we will see. I think,
ultimately, the mutual interests among the major powers will align. But there are a lot of
reasons to worry that they might not. To avoid complacency and think now of not only the
economic aspects of unifi cation but what the national security and geopo liti cal require-
ments will be, I will go through major powers briefl y.
I’ve spent about two years in and out of government talking to Japa nese, Korean, Rus sian,
and Chinese counterparts about what unifi cation will look like. In some cases you will
have offi cial statements. In China’s case, Wang Yi, the foreign minister, said in March that
China supports denuclearization, but China’s redline is no war, no instability. I think that
the Xi Jinping government has openly displayed its disdain for Kim Jong-un and it has, in
effect, doubled down on stability in the north in terms of investment and support. Xi Jinping
has said reportedly to President Park that he supports unifi cation. However, in any discussion
397 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:30:26 ID:c0925434e [sage]
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 39
with Chinese government offi cials and scholars, there is an important caveat? “independent
unifi cation.” This means, when you burrow in, no outside powers, particularly the U.S.,
driving it. And it has to be mutual; North Korea, in effect, gets a vote. I’ve had Chinese
counterparts argue that if there is unifi cation, it would someday have to represent the
views of the 25 million people in North Korea. To which I asked, “You mean a national
referendum?” and my Chinese counterpart changed the subject. I think it is less about the
North Korean people and more about preserving, as long as possible, structures and insti-
tutions in the north that are more favorable to China’s interests. China is clearly concerned
about instability, refugees, and about the implications of a unifi ed Korean peninsula that is
demo cratic and aligned with the U.S. and, by implication, therefore Japan. Not only because
of the geostrategy of it but because of the demonstration effect of demo cratization, and the
impact that might have on views in Taiwan and elsewhere within China.
I think there is a very robust debate within China; the best evidence was the famous
Financial Times article by Deng Yuwen, of the Central Party School’s journal Study Times,
suggesting that China should abandon North Korea and that regime collapse is better. He
was, of course, sacked. However, I still think that within the Chinese system there is a
robust debate; it is just not as public as it was a year or two ago.
My belief is that Beijing ultimately sees delaying unifi cation as being in China’s interest
because of the concerns about instability, and because of an assumption that time is on
China’s side. That is that trade patterns with both South and North Korea are moving in a
way that China will have, in effect, a decisive vote. The longer it takes, the more economic
interde pen dency will exist between both Koreas and China. I think that is the Chinese
assumption. I also think that the Chinese government and the PLA are worried about some
of the consequences of unifi cation. There is evidence that the PLA has prepared for conse-
quence management of chemical and other incidents along the border. That in 2009, the
migration of 50,000 armed Kokong militia men from north eastern Burma into China was
a test case for disarming and returning them. That PLA offi cers and offi cials looked at it as
a trial run for a much larger case if North Korea collapses. So the Chinese are not putting
their heads in the sand on this question, in my view. But they want to wait, they want it to
be “in de pen dent,” and, I believe, they will do what ever is possible to preserve their institu-
tions in North Korea, even if the Kim Jong-un regime goes.
For Korea what this means is that rapprochement with Beijing and President Park’s
relationship with Xi Jinping is a good thing. However, I think the ROK has to think care-
fully about how it is framing Chinese expectations, Chinese leverage over this pro cess,
and how successfully Seoul is indicating its redline and its bottom line for unifi cation.
Today, I think, strategic thinking in Japan about the Korean peninsula is the weakest
I’ve seen in 20 years. It is ironic because the Abe government is very strategic about the
maritime domain, about values, and about diplomacy. When it comes to the Korean penin-
sula, Japan is the country where Yamagata Aritomo 100 some years ago famously said that
the Korean peninsula is a dagger end pointed at the heart of Japan. Japan has developed a
398 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:31:56 ID:c0925434e [sage]
40 | VICTOR CHA
blind- spot strategy on the Korean peninsula. A lot of this is because of the po liti cal tensions
between Tokyo and Seoul. A Yomiuri Shimbun poll in December indicated that well over
80 percent of Japa nese said that they do not trust Korea, which is by far the lowest number.
This is bit worrisome because the problem with Japa nese opinion polling is, unlike Korean
public opinion polls which bounce all over, Japa nese public opinion polling sticks. Genron
NPO, a Japa nese or ga ni za tion that does pretty effective pop u lar polling, indicated that 74
percent of Japa nese think that Korea is to blame for the problems in Korea- Japan relations,
another bad sign. On the question of unifi cation, again the Genron poll found out that only
12 percent of Japa nese thought that the pro cess of unifi cation had begun, that unifi cation
was happening, and that the jackpot speech was leading to a pro cess of unifi cation. Twenty-
six percent of Koreans said that the pro cess of unifi cation had begun. Polling on Japa nese
views of unifi cation is hard to fi nd. In 2007, I think it was Nikkei, did a poll asking the best
way to solve the North Korea problem. They polled Americans, Japa nese, and Koreans.
Japa nese overwhelmingly said that the best way is regime change, which was the third
choice for Koreans, and the second choice for Americans, after diplomacy and pressure.
There has not been polling since, in part because Japa nese newspaper editors were criticized
at the time and have since avoided it. In general, I think the Japa nese view is that they are
favorable to unifi cation. Ambassador Muto, the Japa nese ambassador to Seoul, has given a
speech saying Japan would like to have a demo cratic, peaceful, stable neighbor that is open
for business? that is all good for Japan. But there is anxiety about whether a unifi ed Korean
peninsula would become anti- Japanese. There is a narrative in Tokyo, which I think is wrong,
but it is quite strong in academia, journalism, and in parts of government, that Korea is sliding
into China’s orbit. That creates some anxiety in Japan that was not there 5?10 years ago.
I think it will be hard for Rus sia to have a coherent Asia policy, particularly now, given
what is happening in Ukraine. Putin is obsessed with NATO and obsessed with the West.
The consistent themes we have seen from Moscow and I think we continue to see are: Rus sia
opposes nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula, Rus sia likes the Six- Party Talks, and
Rus sia would like to build a pipeline through North and South Korea to sell LNG to Japan
and Korea. That third point was usually the only one President Putin made in summits when
the North Korea issue came up. I think the dominant feature of Rus sian policy in Asia is
going to be alignment with China, because of the preoccupation with NATO, the West, and
the United States. We will see Rus sia try to peel Japan and Korea off from the Western camp
to try to break up pressure on them for Ukraine. At the end of the day, though, I think
Rus sia will play an important role in unifi cation as a repository state? Russia is able to
accept fi ssile and nuclear material and do the denuclearization pro cess. They have experi-
ence doing it with the United States. That’s an asset. The Rus sians are pretty experienced
diplomatically in the Six- Party pro cess and, as a permanent member of the UN Security
Council, will have an important role to play diplomatically. So Rus sia has long- term invest-
ment, but in the near term, it is going to be diffi cult for Rus sia to play a positive role.
The U.S. has been the most consistent supporter of unifi cation of the Korean peninsula
outside of the Republic of Korea itself. The administration strongly supports President
Park’s policies on unifi cation. The expectation of the U.S. government would be that the
399 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:32:26 ID:c0925434e [sage]
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 41
Korean peninsula, when unifi ed, would be nonnuclear and demo cratic?although govern-
ment offi cials tend not to say this because it is presumptuous?and to have a continuing
U.S.- ROK alliance. Nonnuclear means, in the near term, the very diffi cult job of preventing
the leaking of nuclear material, weapons (chemical or biological), and engineers or weap-
ons offi cers who know how to use them. It is going to be a very tough near- term problem.
A Korean peninsula that is friendly with China and Japan is in U.S. interests. A Korean
peninsula that is in the pro cess of unifi cation and not destabilizing the international
economy, and therefore the IMF, World Bank, and ADB would be important. A pro cess of
unifi cation that is legitimate in the eyes of the world, and the eyes of Congress, in terms of
transparency, denuclearization, property rights, and rule of law in the pro cess of integrat-
ing North Korea into the ROK. At the end of the day, the U.S. has a big stake in successful
demo cratic unifi cation of the Korean peninsula, and not just to get rid of the North Korea
problem, not just turn Northeast Asia power relations in a positive direction, but to set an
example, which Korea has done before.
When I travelled to Indonesia or Myanmar, Korea’s demo cratization in the 1980s is
the one that military offi cers who agreed to demo cratization point to. They do not point
to the U.S. and they do not point to Japan. They point to Korea which successfully transi-
tioned to a demo cratic world from military leadership, did so smoothly, and created an
enormous economic growth pro cess along the way. That is pretty attractive to the TNI or
the current military in Myanmar. Getting this right will have a powerful demonstration
effect in the cross- strait situation and elsewhere, just as the unifi cation of Germany and
demo cratization pro cess in Eastern Eu rope had a powerful effect on Korea and a power-
ful effect in Asia.
This could be a very important demonstration effect. Korea has the tool kits to align the
major powers behind a view of unifi cation as a jackpot not only eco nom ically but for peace.
I think the key tools would be the alliance with the United States (which is in good shape),
the right balance of relations between China and Japan (which Korea doesn’t have right
now), and high standards for human rights, democracy, denuclearization, strong leadership,
and international organizations (which Korea is demonstrating right now). Korea is going
to have to fortify its own democracy? healing internal divisions and building consensus. I
would credit President Park for doing this. I think one of the most important aspects of her
speeches on unifi cation is she is building a middle ground, in a very divisive Korea po liti-
cal environment, where people can talk about unifi cation to begin that consensus within
Korea, which, at the end of the day, will be the most important thing. Korea’s coherent,
stable vision and determination on this will set how China, Rus sia, Japan, and the U.S. play
our parts in this important pro cess of unifi cation.
Dr. Park Ihn- hwi, Ewha Womans University
I am Ihn- hwi Park, teaching at Ewha Womans University. This is always an exciting and
honorable chance to share possibilities of peace on the Korean peninsula with people from
South Korea and the United States. I will mostly discuss the connection and interdependence
400 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:36:12 ID:c0925434e [sage]
42 | VICTOR CHA
between the Korean peninsula and the Northeast Asian region. Every region of the world
has a very unique po liti cal, economic, and sometimes social connotation. The Northeast
Asian region, as an in de pen dent region, has a very unique social, economic, and cultural
background. What is the main difference between the Northeast Asia region and other
regions? People say that Northeast Asia is an in de pen dent region heavily focused on secu-
rity refl ecting critically on the competition of the global powers, such as the United States
and China. Also, the Northeast Asian region has a very interesting coexistence between
global- scale competitors, such as the United States and China, and regional- scale competi-
tions such as the Sino- Japan rivalry or the ROK- Japan rivalry.
Most importantly regarding the main issue of this conference, Northeast Asia has very
unique security concerns with North Korea’s nuclear problems and a still- divided chal-
lenge of the Korean peninsula. The uniqueness of the North Korean nuclear issue is that
there are fi ve countries, normally known as the nuclear club, recognized by the NPT regime.
There are three countries who were never recognized by the NPT regime, India, Pakistan,
and Israel. However, there is a very interesting fundamental difference between the North
Korean case and those three countries. These three countries never joined the NPT regime.
North Korea is the fi rst and only country that successfully conducted nuclear capabilities
as a formal member of the NPT regime. Theoretically speaking, this means that the inter-
national recognition of the nuclear issue of North Korea undermines the justifi cation of the
NPT regime. The North Korea nuclear problem, therefore, has implications not just for
Northeast Asian security but also the integrity of global regimes. The United States and
South Korea have been unsuccessful in their negotiations with North Korea, despite the
efforts of many different administrations, both liberal and conservative, since the fi rst
denuclearization agreement in October 1994 was consummated. What is interesting today
is that all six nations in the Six- Party Talks, not just South Korea, have all transitioned to
new leadership. The Obama administration started its second term after the 2012 presiden-
tial election. The Abe administration began in Japan at the end of 2012. Xi Jinping became
the new leader of China in 2013. Putin began another term in 2012. North Korea also saw
the transition from Kim Jong-il to his son Kim Jong-un. Despite these changes, North Korea
conducted its third nuclear test in February 13, 2013. This was two weeks before Park
Geun- hye’s inauguration. As bad as this action was, the combination of new po liti cal leader-
ship and the crisis occasioned by the nuclear test provides an interesting time and opportu-
nity to begin new approaches to handle the North Korea problem and achieve fundamental
security and economic prosperity in the Northeast Asia region.
The Eu ro pean pre ce dent offers much to be learned in this regard; in par tic u lar, a
Northeast Asian version of the Helsinki pro cess. The interdependent elements of North-
east Asia are striking. If you include only three countries’ GDP (China, Japan, and Korea),
they total almost 25 percent of global GDP. So, in terms of economic, social, and cultural
happenings, the three countries are very interdependent and closely integrated. But if you
move to po liti cal and security conditions, such kinds of indivisible economic and social
integration never easily transfer to positive outcomes, or positive mutual respect among
those countries.
401 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:37:10 ID:c0925434e [sage]
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 43
Theoretically speaking, people say that there is no spillover effect from social and
economic interdependent conditions in Asia to po liti cal and security conditions. President
Park Geun- hye, along with many other leaders, has often referred to this gap between
politics and economics. President Park refers to it as an “Asian paradox.” As long as we
have such a wide gap between po liti cal and economic areas, the establishment of perma-
nent peace between the two Koreas and unifi cation of the Korean peninsula may not be
easily achievable. So again, in terms of the connection between the Korean peninsula and
the Northeast Asia region, one of the critical approaches or solutions to fi gure out perma-
nent stability and economic stability in Northeast Asia is to achieve unifi cation of the
Korean peninsula.
Interestingly enough, the division of the Korean peninsula is a result of international
politics in one sense. So, achieving peaceful reunifi cation on the Korean peninsula should
be conducted with the support of the international community. If you think about the
beginning of modern international relations in Northeast Asia, I would say that it began
only after World War II. Every country may have a different background, but the modern
concept of sovereignty and the nation- state broadly started after World War II. A unifi ed
Korea, however, never experienced this during the time of modern international relations
in Northeast Asia. But despite these unfortunate beginnings, Korean sovereignty and unity
can help to close the gap between the economics and politics of the region. It can help to
resolve the Asian paradox. By saying “unifi cation jackpot,” this raises the hope that peace
and interdependence pervading in a unifi ed Korea could create similar trends in the
region. To achieve those goals and achieve future progress, we also have a couple of con-
cerns and problems. We just assume that the use of force can be limited only to issues like
the denuclearization of North Korea and the possibility of a regime change in North Korea.
So, unifi cation, in this context, may bring the positive pro cess of North Korea’s denuclear-
ization. Again, in terms of the concern of Korea unifi cation within the context of the North-
east Asian region, however, the implications of the use of force would be much broader and
would have critical effects on how neighboring states would see themselves as benefi tting
from unifi cation of the Korean peninsula. We say that unifi cation could be benefi cial not
only to the two Koreas but also to the U.S., China, Japan, and even Rus sia. It is still a tough
question, how to specifi cally show the future benefi t of unifi cation to neighboring coun-
tries, not only in terms of theoretical terrain but also in terms of specifi c benefi t going to
those member countries.
The Park Geun- hye administration aspires to link peace on the Korean peninsula to
peace in the Northeast Asian region. For instance, the Park Geun- hye administration tries
to articulate a peace and cooperation initiative, but also previous Korean administrations
suggested many similar concepts linking regional policies to bring peace on the Korean
peninsula. President Roh Moo- hyun also tried to accomplish this goal with the concept of
Korea as the balancer between the U.S. and China.
Whenever I have a chance to discuss the connection between Korea and the Northeast
Asian region, I say that all countries have unique identities and DNA. However, South
402 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:38:02 ID:c0925434e [sage]
44 | VICTOR CHA
Korea is the only country that identifi es itself as part of the Northeast Asian region. I don’t
believe the U.S., China, and Japan try to describe themselves as Northeast Asian states. If
we have to choose one state in the world in Northeast Asia, then I would say that it is Korea.
That means the regional stability and prosperity of Northeast Asia is most critical in guar-
anteeing and maximizing the future of South Korea’s national interest.
Finally, I would say that if you think about the end of World War II, how many coun-
tries were divided? People would say fi ve, including Germany, Korea, China, Vietnam, and
Yemen. But Yemen can be categorized with a different meaning and signifi cance. After the
unifi cation of Vietnam, South Korea tried their best to avoid the Viet nam ese way of unifi ca-
tion. After German unifi cation, North Koreans are doing their best to avoid Germany’s way
of unifi cation. It is a kind of international general recognition to understand the “One China
policy,” meaning no one identifi es the China and Taiwan condition in terms of competition.
We just assume mainland China under the name of the “One China policy.” We are doing a
lot to fi gure out some lessons of German unifi cation. If you take a look at German unifi cation,
Eu ro pean diplomatic condition and global diplomatic circumstances were fairly critical
factors in bringing permanent unifi cation in the case of Germany. For Korean unifi cation, we
have to visualize that because of the unique dependence of the Korean case and Northeast
Asia region, international cooperation and effi cient diplomatic assistance between the U.S.
and Korea are defi nite factors in achieving unifi cation on the Korean peninsula.
Mr. Christopher Johnson, Center for
Strategic and International Studies
Thank you, Victor, for inviting me to participate on this panel. It is a very interesting topic.
Let me just raise a couple of points. First, I would like to echo Dr. Green’s pre sen ta tion, the
emphasis on stability, obviously for China, as they look at reunifi cation of the peninsula.
No matter what terms that would take place under, China’s core principles really have not
changed on that front. They do want it, as Dr. Green said, to be in de pen dent. They want the
North Koreans to have a heavy say. Obviously, what they want the least is U.S. troops right
on their border. That has really been their long- time concern.
There has been a lot of debates since Xi Jinping, the new Chinese president, took power
in the fall of 2012 about whether or not China’s North Korea policy has been changing and,
therefore, its general approach to the Korean peninsula writ large. The key indicators that
people often cite are the reordering of the Chinese phraseology in terms of its priorities on
the peninsula, moving denuclearization to the front rather than its former position as the
last of three. There as been some discussion about whether or not there is more robust
debate now inside China, with regard to the role North Korea plays for China as a buffer
state. In fact, whether or not that continues to be the case, that debate was quite strong
early on in Xi Jinping’s tenure with some sides arguing that it doesn’t really matter what
type of regime we have there is as long as something is there to physically serve as a buffer.
Others in the debate were arguing that that may have been true in the past, but increasingly
403 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:39:21 ID:c0925434e [sage]
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 45
provocative North Korean behavior may be making that latter true and damaging the
Chinese position in the wider region. It is my sense that this debate has largely quieted, if
not completely gone away, and I do not think that it is because one side or the other neces-
sarily won. I just think that they moved on to other subjects.
The core issue is that a lot of ink and commentary has been spilled on whether or not
China has changed its policy, but that is not really the point. You can argue the merits
and diffi culties of the point as much as you want. I think the key factor is to look at how
Xi Jinping has changed the relationship with North Koreans, and it’s really this idea of
moving the relationship from the traditional special relationship between China and
North Korea to a normal bilateral relationship. I think this is a very strong theme that
we’ve seen under Xi Jinping’s leadership, and there are several things to me that indicate
that this is in fact going on.
The fi rst, of course, is the lack of high- level visits between Chinese and North Koreans.
Kim Jong-un has yet to visit Beijing, and Xi Jinping has no inclination to go to North Korea at
this par tic u lar time. There are still high- level dialogues at the next tier down between the
two sides but there has been no major summitry. Not only that, but Xi Jinping has turned
more towards South Korea in his diplomacy. He seems to have very solid working relation-
ship with President Park, with a very successful summit here recently. Some of this is driven
by this idea that some in China perceive that there is an opportunity, given the close eco-
nomic interdependence growing between China and Republic of Korea’s economies, to peel
South Korea off from the United States. I agree with Dr. Green that it is ridiculous, especially
when you look at the way the summit unfolded between President Park and Xi Jinping. While
there was a lot of positives to this summit, there was also some behavior by the Chinese with
regard to how the summit was arranged, and the things Xi Jinping said at various speeches
that clearly ruffl ed the South Koreans’ feathers. I think those in Beijing, who seem to think
that this is working or there is a huge opportunity here, should be more cautious.
I think the other thing that we see emphasizes this issue of special to normal, is their
whole approach in the region. This is where we come to Xi Jinping’s thoughts on a new
style of major country relations with the United States, but that only the United States
merits a new- style of major country relations. For all the other regional players and every-
one else, it’s more a great power diplomacy approach that is emerging. Gone is the sort of
rhetoric of Deng XiaoPing of biding their time and keeping a low profi le internationally.
Instead we see more of a philosophy where the idea is China is already a rising great power
and should act like a traditional great power in its foreign relations. And this has a real
impact on its approach to the Korean peninsula. I think with North Korea? the message we
see from the new Chinese leadership is basically, “We are the big brother in the partner-
ship, and you are the little brother. Your behavior should not be such that it causes prob-
lems as the larger party, and we are not going to make special sort of arrangements for the
traditional special relationship, such as making sure every time we have a visit with the
South Koreans, there’s a parallel visit with the North Korean side and so on.” In fact, it
appears to me that relations between Xi and Kim Jung-un in par tic u lar are basically non-
existent. I don’t see them radically improving in the near future.
404-1 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:40:11 ID:c0925434e [sage]
46 | VICTOR CHA
Likewise, we see a similar approach to South Korea, where economic interests and the
other interests China has on the peninsula right now lean in that direction, so we see them
emphasizing that relationship. I think this is going to continue going into the future.
So what does this mean for how the Chinese might be thinking about unifi cation? I very
much agree with Dr. Green that this idea of delayed unifi cation is in their interest. They don’t
want to see it happen anytime soon. Certainly, they believe that time is on their side? with
both sides of the relationship, especially with South Korea, where they do believe that, over
time, economics and other factors will allow them to have a stronger sway with South
Koreans. There is a sense, as well, that this way they will have a better set of eyes and ears
by reemphasizing their relationship with South Korea, getting a better feel on both sides on
the peninsula, and for how they are approaching Korean peninsula issues and potential for
unifi cation.
I do think over time that the Chinese won’t refl exively deny the interests or opportunity
for reunifi cation. But for now, the debate about whether or not that could happen and under
what terms has largely been shelved. I think the other thing to stress, in closing, with China’s
approach, is that it is my opinion that Xi Jinping actually is not paying a lot of attention to
North Korea policy or to Korean policy writ large, other than this warming to South Korea.
He set out the tenents to their approach, and he is letting it hold for now while he works on
issues with Rus sia, the relationship with the United States, and so on. Whereas with Hu
Jintao, the issue was a little more on the front lines and a lot of that was due to North Korea’s
behavior, I think with the Xi Jinping administration we are seeing the need to continue to
manage the relationship very carefully and strong concerns about what happens on the
Korean peninsula. But it is not going to be a strong driver for their diplomacy going forward.
Likewise, I think the fundamental reason for why we have been able to see this change
is because of Xi Jinping’s rapid consolidation of power, and the fact that he is running
Chinese foreign policy pretty much unilaterally. The formal mechanisms of Chinese diplo-
macy are not operating as much as they were under the previous leadership.
The foreign ministry has very little say on these policies. Even the party’s international
liaison department, which was very infl uential in shaping the relationship with North Korea
under the previous administration, does not have a whole lot to do with it at this stage. They
are certainly not the in de pen dent infl uence that they had before. We see this in the fact
that the Chinese foreign ministry has begun taking more of a role and managing the
mechanics of bilateral visits and so on with the China and North Korea relationship, and
that the international liaison department’s infl uence has been downgraded, and I expect
that to continue. Likewise, there is no one on this standing committee as was in the previ-
ous Politburo’s standing committee leadership, who really has a say on North Korea policy.
Zhou Yongkang, now famously in trouble with this corruption investigation, had been
educated in North Korea. Even though he was number nine of nine on the former Politburo
standing committee, he had undue infl uence on shaping North Korea policy. Then, you
have several members of that standing committee who, frankly, were very conservative on
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 47
North Korea policy and wanted to see very little change. That is not the case in the new
Politburo standing committee, and Xi is certainly calling the tune on that, and I expect him
to continue doing so going forward.
Mr. Bruce Klingner, Heritage Foundation
404-2 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:40:11 ID:c0925434e [sage]
I think that when we talk about unifi cation, we have to be clear. It really is an absorption
of the north by the south. Indeed, Article 4 of the South Korean constitution calls upon the
Republic of Korea to “formulate and carry out a policy of peaceful unifi cation based on the
principles of freedom and democracy,” neither of which exists in North Korea. So, this is not
a case of trying to average out two systems. Indeed, you cannot. For example, human rights
in North Korea is a 0, South Korea is a 10, you cannot request to get to a 5. You are not just
going to keep some of the North Korean gulags in order to end up with a fi ve in human rights.
Similarly, you cannot equate or average a command economy and free market principles.
So South Korea should not be striving to average these two countries out. But it really is
indeed about having the South Korean system of freedom, democracy, free market prin-
ciples, and respect for law and human rights prevail. There is nothing to say for the North
Korean systems. North Korea knows this, and that is why they are so resistant to the Dres-
den declaration of President Park, or opening up their economy or their po liti cal system to
what they see is contagion of outside infl uence.
I think there would be perhaps three scenarios for unifi cation. The fi rst is the Blue House
gets a phone call from Pyongyang. They say, “We’ve been talking amongst ourselves and
you guys win. We will leave the lights on. But you guys win, and the country is yours. We’re
all heading to cross the border into China.” That’s not going to happen. The second scenario
is a gradual reconciliation, a gradual reform, a gradual meeting in the middle between the
Koreas, and that is also not going to happen. Because Kim Jong-un, like his pre de ces sors,
has made it very clear that they have no interest in implementing po liti cal or economic
reform. The North Korean leaders made that clear in their New Year’s Day speeches and
their central committee comments. They even became so frustrated with speculation of
impending reform under Kim Jong-un that they issued statements stating that “foolish
politicians of the world, particularly in the south, should not expect us to change one iota
from Kim Jong-il or Kim Il- sung.” We know that they are not going to change.
As we look around the region, as our speakers have done today, I would agree that China
has not changed its policy. Even though China said it accepts Korean unifi cation, there is a
very big asterisk to what conditions Beijing would accept. When Xi Jinping was in Seoul and
spoke at Seoul National University, he made a great declaration of how Korea and China
share interests, citing the Imjin War. I might have responded to Xi, “Sir, there was a more
recent war in the 1950s when China fought against South Korea.” Some Koreans blame the
United States for dividing the peninsula, but the Allied forces were on the cusp of uniting
the Korean peninsula in 1950 but China prevented that. I think that is something South
Korea should keep in mind when Beijing has its latest charm offensive towards Seoul.
405 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:41:01 ID:c0925434e [sage]
48 | VICTOR CHA
Certainly, Beijing does not have South Korea’s best interests at heart when they push South
Korea against better defending its population against the North Korean missile threat, by
pressuring Seoul against adopting better ballistic missile defense, etc.
When addressing the other great player, it is important to include the U.S. even when
we talk about Northeast Asian perspectives because we are very much involved. People have
asked over time “what is the U.S. policy on unifi cation?” U.S. diplomats get frustrated by
this and respond that the U.S. policy has always been protecting Korea as it works towards
peaceful unifi cation. As the father of a teenage daughter, I think it’s fi ne for the Koreas
to talk and it is fi ne for the Koreas to date. Our role is as the protective father, walking
10 steps behind with a shotgun, making sure South Korea is not taken advantage of. But on
the issue of unifi cation, Korea should be in the driver’s seat since this is a matter for the
Korean people. The U.S. is just there to make sure that South Korea’s interests are protected.
And when people ask, “what would be the role for the U.S. Forces Korea after unifi cation?”
I think it is too early to say. It will depend on the timing and it will depend on the circum-
stances of when that happens. Perhaps both the U.S. and South Korea would see no more
need for U.S. Forces in Korea, and we would come home. Or there may be growing concern,
as there is now, about Chinese intentions. I think that’s an issue that we can skip over for now.
There has also been a lot of talk today about the “jackpot” resulting from unifi cation. I
think that reference was an appeal by President Park to the South Korean populace. There
has been declining support domestically for Korean unifi cation, particularly amongst the
youth. I saw recent polls where, for the fi rst time in my memory, a majority of South Koreans
did not support unifi cation. The number, I believe, was 49 percent in support of unifi cation,
and I believe that was the fi rst time that it had dipped below 50 percent. Particularly the
younger generation sees the negative economic impact that unifi cation would have on their
personal economy and the national economy. So, in a way, President Park’s appeal that
unifi cation would not be a drain on the economy, but would instead be a jackpot, was a way
of trying to reverse this downward trend in South Korean public support for unifi cation.
We can all be hopeful for the unifi cation, but I do not see it happening anytime soon.
I am reminded of the year 2000, when after the fi rst inter- Korean summit and the very
emotional joint North? South Korea walking side- by- side into the Sydney Olympics. A very
se nior CIA offi cial chastised those of us working on the Korean issue that we were missing
it. That the Koreas were on the cusp of unifi cation and, just like the Soviet analysts had
missed the collapse of the Soviet Union, like the German analysts had missed the rapid
unifi cation of Germany, that we were getting it wrong. We really had to understand that
Korea was on the cusp of unifi cation. Well, he was wrong. As we pointed out at the time, if
this was like Germany, it wasn’t the Germanies right after the fall of the Berlin Wall. It was
more like the Germanies in 1970 when they started engagement.
So, I think we can hope for unifi cation. Certainly, we should be prepared for it, but I think
I don’t see it happening anytime soon. As Dr. Green pointed out, unifi cation has to happen
with the collapse. Not that anyone wants to induce collapse, because we are afraid of what
406 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:41:58 ID:c0925434e [sage]
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 49
could happen. It is as if we are one side of the swamp. We are in the stable environment.
On the other side of the swamp, we see the quest?we see a peaceful unifi cation of the
Korean people. The problem is that, between here and there, is a very messy and poten-
tially dangerous swamp. And no one wants to jump into that swamp in order to get to the
other side. So right now, it tends to be passive, the devil you know rather than the devil you
don’t know. But that is not to say that we cannot still be preparing for it and certainly still
be hoping for it.
50 |
Panel D: Global Perspectives
Dr. Kurt Campbell, The Asia Group
Thank you very much. It’s terrifi c to be back at CSIS. Let me thank Victor, because as you all
know, he puts together some of the most interesting, thought- provoking panels as a part of
his efforts here at CSIS. He’s also working on a long overdue study with the Bush Institute
to consider what to do with the North Korean human rights situation and the refugees that
have been coming out of North Korea now for over a generation. Also, it’s great to be with
Korean friends and the dean of Asia specialists, Stapleton Roy. I’ll try to be on my best
behavior and offer some ideas for how to think about the next steps as we go forward.
I would say, generally speaking, when I’ve worked in government (this is my third time,
once on the Joint Chief of Staffs and Trea sury, and another time with the Department of
Defense, and most recently at the State Department) one of the things that ties that period
together of almost 25 years is a set of unbelievably vexing problems associated with North
Korea, the pa ram e ters of which have changed very little over the course of 25 years. Indeed,
the playbook itself, as I was listening to the pleas of the three “visitors” in North Korea
about wanting help from the international community or the United States, is a playbook
that is like the Green Bay Packers of the 1960s. They run three plays over and over again,
and we’re in the midst of one of those well- understood plays where we resist initially and
then we fi nally fi gure out some way to talk to the North Koreans. They are disappointed
with what we put on the table, but in some, either exhaustion or sense of enough of this,
release this person. Tom is the master of this. He’s been involved in several of them. But
I think it is undoubtedly the case that the people who work on North Korea inside the U.S.
government are suffering from not only a kind of fatigue but a sense of exhaustion in the
sense of the strategies that have been applied.
There have been periods where we tried substantial pressure. There have been periods,
more regular periods, in which certain complex nuances of diplomacy are tried. We’ll try
to do this, signal we’ll do this; then they’ll say this, and then we’ll do this. The most arcane
choreography of orchestration of diplomacy imaginable is associated with North Korea.
In this arena, however, with the arrival in power of Kim Jong-un, some of the former
playbook no longer works. It is not clear that our former interlocutors at the foreign minis-
try, or even in se nior positions in the military, have the trust and confi dence of the se nior
leadership. Many of these people are no longer around. Frankly, they’ve been retired from
407 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:43:13 ID:c0925434e [sage]
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 51
ser vice in many circumstances. We are left with a set of circumstances that most of the
se nior players inside the U.S. government right now, in a fundamental sense, are at a loss
about how to proceed. We often talk about this with regard to strategic patience. In truth, it
is also the case that many of the tools we’ve tried have just simply not worked. We are in a
set of circumstances now where it is not clear, fundamentally, the way forward. I’ll talk a
little more about that as we proceed.
One of the tendencies has been, and I will put myself in this category, to try to redefi ne
elements of the problem. Clearly, we have not been successful in putting substantial pres-
sure on North Korea, or seeing any kind of either domestic reform or inhibition on nuclear
or proliferation activities. We have not been able to effect the kind of change that basically
a generation of diplomacy has been aiming towards and for.
What we have been successful in is keeping the Six- Party group of nations together.
We have kept a relatively solid front. No one has broken out to support or to be involved
in North Korean surreptitious activities that are fundamentally not in the best strategic
interests of the United States or other countries. China, over time, has come to understand
that North Korea is, in fact, acting in ways that are quite antithetical to its strategic inter-
ests. It may not acknowledge that publicly on a regular basis, but I think what we’ve seen
in the last several years is a deep frustration and worry that, in many respects, what North
Korea is doing is creating a security dynamic in North Korea that is profoundly not in China’s
strategic interest. What that means over time, I’m not sure we know, but that is a profound
change from 15 or 20 years ago, when the prevailing sentiment in Beijing was quite differ-
ent about North Korea.
It is also the case that sentiments and views in the United States and other countries about
what we would like to see on the Korean peninsula have changed substantially. I think there
were periods in the past where major countries, or elements within countries, believed
that a continuing separation of North Korea was in the best strategic interest of Northeast
Asia. I do not believe that is the case any longer. I think there is a broad, overwhelming
assessment that peaceful reunifi cation and a move towards unifi cation on the Korean
peninsula is in the best strategic interests of most of the major players of Northeast Asia,
and even countries where there have been some elements of ambivalence. I think some of
that has been swept away by repeated human rights abuses and issues associated with the
most provocative antithetical language that emanates from North Korea more generally.
Here I think I have to compliment both the last administrations. What we have seen is,
in many respects, almost a so cio log i cal, po liti cal change in South Korea and how they talk
about unifi cation. The idea that if you look at the history of Chinese foreign policy, the
greatest success of Chinese foreign policy over the last 30 years is the concept of one China,
and that nations and groups that stand in opposition to one China are working at cross-
purposes in terms of the best interests of the Chinese people. I believe a variation of that
concept is becoming more prevalent in South Korea since Korea is one people and one
nation. And efforts taken to divide the Korean peninsula are not in the strategic best interests
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52 | VICTOR CHA
of the country. I would say that the most recent, very ambitious diplomacy between Madame
Park and President Xi is at least a modest step in the direction of articulating a view of a
Korea in the future that does not face this division that has been so diffi cult and problem-
atic over time. I think the challenge that I’ve seen in a lot of the commentary about South
Korea assumes that the pro cess, however, will be smooth and without diffi culty.
Now, we talked this morning about the economic dimensions. Clearly, the gap in economic
per for mance between the north and the south is enormous and the going-in presumption
in German diplomacy was that Germany saved an enormous amount. Then, the aggregate
capability would allow East Germany to recover more rapidly when in fact it was not the
aggregate but the differential between East and West Germany. I think we are going to
confront that problem in spades between North and South Korea.
But Victor asked me primarily to talk about the security dimensions of this problem.
I think it would be fair to say that the United States in conjunction with South Korea, but
also occasionally with Japan and irregularly with China, have had conversations over
almost a 20- year period about uncertainty on the Korean peninsula. These conversations
between the United States and South Korea are extraordinarily detailed and complex, and
they become more so over time. The conversations with China are halting and diffi cult.
Under many circumstances, it is the United States that talks and China listens and takes
notes but does not feel that it wants to comment on circumstances in par tic u lar. I think it
is also the case that, with tensions between Korea and Japan currently, there are obvious
limitations about what is possible. If you look at the situation 15?20 years ago in Asia, and
indeed until quite recently, North Korea stood as the one profound problem area in Asia. If
we could simply get beyond this issue, then we would have at least the potential for more
peace and stability and harmony in Northeast Asia.
I remember our good friend, our ambassador from Australia to the United States, refers
to Asia often as the sunny uplands, the place that American and others can turn to if they
want to be reminded about returns on investments, strategically and po liti cally. I will say,
recent years suggest that Asia’s future will be challenging. We are facing tensions and
maritime security issues, a variety of po liti cal dynamics that involve history and territory,
future ambitions, and military protocols that will be extraordinarily diffi cult.
The North Korean issue is not alone any longer in Asia and complicating the po liti cal
dynamics. However, on almost every issue, there is a level of growing distrust and a lack of
confi dence at strategic levels in Northeast Asia. In terms of how you would handle a major
problem, either around a disputed island, an issue of associated navigation, or a sudden
change on the Korean peninsula. So it was the case in the past that I was one of those
people who had at least some confi dence that there would be the necessary diplomacy
between the United States and China about developments on the Korean peninsula. I think
that in the current environment, we would have to be somewhat worried that the pa ram e-
ters of that diplomacy would be extraordinarily complex, probably surrounded by an
enormous amount of uncertainty and suspicion. So, it strikes me that in the period ahead, I
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KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 53
was a person who believed that in our north- south diplomacy, we should increasingly
expect South Korea to take a leading role. I think one of the conceits of American diplomacy
with North Korea was to seek to lead that pro cess sometimes without appropriate consulta-
tion and leadership from South Korea. I think we’ve now reached a period where we
should be confi dent and comfortable with South Korea taking a leading role in diplomacy
with North Korea. But in addition to that, if we ever face a situation of dramatic change in
North Korea, which I think is a very real possibility given the many uncertainties we’re
facing in North Korea, the critical role on the peninsula is likely to lie in Seoul. In the past,
I would have said the critical players in this would be the United States, and perhaps fi rst
among equals, China. But increasingly, it will be the role that South Korea plays, which
would require remarkable foresight, preparation, capability, and maturity. These are
things that I think require very deep consultations between the United States and South
Korea. The most important diplomacy that needs to take place in advance is actually not
between the United States and China. That’s critical; that’s number two. What’s most im-
portant is the diplomacy between the United States and South Korea, about expectations,
about preparations, and the like, and then, following that, a kind of three- way diplomacy
that involves Japan, as well. South Korea, and the United States, and then China going
forward.
All told, I would say we face a set of diffi culties, challenges, and uncertainties with
regard to North Korea and we have two choices, two possible ways forward. One is a set of
very serious problems, and another even more serious set of problems, so there’s no good
outcome. There’s no way forward that doesn’t involve massive numbers of refugees, uncer-
tainties associated with weapons of mass destruction, questions about the role of U.S.
forces, Chinese forces across the border, what to do with problems, schisms inside the
military, or security establishments in North Korea. These are all problems that will con-
found any stable, secure effort, and I believe will pose the most signifi cant diplomatic
challenge of the last 25 years.
In conclusion, there are a number of things I think the United States should be doing
more of with South Korea. Obviously, we’ve talked about in the morning sessions the
economic and commercial sides. I have to commend South Korean friends for the steps
they have taken to welcome North Korean friends. I would like to see the United States do
more of that. We, today, host very few North Korean refugees in the United States. We
should do more of that. What we do, I think, is primarily done by religious organizations.
I think that’s terrifi c, but I’d like to see other opportunities for North Koreans to come to
study in American universities, to have the opportunity to train and the like. To date,
much of that training is about technical issues, questions associated with modern com-
mercialism and the like. Increasingly, we’re going to have to train and prepare some of
these people who have left North Korea to understand issues associated with governance
to think carefully about the way forward. That’s exactly what we did with South Africa
for almost 25 years. Many of the people that staffed the initial South African government
were trained in the United States, Britain, and elsewhere. We need to do more of that. We
need to take that on.
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54 | VICTOR CHA
I’d also like to see a set of circumstances where we broadcast more, try to actually take
steps to have more information penetration into North Korea, and have that be a little bit
more nuanced and active than it has been in the past.
As we think about our overall tool kit, there is one element of our strategy that I do not
think people fully appreciate. We often think of North Korea, I certainly did, as one of the
most sanctioned countries in the world with almost impossible obstacles for people who want
to travel, invest, and the like. It turns out, when I was at the State Department working on
Myanmar or Burma, comparing Burma to North Korea is night and day. Burma has much
more in the way of sanctions and challenges associated with interactions. If we faced a set of
further challenges with respect to North Korea, it would be possible for us to put more fi nan-
cial pressure on North Korea. I think we need to let Chinese friends know and understand
that some of the things that have been contemplated by the new regime, if followed through
on, would entail and involve a reaction that is much more strenuous than we’ve seen in the
past. I think that element of our diplomacy is likely to be necessary as we go forward.
Ultimately, sometimes you ask yourself: How important are these sessions? How impor-
tant are war games? How important are issues associated with planning in advance? I remem-
ber a se nior offi cial, when I was at the White House, saying we had set up a morning session
to go through how to think about what would happen if we faced a certain amount of uncer-
tainty. This person was a little impatient in saying, well, look, there’s so many parameters?
why spend the time doing this? I remember I responded, “Look, this is not an attempt. There
will be no answers, but to socialize yourself to prepare to think about the questions, chal-
lenges, and problems ahead.” We have to do more of that, and we have to do it with Korean
friends, and this is an arena where track two and think tanks have an enormously impor-
tant role. That is one of the reasons why I’m grateful to Victor for taking this on.
Dr. Kim Jaechun, Sogang University
Let me preface by saying that it is really an honor to be among these distinguished experts
and a distinguished audience today. In the previous sessions, we talked about unifi cation
benefi ts; in par tic u lar, the benefi ts of unifi cation that can be brought about and the benefi ts
that unifi cation can bring to the people on the Korean peninsula and in Northeast Asia, as
well as to the major stakeholder countries in the region. We also talked about the ways in
which we can materialize those unifi cation benefi ts on the Korean peninsula and North-
east Asian region. The thing I want to present today is a little bit different. I’d like to incor-
porate global perspectives into this unifi cation benefi t discussion.
President Park called unifi cation an economic bonanza or “daebak” early this year. This
has in effect rekindled people’s interest in South Korea and the region regarding unifi ca-
tion, and notably in expanding the benefi ciaries and the scope of the unifi cation benefi ts.
After the deabak theory was proposed, much of the discussion has revolved around
mutual benefi ts. There has been a tendency to view Korean unifi cation as an event that will
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KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 55
benefi t mostly the Korean people. Surely, the biggest benefi ciary of unifi cation would be
people on the Korean peninsula. However, the benefi ciaries of Korean unifi cation can be much
more diverse. As President Park’s “daebak” theory purports, it can also benefi t the people
in Northeast Asia and major stakeholder countries in the region. In addition, the scope of
unifi cation benefi ts can also be much broader. My contention is that unifi cation would be
an historic world event that could contribute to the international community. We tend to
interpret the outcomes of unifi cation mainly in terms of security and economic benefi ts
only, but the benefi ts of Korean unifi cation can go beyond those two areas and contribute
to many issue areas in international relations, such as nonproliferation, human rights, envi-
ronmental protection, human traffi cking, and even money laundering. President Park’s
description of Korean unifi cation as an “economic bonanza” has enlarged the benefi ciaries
of unifi cation from the Korean peninsula to the Northeast Asian region. But the discussion
has taken place only in the regional and economic contexts, and I think we need to take
this discourse to an international level and discuss it in the broader context of many differ-
ent issue areas in international relations. This is important because, in my view, Korean
unifi cation is a world historic event that could benefi t the international community and it
is important for Korea to get the international community involved in this unifi cation
discourse.
The successful unifi cation of Korea can work as international public goods by sending
two big messages to the world. One message would be that intractable confl icts can be
resolved. The world is plagued by a number of intractable confl icts, and I think the Korean
peninsula has been one of those zones of age- old confl icts in the world. By resolving the
confl icts on the Korean peninsula, unifi cation can impart a positive message to the world
that seemingly intractable confl icts can be resolved if we put in good faith efforts. Success-
ful Korean unifi cation also means that integration is possible. In today’s world, growing
income in e qual ity across nation- states and within nation- states has been one of the many
problems associated with the unfettered advance of globalization. How can we resolve it?
Maybe a successful integration of South Korea and North Korea can present a model. South
Korea, one of the top economies in the world, is a successful, rich country. In contrast to
that, North Korea is one of the most backward countries in the world. So, successful inte-
gration of these two Korean societies can work as a model for resolving polarization of
incomes or inequalities or as a model for social integration. The Korean unifi cation can
also provide international public goods in several ways. First, it can serve as a nuclear free
Korea. The re- unifi ed Korea will be free from not just nuclear weapons but all kinds of
weapons of mass destruction. The country will also eliminate nuclear safety problems in
North Korea and remain as a model country for peaceful use of nuclear energy. This will
result in strengthening the international nonproliferation regime.
Second, the reunifi ed Korea can become a Green Korea. Since the division of Korea,
North Korea has suffered severe environmental degradation and deforestation.
Korean reunifi cation will restore the ecosystem in North Korea and improve the envi-
ronment on the Korean peninsula. The DMZ peace park can work as a test case for this
endeavor.
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56 | VICTOR CHA
Third, Korean unifi cation will be a champion of human rights. North Korea is a
country where demo cratic values are ignored and human rights are denied. Korean
reunifi cation could lead to a great accomplishment in the promotion and protection of
international human rights by advancing liberal demo cratic values and human rights in
North Korea.
Fourth, unifi ed Korea will be a promoter of trade liberalization. A unifi ed Korea will
defi nitely pursue free trade, and this will defi nitely reinforce the existing free interna-
tional trade order.
Korean reunifi cation means resolution of all the problems associated with North Korea.
It means improvements of world security situation as a whole. This will enforce existing
world order and existing global governance in many issue areas in international relations.
One caveat is that in order for unifi cation to work as an international public good, I think
several conditions should be met. First, unifi cation should not be a reunifi cation which
brings the situation to the status quo of 70 or 80 years ago. Reunifi cation should be a new
reunifi cation, meaning that we would have to create a new country that embodies not only
nationalistic visions of values but espouses universal values. So, nationalism should not be
too much of a driving force for reunifi cation. Unifi cation should espouse a universal vision,
not a nationalistic one. Unifi cation should not be a simple extension of the South Korean
system to North Korea. Unifi cation should fulfi ll a more refi ned vision, so that we can appeal
to the international community. A more refi ned vision, of course, includes peace Korea,
green Korea, human rights Korea, and Korea as a big promoter of international free trade.
In order for this to happen, we need to have solid plans, and we have to execute these plans,
in order for reunifi cation to work as international public goods for the international
community.
Ambassador Stapleton Roy, Wilson Center
We’ve had two very excellent pre sen ta tions. Kurt Campbell has stressed the complexity
of the whole issue of Korean unifi cation, and Professor Kim has talked about the potential
economic bonanza it could create. In other words, he looked at some of the positive aspects
of unifi cation. Our panel is supposed to be talking about unifi cation and the security envi-
ronment, looking at the broader, potentially global aspects of this. My reaction to the
pre sen ta tions is that we don’t know how Korean unifi cation will take place. We have four
divided countries that resulted from World War II. Two of them have unifi ed. The unifi ca-
tions, in each case, took place in ways that had not been anticipated. Viet nam ese unifi cation
occurred largely because of the collapse of President Nixon’s domestic po liti cal position,
and the fact that the administration was left powerless in dealing with the negative reac-
tions to the Vietnam War to intervene in any way. This created circumstances for the
reunifi cation of Vietnam, which was violent. It occurred because of a major war, and then
it was still violent. It was an invasion essentially of North Vietnam into South Vietnam. The
German case took place largely because of the unraveling of the Soviet empire in Eastern
Eu rope, something that people had not anticipated. It was peaceful. So, when we look at
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KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 57
Korea and China, I think we should assume that we cannot anticipate at this point exactly
what the circumstances are that will suddenly create the opportunities for unifi cation. It
could be violent or it could be peaceful.
We can comment on the fact that the end results will have different effects. Certainly,
one would hope in Korea’s case that the reunifi cation would be peaceful and contribute to
a more stable East Asia. Now, Korea has a special problem. It’s at the intersection point of
great power rivalries. In the nineteenth and twentieth century, it was caught up in the
rivalries between Qing dynasty China and imperial Japan, between imperial Japan and the
Rus sian empire, between imperial Japan and Republican China, and between the United
States, the Soviet Union, and the People’s Republic of China in the post? Cold War period.
Now, these are major contributing factors to why Korea is a divided country. The inter-
ests of the Korean people have been secondary considerations in this great power politics,
giving rise to a phrase; Korea has been a shrimp among competing whales.
I think it is fair to say, however, that Korea is no longer a shrimp. You could defi ne it as
a lobster, or maybe as a great white shark. I think South Korea is much more in the position
that West Germany was in at the time of unifi cation. It has gotten real heft, and if you look
at the unifi cation pro cess, in each case of the two that have been unifi ed, one of the parties
was the driver in the unifi cation pro cess, and the other, essentially, had to accept what
emerged. If we think about Korean unifi cation, you would have to conclude that South
Korea was clearly in a stronger position to be in the driver’s seat in any type of unifi cation
scenario. But again, that does not answer the question of whether it will be peaceful or
whether it will not be peaceful, and whether it will contribute to stability or contribute to
instability in Northeast Asia.
Given the fact that the Korean people themselves have been the principal victims of
the great power rivalries in which Korea has been either a prawn or a pawn, depending on
which term of speech you want to use, it’s clearly desirable for Korean unifi cation to give
rise to new circumstances in Northeast Asia, marked by stability and opportunities for
economic development and prosperity. Is that an impossible goal? The answer is no. Ger-
man unifi cation was seen to have, in many ways, contributed to that. But you could also
argue that German unifi cation created circumstances in Eu rope which looked like a dream
outcome for 20 years, and, all of a sudden, we’re beginning to see the potential for new
confl ict, emerging from the circumstances that were created by the collapse of the Soviet
empire. In other words, we don’t want that pattern to repeat itself for Northeast Asia. It’s
frankly too dangerous, and we have to worry about it. This is not going to be an issue left
entirely to the interests of the Koreans themselves. Great powers are still great powers.
Japa nese interests, Chinese interests, Rus sian interests, and American interests are all
going to be factors in unifi cation, not simply the wills and desires of the Korean people
themselves, important as those are.
From Japan’s standpoint, it’s unacceptable from a security standpoint for a unifi ed
Korean peninsula to have the potential to drift into China’s sphere of infl uence. And from
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58 | VICTOR CHA
China’s standpoint, it’s unacceptable to have a unifi ed Korean peninsula that could be used
as a great power platform for threats against China. So, how do you compromise those two
types of considerations? I think President Park and her Dresden speech wisely referred to
perhaps we need some type of a cooperation and security system created in Northeast Asia
that could address these types of issues. I think that is a likely consideration, but the question
is, are current security arrangements in Northeast Asia compatible with the type of new
security and cooperation system that would have to emerge? And, if so, how do you handle
that transition? Once again, great power interests are clearly an important consideration.
We often talk about the law of unintended consequences, but there is also the law of
unexpected consequences. The two are not the same. An unintended consequence may be
something that you knew would happen, but it wasn’t the real reason you did what you did.
An unexpected consequence is something you had not anticipated. It is very important to
try to anticipate the potential consequences of Korean unifi cation. One of those, I would
point out, is that Korean unifi cation would leave China as the last country that is un-
unifi ed. My judgment, as someone who has lived a long time in China, is that is going to
change the psychology of the Chinese people, and it’s something we need to bear in mind.
Domestic pressures in China to complete Chinese unifi cation are going to increase if Ko-
rean unifi cation takes place. The problem is, while remarkable common interests have
been created across the Taiwan Strait between the mainland and Taiwan, they have less-
ened support for dangerous in de pen dence scenarios on the part of Taiwan. They have
greatly increased support for maintenance of the status quo in Taiwan, but they have not
increased support in Taiwan for reunifi cation with the mainland. If unifi cation of Korea
were to create pressures from China to unify under conditions where Taiwan has not yet
moved to a willingness to accept a unifi cation outcome, we could have a very dangerous
situation in East Asia. And this could be an unintended consequence of Korean unifi cation,
but it shouldn’t necessarily be an unexpected consequence. In other words, we need to
think about these considerations, because if you look at history, things occur, which then
create follow-on consequences, and in many cases, those follow-on consequences are very
negative. That is not what we would like to happen in the case of Korean unifi cation.
Is Korean unifi cation compatible with the interests of the major powers? In my judg-
ment, it is. Kurt Campbell, I think, referred to this. The United States has offi cially endorsed
the concept of unifi cation. China, in my judgment, cannot afford to impose unifi cation
because it is not yet unifi ed itself, and it would simply be untenable for China to impose the
unifi cation of a divided country. But it will want the circumstances to be compatible with
Chinese interests. Rus sia, I don’t think, has any reason to want to oppose Korean unifi ca-
tion. So, the issue is not really great power opposition to unifi cation. The issue lies in the
fact that has been referred to by our presenters, which is, the developments since World
War II have created two different types of Korea that are far more different in their essences
than was the division between the two parts of Germany, which when unifi cation took
place in Germany, actually was very, very diffi cult to overcome. It wasn’t just the economic
imbalances. It was the whole different attitudes of mind that had been generated on the
part of people who had grown up under a social system and those who had grown up under
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KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 59
a free, open system. You have those same types of differences embedded in the Korean
peninsula, and this is one of the issues that you need the cooperation of the great powers,
in order to overcome those types of obstacles in bringing about the unifi cation that ought to
serve the interests of all of the interested parties.
Dr. Kim Yung Ho, Sungshin Women’s University
I want to extend my thanks to the organizers of this conference. It is an honor to be a
member of such a distinguished panel. There is no surprise left when it comes to the last of
the discussions of the last panel, but I will try. I agree with what Dr. Campbell said in his
illuminating pre sen ta tion. Especially, I agree with what he said about the emerging con-
sensus that Korean unifi cation not only benefi ts the Korean people but also all the countries
in the region and, as Dr. Kim said, the international community. I also agree with what Dr.
Kim laid out on the effect of Korean reunifi cation. Especially, I liked Dr. Kim’s conclusion
that the benefi ciaries and the scope of Korean unifi cation benefi ts are much broader than
are generally thought. So, I’m going to offer some comments to elaborate on the important
points made by the two previous presenters.
The fi rst point I want to make is that Korean unifi cation should be pursued and achieved
in the geopo liti cal context of emerging U.S.- Chinese global hegemonic competition. I think
it is very important to understand this point because U.S.- Chinese hegemonic competition
is going to have a very signifi cant impact on the new international order in the twenty- fi rst
century. The Korean peninsula was divided as a result of the postwar global hegemonic
competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. Now the Soviet Union is gone,
and a rising China is emerging as athe next competitor of the United States in the second
hegemonic competition in the twenty- fi rst century. So, I think we need to understand the
current geostrategic environment when we approach the Korean unifi cation issue from a
global perspective. As Ambassador Roy explained to us in detail in his discussion, histori-
cally the Korean peninsula became the battleground for regional and global hegemonic
competitions whenever such confl icts took place among great powers. So, peaceful Korean
unifi cation can be achieved only when we can prevent the Korean peninsula from falling
under the infl uence of regional and global power rivalry, particularly as we face the U.S.-
Chinese hegemonic competition emerging in Asia. At today’s conference, I heard that the
Park Geun- hye government has focused on the economic benefi ts and aspects of Korean
unifi cation, but I think it is not true. President Park Geun- hye and her government have
also paid attention to the geopo liti cal dimension as well as the economic dimension of
Korean unifi cation. President Park Geun- hye proposed the Trust- Building Pro cess on the
Korean peninsula as a policy mea sure to achieve peaceful unifi cation. Her government
also proposed the Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative. These sets of policies
show us that the current Korean government has also considered the geopo liti cal aspects
of the Korean unifi cation.
The next question is what kind of policy options can South Korea take in this geopo liti-
cal context to achieve peaceful unifi cation. My suggestion is that Koreans need to take a
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60 | VICTOR CHA
realistic approach based on the historical lessons they can draw from the dealings with
great powers in the past. As Ambassador Roy explained to us in detail, Koreans experienced
many different power systems in the past. These examples include the Chinese military
hegemony, the Japa nese imperial hegemony, and the Soviet communist hegemony, and,
fi nally, the American liberal hegemony. So, according to the experience of the Korean people,
I think among these different hegemonies, American hegemony was the most benefi cial to
Koreans in terms of security, po liti cal, and economic development. Also, the Republic of
Korea was on the winning side of the Cold War, the fi rst global hegemonic competition,
with the help of the U.S.- ROK alliance.
I think maintaining the U.S.- ROK alliance and upgrading this alliance in the twenty-
fi rst century is critical for peaceful Korean unifi cation and for peace and prosperity in the
region. To approach the issue of Korean unifi cation, we need to understand the current
U.S. rebalancing strategy, especially whether this is in the South Korean national interest
or not. My answer is that it is in the South Korean national interest because this new strat-
egy will strengthen the U.S.- ROK alliance and also deepen diplomatic and military and
economic cooperation between the two countries. The Obama administration’s rebalanc-
ing to Asia is a clear expression of the U.S. intention to continue to assume a role of balance
in the region. A continued U.S. presence and security commitment in the region is pivotal
and indispensable to security and prosperity in the region. The U.S.- ROK alliance and the
U.S.- Japan alliance are the two most important pillars to support the U.S. presence in the
region. In this respect, I believe it is very important to restore ROK- Japanese relations. I think
it is not prudent to give North Korea maneuvering room to drive a wedge between Korea
and Japan. A good ROK- Japanese relationship is very important for the resolution of the
North Korean nuclear issue and peaceful Korean unifi cation.
To approach Korean unifi cation from a global perspective, I think I need to briefl y
mention China’s new strategy. Mr. Johnson, in the previous panel, mentioned China’s new
strategy as a new type of great power relations. In my view, from the South Korean per-
spective, the denuclearization of North Korea is an important litmus test for the successful
development of China’s new type of great power relationship strategy. If China does not
play a constructive role in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, credibility of China’s
new strategy will be in doubt. I think it is not enough for China to use its diplomacy to hold
the Six- Party Talks. I think China needs to do more to resolve the North Korean nuclear
problem. During today’s conference, China specialists mentioned China’s policy on Korean
unifi cation, called “delayed unifi cation.” I interpret China’s intention of delayed unifi cation
as an attempt to extend the buffer area to South Korea, including North Korea. I think
China’s attempt to extend the buffer area to South Korea cannot be successful, and this
attempt would also be detrimental to peace and prosperity in the region.
413-2 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:51:05 ID:c0925434e [sage]
Finally, I want to mention the North Korean nuclear issue, which is the most serious
impediment to Korean peaceful reunifi cation. North Korea’s nuclear program poses three
very serious problems. The fi rst one is the transfer of nuclear materials and technology to
other countries and terrorist groups. The second one is the nuclear domino effect. The
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 61
third one is a nuclear war on the Korean peninsula. Because of the limited time, I will just
briefl y mention the nuclear domino effect.
The United States is very concerned about the domino effect because it will undermine
the NPT regime, which is one of the most important cornerstones of American foreign
policy. To prevent this domino effect in Asia, the U.S. provides a nuclear umbrella to Japan
and the ROK in the form of extended nuclear deterrence. However, for South Koreans,
North Korea’s nuclear weapon is a cash in hand to be used anytime. In contrast, extended
nuclear deterrence is a check which takes time to be cashed in. So, when North Korea’s de
facto nuclear status becomes a reality, this domino effect cannot totally be excluded in
South Korea for domestic po liti cal reasons. To avoid this domino effect, the U.S. and ROK
need to fi nd a way to enhance the in de pen dent, conventional war- fi ghting capabilities of
the ROK army. In this respect, the U.S. and ROK need to consider signing a defense trade
cooperation treaty. The U.S. signed a defense trade cooperation treaty with Great Britain
and Australia. These treaties can be used as a model for the future U.S.- ROK defense trade
treaty. This treaty will enhance the interoperability between the military forces of the two
countries and will also enable the two countries to deal with the conventional and nuclear
threats from North Korea. I think the treaty would also prevent the domino effect from
taking place in South Korea by making clear, and reaffi rming, the U.S. commitment to the
security of South Korea.
414 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:51:54 ID:c0925434e [sage]
62 |
CLOSING REMARKS
Dr. Victor Cha, Center for Strategic
and International Studies
T
o close today’s events, let me fi rst thank all of the panelists for joining us. They are all
very busy individuals, and some of them have come a very long way to join us. Over
the course of the day, we have had a lot of different discussions on unifi cation from differ-
ent angles. Let me offer, in closing, fi ve quick points about unifi cation as a bonanza and
thinking about it in the future.
The fi rst is a historical point. We talk a lot about unifi cation, but one thing to remember
is that division of the Korean peninsula is a historical aberration. That when the history of
this is written, it will be remembered as a 60- or 70- year period when South Korea grew
dramatically and became a liberal democracy and a beacon of advanced industrial society
in this part of the world in East Asia. It will be remembered as that, but it will also be
remembered as a very aberrant period in Korean history because the actual history of
Korea is one of a unifi ed nation.
The second is a po liti cal point. It was mentioned in some of the panels that when we
think about unifi cation po liti cally we should not think about it as being an extreme ideo-
logical point. Questions of unifi cation and of North Korean human rights have always been
pushed to the far right end of the spectrum. President Park’s speech and today’s discussion
show that it isn’t something that is solely the preoccupation of one par tic u lar part of the
ideological spectrum. It is increasingly moving much more toward the middle ground of
our discussions on policy and politics.
Third, this is in part inspired by something Ambassador Roy said, when we think about
unifi cation and security, we do not want the solution to become the problem. In other
words, if we think of unifi cation as the solution, we have to work extra hard to ensure
that the unintended consequences, the negative externalities, do not come back to create
new problems. We don’t want eighteenth- century balance of power politics to come to East
Asia after unifi cation. We want twenty- fi rst- century security community to be the way we
think about Asia.
Fourth, on economics, we had a lot of discussion about profi t, margins, and all the
economics that come with unifi cation. That is a very important part of thinking about
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 63
unifi cation, but it’s not just about profi t. It’s also about overall growth and overall reduction
of poverty. We know that the South Korean economy will take a hit when unifi cation
comes. In the longer- term perspective, growth on the peninsula will accelerate dramati-
cally. This was Marcus Noland’s point from the fi rst session. Most importantly, poverty
reduction of the entire Korean peninsula will be dramatic.
That leads to the fi fth and last point. Although we talk about unifi cation as a bonanza
for Americans, South Koreans, Japa nese, Chinese, or others, the biggest winner from reuni-
fi cation is going to be the North Korean people. They will be the biggest winners, and that
needs to be communicated and conveyed to them.
Let me thank our organizers and sponsors for this event, the National Research Council
for Economics, Humanities, and Social Sciences, the Korea Institute for International
Economic Policy, the Korea Institute for National Unifi cation, and the Korea Institute for
Industrial Economics and Trade. I want to especially thank two of our members of the
Korean delegation who did not join us onstage, but did participate: Dr. Chun Seongwhun
from the Blue House, as well as the president of the Korean Po liti cal Science Association Dr.
Kim Young Jae.
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64 |
0900 INTRODUCTORY AND WELCOMING REMARKS
Dr. Victor Cha, CSIS
Dr. Kang Eun Bong, NRCS
0915 CONGRATULATORY REMARKS
His Excellency Ambassador Ahn Ho- Young, Republic of Korea Ambassador to the United States
SESSION ONE: ECONOMICS OF
KOREAN UNIFICATION
0925 PANEL A: THE ECONOMIC SYNERGY EFFECT OF UNIFICATION OF
THE KOREAN PENINSULA
Moderator: Dr. Victor Cha, CSIS
Presenters: Dr. Marcus Noland, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Dr. Kim Dongsoo, KIET
Discussants: Dr. Jeong Hyung- Gon, KIEP
Mr. Matthew Goodman, CSIS
1035 COFFEE BREAK
1045 PANEL B: OPENING FOR BUSINESS: FOREIGN INVESTMENT AFTER
UNIFICATION
Moderator: Dr. Victor Cha, CSIS
Presenters: Mr. Thomas Byrne, Moody’s Investors Ser vice
Mr. William Brown, ODNI/NIM- East Asia
Discussants: Dr. Sue Mi Terry, East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Dr. Park Hyeong- Jung, KINU
1200 LUNCHEON ADDRESS
Mr. Sydney Seiler, Special Envoy for Six- Party Talks, U.S. Department of State
Appendix 1: Conference Agenda
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 65
SESSION TWO: KOREAN UNIFICATION AND
THE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
1300 PANEL C: THE NORTHEAST ASIAN PERSPECTIVE
Moderator: Dr. Victor Cha, CSIS
Presenters: Dr. Michael Green, CSIS
Dr. Park Ihn- hwi, Ewha Womans University
Discussants: Mr. Christopher Johnson, CSIS
Mr. Bruce Klingner, Heritage Foundation
1430 PANEL D: GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES
Moderator: Dr. Victor Cha, CSIS
Presenters: Dr. Kurt Campbell, The Asia Group
Dr. Kim Jaechun, Sogang University
Discussants: Ambassador Stapleton Roy, Wilson Center
Dr. Kim Yung Ho, Sungshin Women’s University
1545 CLOSING REMARKS
Dr. Victor Cha, CSIS
1600 ADJOURNMENT
66 |
David Brunnstrom, Thomson Reuters
Byunggun Chae, JoongAng Ilbo/JTBC
Jae- soon Chang, Yonhap News
Weihua Chen, China Daily
Hans Cho, JoongAng Ilbo/JTBC
Xianyang Han Guangming, Daily Washington Bureau
Toshiyuki Hayakawa, Sekai Nippo
Tomoko Horie, Nippon TV
Takashi Hotta, TV Asahi
Tomotaro Inoue, Kyodo News
Bo Ra Joo, JoonAng Ilbo/JTBC
Yangwoo Kang, Munhwa Broadcasting Corporation (MBC)
Lauren Kim, Yonhap News
Mikyung Kim, Seoul Shinmun Daily
Sejin Kim, Yonhap News Agency
William Kim, Voice of America
Kang Duk Lee, Korean Broadcasting System (KBS)
Seung Han Lee, Dong- A Ilbo
Sang Ki Lim, MBC
Appendix 2: Media Participants
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 67
Ping Liu, China Youth Daily
Yoshihiro Makino, The Asahi Shimbun
Michael Marshall, United Press International
Toshiyuki Matsuyama, Fuji TV
Michiko Morimoto, Yonhap News
Michael Mosettig, PBS Online NewsHour
Genie Nguyen, Voice of Viet nam ese Americans
Edward Park, Seoul Broadcasting System (SBS)
Jung Woo Park, Radio Free Asia
Hyodong Roh, Yonhap News
Min Sun Shim, Seoul Broadcasting System (SBS)
Jemin Son, Kyunghyang Daily
So Taira, Tokyo Broadcasting System
Miho Takashima, Tokyo Broadcasting System
Elliot Waldman, Tokyo Broadcasting System
Kitty Wang, New Tang Dynasty Tele vi sion
Son Taek Wang, YTN
Wei Wu, New Tang Dynasty Tele vi sion
Xiaoyang Xia, Wen Hui Daily
Yifan Xu, China Press
Tatsuya Yamashita, TV Asahi
Sungwon Yang, Radio Free Asia
Jumpei Yoshioka, Nippon Hoso Kyokai (NHK)
James Yu, KBS
416-1 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:56:27 ID:c0925434e [sage]
68 |
INTRODUCTORY AND WELCOMING REMARKS
Dr. Victor Cha, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Victor Cha joined CSIS in May 2009 as a se nior adviser and the inaugural holder of the
Korea Chair. He is also director of Asian studies and holds the D. S. Song- KF Chair in the
Department of Government and School of Foreign Ser vice at Georgetown University. From
2004 to 2007, he served as director for Asian affairs at the White House on the National
Security Council, where he was responsible primarily for Japan, the Korean peninsula,
Australia/New Zealand, and Pacifi c Island nation affairs. Dr. Cha was also the deputy head
of delegation for the United States at the Six- Party Talks in Beijing and received two Out-
standing Ser vice Commendations during his tenure at the NSC. He is a former John M. Olin
National Security Fellow at Harvard University, a two- time Fulbright Scholar, and a
Hoover National Fellow, CISAC Fellow, and William J. Perry Fellow at Stanford University.
He holds a BA, an MIA, and a PhD from Columbia University, as well as an MA from the
University of Oxford.
Dr. Kang Eun Bong, National Research Council for Economics,
Humanities, and Social Sciences
Kang Eun Bong is the secretary- general of the National Research Council for Economics,
Humanities, and Social Sciences (NRCS), the governing institution of the 23 national think
tanks of Korea. Prior to joining the NRCS in March 2014, he worked in the Korean govern-
ment for 31 years. He served as the deputy minister for regulatory reform, deputy minister
for government policy analysis and evaluation, deputy minister for the Jeju Special Prov-
ince Policy of the prime minister’s offi ce. He also served as deputy secretary for public
relations of the Offi ce of the President. He graduated from Seoul National University (SNU),
and received master’s degrees from SNU and University of California at Berkeley, United
States. He obtained a doctorate degree from Dong- a University in Korea.
CONGRATULATORY REMARKS
His Excellency Ambassador Ahn Ho- Young, Republic of Korea Ambassador
to the United States
Ambassador Ahn Ho- Young is Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the
Republic of Korea to the United States of America. Ambassador Ahn joined the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs in 1978 and has held a number of postings throughout his career, most
recently as fi rst vice minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Prior to this, Ambassador Ahn served as Korea’s ambassador to Belgium and as head of
Appendix 3: Participant Biographies
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 69
the Korean mission to the Eu ro pean Union. He was appointed deputy minister for trade at
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MOFAT) from 2008 to 2011, during which time
he also was the president’s Sherpa for the G-20 and G8 outreach meetings. Ambassador Ahn
also has served as director general of the Multilateral Trade Bureau and as director of the
International Trade Law Division in the Offi ce of the Minister for Trade. He was director-
general of the Economic Cooperation Bureau at the Ministry of Finance and Economy from
2004 to 2006, and also taught as an adjunct professor of law and diplomacy at Korea Univer-
sity from 2006 to 2008. Ambassador Ahn is a graduate of Seoul National University and the
Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Ser vice at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.
Session One: Economics of Korean Unifi cation
PANEL A: THE ECONOMIC SYNERGY EFFECT OF UNIFICATION OF
THE KOREAN PENINSULA
416-2 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:56:27 ID:c0925434e [sage]
Dr. Marcus Noland, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Marcus Noland is executive vice president and director of studies at the Peterson Institute
for International Economics and a se nior fellow at the East- West Center. He was a se nior
economist at the Council of Economic Advisers in the Executive Offi ce of the President of
the United States, and has held research or teaching positions at Yale University, the Johns
Hopkins University, the University of Southern California, Tokyo University, Saitama
University (now the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies), the University of Ghana,
and the Korea Development Institute. He has authored, coauthored, or edited numerous
books, including Famine in North Korea: Markets, Aid, and Reform and Witness to Transfor-
mation: Refugee Insights into North Korea (both coauthored with Stephan Haggard). His
book Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas won the prestigious Ohira
Memorial Prize. His latest book, coauthored with Cullen Hendix, is Confronting the Curse:
The Economics and Geopolitics of Natural Resource Governance.
Dr. Kim Dongsoo, Korean Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade
Dongsoo Kim has been working as the director of the Research Planning and Coordination
Division in the Korean Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET) since June 2013.
After joining KIET in 2007, he focused on research for regional development in Korea in
the Regional Development Center. He conducted various researches such as migration,
comparative analysis between cities, statistical analysis, regional development policies,
because of the sensitive social issue of regional disparity in Korea. He also has served as the
head of regional police team since 2011, until he became a director. He earned a BS degree in
mathematics from Yonsei University in Korea and an MBA degree from the George Wash-
ington University. Then he expanded his academic career with economics and got an MA
degree from Yale University. Finally, he received a PhD degree from the Economics Depart-
ment of the George Washington University with the major of urban and regional economics.
Dr. Jeong Hyung- Gon, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy
Hyung- Gon Jeong is vice president of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy
(KIEP). He graduated from the University of Bonn and holds a PhD in economics from the
417 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:57:27 ID:c0925434e [sage]
70 | VICTOR CHA
University of Cologne. He was a Fulbright Visiting scholar at the Johns Hopkins University,
School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). He also serves as con sul tant at the Devel-
opment Advisory Committee, Incheon Free Economic Zone; Offi ce of Minister for Special
Affairs; the Advisory Committee of Free Economic Zone, Ministry Knowledge Economy. He
is also a member of the standing committee at the National Unifi cation Advisory Council,
member of the Evaluation Board of a Proposed Site for Free Economic Zone, Ministry of
Trade, Industry & Energy, and member of the Evaluation Committee at the Ministry of
Unifi cation. He has participated in the Korea- China- Japan Joint Research Project (2011?2012)
as a research fellow, conducting joint research projects with IDE- JETRO from Japan and
DRC from China. He also served as con sul tant of special economic zones to the governments
of Vietnam, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan as a part of Korean knowledge- sharing projects.
Before joining KIEP, Dr. Jeong was director general at the Offi ce of Strategy Planning,
National Security Council (NSC), the Blue House, from June 2003 to December 2005.
Mr. Matthew Goodman, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Matthew Goodman holds the William E. Simon Chair in Po liti cal Economy at the Center
for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The Simon Chair examines current issues in
international economic policy, with a par tic u lar focus on the Asia Pacifi c. Previously,
Goodman was White House coordinator for Asia- Pacifi c Economic Cooperation (APEC) and
the East Asia Summit (EAS). He also served as director for international economics on the
National Security Council staff and was responsible for the G-20, G-8, and other interna-
tional forums. Prior to joining the White House, Goodman was se nior adviser to the under-
secretary for economic, energy, and agricultural affairs at the U.S. Department of State.
Before joining the Obama administration in August 2009, he worked for fi ve years at Albright
Stonebridge Group, a global business advisory fi rm based in Washington, D.C., where he
was managing director in charge of the fi rm’s Asia practice. From 2002 to 2004, he served
at the White House as director for Asian economic affairs on the staff of the National
Security Council. Mr. Goodman holds an MA in international relations from the Johns
Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a BS in economics from the London
School of Economics and Po liti cal Science.
Session One: Economics of Korean Unifi cation
PANEL B: OPENING FOR BUSINESS: FOREIGN INVESTMENT
AFTER UNIFICATION
Mr. Thomas Byrne, Moody’s Investors Ser vice
Tom Byrne (se nior vice president/manager) is Moody’s spokesperson and director of analy-
sis for the Sovereign Risk Group in the Asia- Pacifi c and Middle East regions. In addition, he
is the lead sovereign analyst for China, Japan, and Korea. Tom was also the codirector of
the 2013 update of the Moody’s Sovereign Bond Methodology, and is a frequent contributor
to Moody’s research publications. Prior to working at Moody’s, he worked in the Institute
of International Finance in Washington, D.C., where for much of his tenure he was se nior
economist in the Asia- Pacifi c Department, after having begun his career as an economist
in the Africa? Middle East Department. Tom has an MA degree in international relations
418 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:58:17 ID:c0925434e [sage]
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 71
with an emphasis on economics from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International
Studies, after having served in South Korea as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer.
Mr. William Brown, ODNI/NIM- East Asia
William Brown is se nior adviser to the national intelligence manager for East Asia and the
Koreas in the Offi ce of the Director of National Intelligence. Mr. Brown’s remarks, herein,
are his own and do not necessarily refl ect those of the director of national intelligence or
the U.S. government.
Dr. Sue Mi Terry, East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Sue Mi Terry is a se nior research scholar at the Columbia University Weatherhead East
Asian Institute, a position she has held since 2011. Her research focuses on East Asia, par-
ticularly Northeast Asia security and U.S.? Northeast Asia Relations, North Korea’s evolving
nuclear strategy and potential for instability, and the politics and foreign policy of South
Korea. She is also the founder of Peninsula Strategies, Inc., an advisory fi rm specializing
in Korean issues with both government and corporate clients. In 2010?2011, she served as
the national intelligence fellow in the David Rocke fel ler Studies Program at the Council
on Foreign Relations in New York. Before coming to New York, Dr. Terry served as a career
intelligence offi cer. She served as deputy national intelligence offi cer for East Asia at the
National Intelligence Council (2009 to 2010) in the Offi ce of the Director of National Intelli-
gence. She also served as the director for Korea, Japan, and Oceanic Affairs at the National
Security Council (2008 to 2009) during the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administra-
tions. Earlier in her career, she served as a se nior analyst on Korean issues at the Director-
ate of Intelligence, the Central Intelligence Agency (2001?2008). Dr. Terry holds a PhD in
international relations (2001) and a master of arts in international law and diplomacy (1998)
from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University. She also holds a bachelor
of arts in po liti cal science from New York University (1993).
Dr. Park Hyeong- Jung, Korea Institute for National Unifi cation
Park, Hyeong- Jung is a se nior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unifi cation
(KINU). His main research covers the politics and economy of North Korea, inter- Korean
relations, the East Asia policy of the United States, comparative dictatorships, and devel-
opment assistance. He received his PhD in po liti cal science from Philipps University in
Marburg, Germany. He has been active as a policy adviser to the government as well as
humanitarian and human rights NGOs and as a commentator for Korean and foreign media.
He was an Eisenhower Fellow in 2002 and a visiting fellow at the Center for East Asia Policy
Studies at Brookings from 2006 to 2007. He has written a number of books and research
and policy papers in Korean and En glish. His recent articles in En glish include “North
Korea’s New Doctrine of Nuclear Strategy and South Korea Policy since 2012” (2014); “The
Demotion of Choe Ryong Hae” (2014); “The Purge of Jang Song- taek and the Competition for
Regency during the Power Succession” (2013); “The Ups and Downs of the Military’s Infl u-
ence during the Period of Kim Jong- un’s Power Consolidation” (2013); “Fiscal Fragmenta-
tion and Economic Changes in North Korea” (2013).
419 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 04:59:05 ID:c0925434e [sage]
72 | VICTOR CHA
LUNCHEON ADDRESS
Mr. Sydney Seiler, Special Envoy for Six- Party Talks, U.S. Department of State
Sydney Seiler is the U.S. Department of State special envoy for the Six- Party Talks. Previ-
ously, he served as director for Korea in the White House National Security Council from
May 2011 August 2014. He is considered the most authoritative expert on po liti cal, cultural,
and social issues on both Koreas in the Obama administration. For the past 30 years, he
has worked in multiple intelligence disciplines, including the National Security Agency,
the Directorate of Intelligence and Directorate of Operations in the Central Intelligence
Agency, and the Foreign Broadcast Information Ser vice. He spent 12 of those years in South
Korea. He previously served as deputy director of national intelligence manager for North
Korea, having joined the offi ce when it was established in January 2006. Prior to the DNI,
he served with the National Clandestine Ser vice of the CIA. He is the author of the book
Kim Il Song 1941?1948: The Creation of a Legend, the Building of a Regime. He received his
MA in Korean studies from Yonsei University’s Graduate School of International Studies.
Mr. Seiler is a graduate of the Korean- language programs of the Defense Language Institute
and Yonsei University. Mr. Seiler’s remarks, herein, are an edited transcript, published
with permission.
Session Two: Korean Unifi cation and
the Security Environment
PANEL C: THE NORTHEAST ASIAN PERSPECTIVE
Dr. Michael Green, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Michael Green is se nior vice president for Asia and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies and an associate professor at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign
Ser vice at Georgetown University. He served on the staff of the National Security Council
from 2001 to 2005, fi rst as the director for Asian Affairs and then as the special assistant to
the president for national security affairs and se nior director for Asia. Before joining the
NSC staff, he was the se nior fellow for East Asian security at the Council on Foreign Rela-
tions, the director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center and the Foreign Policy Institute, and
an assistant professor at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns
Hopkins University, a research staff member at the Institute for Defense Analyses, and the
se nior adviser on Asia in the Offi ce of the Secretary of Defense. He also worked in Japan on
the staff of a member of the National Diet. He received his MA and PhD from SAIS and did
additional graduate and postgraduate research at Tokyo University and the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology. He received his BA in history from Kenyon College.
Dr. Park Ihn- hwi, Ewha Womans University
Park Ihn- hwi is a professor of the division of international studies at Ewha Womans Univer-
sity. Professor Park’s area of expertise includes international security, U.S. foreign policy,
and Northeast Asian international relations. He is currently a member of the Advisory
Committee of the Ministry of Unifi cation, and he holds the same position in the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of National Defense. He was a visiting scholar at the Jackson
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KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 73
School of International Studies of the University of Washington in 2010. He also has been a
research fellow for Korea- U.S. Exchange Council (2001?2004). Professor Park has written
many articles in leading journals, including International Journal of Korean Unifi cation Stud-
ies, Korea Journal of Defense Analysis, and Global Economic Review, among others. He received
his PhD in the area of international politics from Northwestern University in 1999.
Mr. Christopher Johnson, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Christopher Johnson is a se nior adviser and holds the Freeman Chair in China Studies at CSIS.
An accomplished Asian affairs specialist, Mr. Johnson spent nearly two de cades serving in
the U.S. government’s intelligence and foreign affairs communities and has extensive
experience analyzing and working in Asia on a diverse set of country- specifi c and transna-
tional issues. Mr. Johnson worked as a se nior China analyst at the Central Intelligence
Agency, where he played a key role in the analytic support to policymakers during the 1996
Taiwan Strait missile crisis, the 1999 accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade,
the downing of a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft on Hainan Island in 2001, and the SARS
epidemic in 2003. Mr. Johnson served as an intelligence liaison to two secretaries of state
and their deputies on worldwide security issues and in 2011 was awarded the U.S. Depart-
ment of State’s Superior Honor Award for outstanding support to the secretary and her
se nior staff. He also served abroad in a fi eld site in Southeast Asia. Mr. Johnson graduated
summa cum laude with bachelor’s degrees in history and po liti cal science from the Univer-
sity of California at San Diego (1994) and received his MA in security policy studies from
the George Washington University (1996).
Mr. Bruce Klingner, Heritage Foundation
Bruce Klingner is the se nior research fellow for Northeast Asia in the Heritage Foundation’s
Asian Studies Center. Klingner’s analysis and writing about North Korea, South Korea,
Japan, and related issues are informed by his 20 years working at the Central Intelligence
Agency and the Defense Intelligence Agency. From 1996 to 2001, Klingner was the CIA’s
deputy division chief for Korea, responsible for the analysis of po liti cal, military, economic,
and leadership issues for the president of the United States and other se nior U.S. policymak-
ers. In 1993?1994, he was the chief of CIA’s Korea branch, which analyzed military develop-
ments during a nuclear crisis with North Korea. Klingner, who joined Heritage in 2007, has
testifi ed before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the Senate Select Committee on
Intelligence, and the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. He is a frequent
commentator in U.S. and foreign media, including tele vi sion news programs for ABC, CBS,
Fox, CNN, MSNBC, BBC, Bloomberg, and C- Span. His articles and commentary have appeared
in major American publications such as The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall
Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, USA Today, Christian Science Monitor, Newsweek, and
Fortune, as well as in overseas outlets such as Financial Times, Chosun Ilbo, Joongang Ilbo,
Kyodo News, and Nikkei Weekly. Klingner is a distinguished graduate of the National War
College, where he received a master’s degree in national security strategy in 2002. He also
holds a master’s degree in strategic intelligence from the Defense Intelligence College and
a bachelor’s degree in po liti cal science from Middlebury College in Vermont. He is active in
Korean martial arts, attaining third- degree black belt in taekwondo and fi rst- degree black
belt in hapkido and teuk kong moo sool.
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74 | VICTOR CHA
Session Two: Korean Unifi cation and
the Security Environment
PANEL D: GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES
Dr. Kurt Campbell, The Asia Group
Dr. Kurt Campbell is the founding partner, chairman, and chief executive offi cer of The
Asia Group. From 2009 to 2013, he served as the assistant secretary of state for East Asian
and Pacifi c Affairs, where he is widely credited as being a key architect of the “pivot to Asia.”
Previously, Dr. Campbell was the CEO and cofounder of the Center for a New American
Security (CNAS) and concurrently served as the director of the Aspen Strategy Group and
chairman of the editorial board of the Washington Quarterly. He was the se nior vice presi-
dent, director of the International Security Program, and Henry A. Kissinger Chair at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies. Dr. Campbell also served as the associate
professor of public policy and international relations at the John F. Kennedy School of
Government and assistant director of the Center for Science and International Affairs at
Harvard University. He previously served in several capacities in government, including
as deputy assistant secretary of the White House, and White House fellow at the Depart-
ment of the Trea sury. He was concurrently an offi cer in the U.S. Navy Reserves, serving
on surface ships, on the Joint Chiefs of Staff and in the Chief of Naval Operations Special
Strategic Advisory Unit. Dr. Campbell received his BA from the University of California,
San Diego, a certifi cate in music and po liti cal philosophy from the University of Erevan in
Soviet Armenia, and his PhD in international relations from Brasenose College at Oxford
University, where he was a Distinguished Marshall Scholar.
Dr. Kim Jaechun, Sogang University
Jaechun Kim is a po liti cal scientist trained at Yale University (MA in international relations;
MPhil in po liti cal science; PhD in po liti cal science). Before joining the Graduate School of
International Studies (GSIS) at Sogang University, he worked for Yale University as a lecturer
for the Department of Po liti cal Science and Yale Center for the International and Area Studies
(YCIAS). Currently he is the director of Sogang University’s Institute of International and
Area Studies (IIAS). He also served as the dean of Sogang GSIS (2010?2013). Earlier in his
career, he had worked for the National Assembly of Korea as legislative assistant and the
Bankers Trust Company as credit analyst. He has been advising the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs of Korea as a member of the policy advisory board since 2006. His research interests
include international relations theory, U.S. foreign policy making, international security
and peace, and intelligence policy. His recent publications deal with the ROK- U.S. security
alliance, Korea’s role in global governance, the impact of Korean War on the U.S. military
policy, and so on. At Sogang, he offers courses on international relations, international
security and peace, American politics and American foreign policy, social science research
methodology, and so on.
Ambassador Stapleton Roy, Wilson Center
Ambassador J. Stapleton Roy is a Distinguished Scholar and Founding Director Emeritus of
the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Woodrow Wilson International
421-2 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/03(水) 05:00:59 ID:c0925434e [sage]
KOREAN UNIFICATION IN A NEW ERA | 75
Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C. He was born in China and spent much of his youth
there during the upheavals of World War and the communist revolution, where he watched
the battle for Shanghai from the roof of the Shanghai American School. He joined the U.S.
Foreign Ser vice immediately after graduating from Prince ton in 1956, retiring 45 years
later with the rank of Career Ambassador, the highest in the ser vice. In 1978 he participated
in the secret negotiations that led to the establishment of U.S.- PRC diplomatic relations.
During a career focused on East Asia and the Soviet Union, his ambassadorial assign-
ments included Singapore, China, and Indonesia. His fi nal post with the State Department
was as assistant secretary for intelligence and research. On retirement he joined Kissinger
Associates, Inc., a strategic consulting fi rm, before joining the Woodrow Wilson Interna-
tional Center for Scholars in September 2008 to head the newly created Kissinger Institute.
In 2001 he received Prince ton University’s Woodrow Wilson Award for Distinguished
Public Ser vice.
Dr. Kim Yung Ho, Sungshin Women’s University
Yung Ho Kim is a professor, Department of Po liti cal Science and Foreign Affairs, Sungshin
Women’s University in Seoul, Korea. He served as the secretary to the president for unifi ca-
tion, Offi ce of the President of the Republic of Korea (2011?2012), and ambassador for human
rights, the Republic of Korea (2012?2013). He was the director of the Sungshin Education
Program for Free Citizen (2007?2009), which was designed to help North Korean refugee
college students to adjust themselves to South Korean society. He worked as the director for
the Center for East Asian Studies of Sungshin Women’s University, and as the dean of aca-
demic and external affairs at Sungshin Women’s University. He graduated from the Depart-
ment of Diplomacy, Seoul National University, and received his PhD from the Department of
Government and Foreign Affairs, University of Virginia (1996). He has published books in
Korean entitled Korea and International Politics (2012) and The Origins and Development of the
Korean War (2006). He has also published articles on China’s new type of great power rela-
tionship, U.S. policy to pivot to Asia, and the Northeast Asian version of the Helsinki pro cess.
Observers
Cheon Seongwhun, Republic of Korea Offi ce of National Security
Cheon Seongwhun is secretary to the president for security strategy, Offi ce of National
Security, the ROK. Before joining the Offi ce of National Security, he was the president of the
Korea Institute for National Unifi cation (KINU). In 2013, he was an expert member of the
Transition Team of the 18th President, the ROK. Previously, he was a se nior research fellow
and the director of the Center for North Korean Studies at the KINU, Seoul, South Korea. He
had been an editorial con sul tant for Radio Free Asia (RFA) from October 2000 to August 2013.
He was also a member of policy advisory committees for the Ministry of National Defense,
the Ministry of Unifi cation, and crisis management at the Offi ce of the President. He is the
recipient of Commendation of President of the Republic of Korea in 2003 and awards for
excellent research from the Korea Research Council for Humanities & Social Sciences in
2001, 2002, and 2003. Dr. Cheon graduated from the Department of Industrial Engineering
at the Korea University and received his PhD in Management Sciences from the University
of Waterloo, Canada.
434 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/04(木) 21:05:05 ID:92a5d52f2 [sage]
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464 名前: ころっけさん :2014/12/15(月) 17:31:26 ID:5217529ab
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