AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 30.1N 155.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 715 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA. RECENT ANI-
MATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE FLARE OF DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER EVIDENT IN A 100751Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS. THIS CIRCULA-
TION IS DEVELOPING IN A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, SUPPORTED BY A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ALOFT. PASSAGE OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, EXCEEDING 26 DEGREES CELCIUS, AND STRONG
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT HAVE ENABLED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 06 TO 12 HOURS AND SUPPORTED
EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE AND BURGEONING
FRONTAL FEATURES INDICATIVE OF MID-LATITUDE WAVE CYCLONE DEVEL-
OPMENT SUGGEST THAT THIS RAPIDLY-MOVING CYCLONE WILL NOT LIKELY
TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BECAUSE THIS DISTURBANCE IS
DEVELOPING AS A BAROCLINIC LOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
