Egyptian pound unchanged on official, parallel markets
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ttp://english.ahram.org.eg/News/126164.aspx @ahramonlineさんから
Reuters , Thursday 26 Mar 2015
Egypt's central bank kept the pound steady at 7.53 pounds to the dollar at a foreign exchange auction on Thursday, and the domestic currency was also stable on the black market.
The central bank has kept the official exchange rate steady for more than a month after letting the pound weaken in an attempt to wipe out black-market trading.
The bank said it offered $40 million at auction and sold $38.7 million at a cut-off price of 7.5301 pounds per dollar, unchanged from its last auction on Wednesday.
Black-market traders said volumes have fallen dramatically since the central bank's move against them and since it imposed a cap in February on the amount of dollars that can be deposited in banks.
The limit discourages use of the black market because those who exchange dollars outside official channels are deprived of a place to keep their funds.
Two traders said the dollar was selling for 7.65 pounds on the black market on Thursday, the same as the rate quoted on Wednesday.
The rates at which banks are allowed to trade dollars are determined by the results of official auctions, giving the central bank effective control over exchange rates.
（ブルームバーグ）：19世紀の英ビクトリア朝時代に植民地経済を支えたエジプト産綿花は、世界最高品質の下着と衣料の代表的な素材となった。それから２世紀を経た今も米「カリスマ主婦」マーサ・スチュワート氏やクリスチャン・ディオールなどのブランドは、エジプト産綿花の柔らかさと耐久性を高く評価している。
ところが、エジプトでは状況は異なる。ピラミッドと同様にエジプトのアイデンティティーの一部である綿花の栽培を諦める農家が増えている。政府の支援がなければ綿花栽培は採算が取れず、補助金支給は打ち切られつつあるからだ。エジプトは中東で最も多くの財政赤字を抱える国の一つだ。米農務省によれば、綿花生産は来シーズンに35％減少し過去最低となる可能性が高い。
国際綿花諮問委員会（ワシントン）の貿易分析担当ディレクター、アンドレイ・ギトチャーンツ氏は「エジプト産綿花の品質はユニークだ。生産が減少すれば他の生産国では代替生産できないと思う」と指摘する。
繊維メーカーが割安で低品質のアジア産綿花やポリエステルなどの素材に移行する中、エジプト産綿花の生産は30年間にわたって減少している。高品質綿花の需要が世界市場で占める割合は３％に満たないため、エジプト政府は綿花向け補助金支給は妥当ではないと判断した。同国はパン向け需要の拡大に対応できるだけの小麦を栽培できず、世界最大の小麦輸入国となっている。
原題：Egyptian Cotton of U.K. Royalty, Dior Vanishing as Farm Aid Cut（抜粋）
Egypt's Central Bank let the Egyptian pound slip further Sunday at auction, in a continuance of a policy of controlled devaluation
Amal Mahmoud, Sunday 5 Jul 2015
The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) allowed the pound to weaken at its official currency auction Sunday, a move that could protect the country’s trade competitiveness and squeeze the parallel currency market, according to analysts.
The CBE sold $39.6 million at the cut-off rate of 7.73 per dollar to banks at its auction today, the second auction in July, sending the official rate to clients to 7.83 per dollar.
The CBE had let the pound depreciate Thursday to 7.6301 from 7.5301 — a rate at which it had held for five months.
Since December 2012, the CBE has managed a gradual devaluation of the pound through currency auctions to account for negative economic conditions in the country since the popular uprising in 2011.
The Egyptian pound (EGP) has lost to date nearly 32 percent of its value since 2011.
Yet, the domestic currency remains overvalued, three analysts who spoke to Ahram Online noted.
An overvalued/appreciating currency makes imports cheaper and exports more expensive, harming the competitiveness of the domestic producers and exporters.
Egypt's imports from the Eurozone and Turkey constitute nearly half of its total imports, Hany Genena, economist at Pharos Holding, told Ahram Online.
The Euro (EUR) and the Turkish lira (TRY), the currencies of these two trading partners, have depreciated due to quantitative easing and the Greek crisis in the Eurozone and political uncertainty in Turkey.
Along with an overvalued EGP, "The EGP has already appreciated 17 percent versus the EUR and TRY since mid-2014," Genena noted.
Egypt's merchandise imports rose by 14.7 percent, to $32.4 billion, while merchandise exports fell by seven percent to around $12.2 billion in the first half of financial year 2014/15, rendering a 33.6 percent rise in the trade deficit, according to CBE figures.
Another round of devaluation will "protect Egyptian producers — and the balance of payments — from severe competition," Genena added.
However, competitiveness gains from a weaker currency may be limited since "Export growth is declining due to energy disruptions, supply bottlenecks, lack of US dollars necessary to import production components, and regional instability," according to Hany Farahat, economist at CI Capital.
"The most likely and immediate benefit from devaluation is to encourage US dollar black market traders to offload their hoarded US dollar inventory to local banks, a needed step to increase dollar liquidity in the system," Farahat told Ahram Online.
The black market in currency had flourished in the past few years as a slump in tourism and investment since the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak in 2011 limited supply of foreign currency. This pushed the CBE to allow a gradual devaluation of the pound through regular FX auctions since December 2012, in addition to limiting cash deposits in US dollars in Egypt's banks to $10,000 per day and $50,000 per month.
Egypt's annual urban consumer inflation dropped to 11.4 percent in June from 13.1 percent in May, the official statistics agency CAPMAS said on Thursday.
Inflation spiked in Egypt after the government slashed energy subsidies in July 2014.
Egypt's central bank kept the Egyptian pound steady at LE7.73 per dollar at a foreign exchange auction on Tuesday after a depreciation earlier this month.
The pound was stronger at currency exchange bureaus.
The central bank said it had offered $40 million and sold $37.5 million at a cut-off price of LE7.7301 per dollar, unchanged from Thursday's rate. Sunday was a public holiday.
The central bank held the pound at LE7.5301 for the past five months until earlier this month, when it allowed it to weaken to LE7.6301. On July 5, the bank let it slide a further LE0.10.
Analysts say letting the pound weaken in a controlled way could boost exports and attract further investment, but it will also raise Egypt's large bill for imported fuel and food staples.
Egypt has sought to tame a once-thriving currency black market with measures such as a cap on dollar-denominated bank deposits.
Two traders at currency exchange bureaus said the pound was changing hands at LE7.85 per dollar on Tuesday, stronger than the rate of 7.875/88 quoted on Thursday, though one trader said it was still trading at LE7.88 on Tuesday.
The central bank gave banks permission in January to trade dollars up to LE0.10 more or less than the official rate, with an extra LE0.05 for currency exchange bureaus.
Egypt inflation slows in July as fuel prices remain stable
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ttp://english.ahram.org.eg/News/137550.aspx @ahramonlineさんから
The annual headline inflation rate in Egypt currently stands at 8.38 percent, a reduction from June’s rate of 11.39 percent, according to a Monday statement from the central bank.
Meanwhile, the year’s fuel prices remain stable.
In July of last year, a cut in fuel subsidies raised commodity prices by up to 78 percent, sending inflation to its highest monthly increase in six years.
The government started slashing its energy subsidies in July 2014 as part of its fiscal reform programme, which aims to reduce Egypt's ballooning budget deficit.
"Inflation rates should be moderate in the coming months. That’s because starting in July 2015, annual change in prices will be measured against last year’s inflation figures, which account for fuel prices hikes that took place in July of 2014," said Hany Farahat, senior economist at CI Capital.
This favorable base effect will continue as long as the government does not implement another round of subsidy cuts, Farahat said.
"Energy prices are expected to remain low as oil prices continue to be restrained by global oversupply, which will also be augmented by return of Iran oil exports later this year," he added.
"Oil and food prices are expected to stay low this year globally, which should have a favorable effect on imported inflation," Farahat said.
The FAO Food Price Index, which measures the monthly change in international prices of food commodities, has reached its lowest monthly value in six years in July 2015, according to the FAO Website.
Egypt's central bank will have more room to cut its key interest rates in the coming monetary policy committee meetings, especially with limited upside pressures on inflation.
Delaying the imposition of the much-anticipated value-added tax will also increase the chances of a policy rate cut this year, said Farahat, adding that he believes the tax will be imposed in the second half of the current fiscal year as the government finalises work on its legal structure.
Egypt's state budget for the current fiscal year, assuming that the VAT is imposed this year, will garner around LE32 billion.
