生糸生産ランキング−中国、インド、タイ、サウスコリア、イラン。
****
Uganda silk production set for 2012
Sunday, 09 October 2011 20:56 Patrick Jaramogi
KAMPALA - Uganda is set to join the world's top producers of silk-worm once the 1,000 hectare Kisozi silk-rearing project starts production next year.
The Iran Agro Industrial Group initiated project will be producing close to 1,500 metric tones of Silk, similar to Iran, currently ranked fifth in silk production in the world. China tops the charts followed by India, Thailand and South Korea.
The USD$9million investment that is currently employing over 500 people will boost the silk product manufacturing plants in Iran.
"We have so far planted over 5,000 mulberry trees that are instrumental in silk rearing. We are using so far 1,000 hectares of the 14,000 hectare farm in Kisozi for silk rearing," said Mohammad Ali Mousavi, the Chairman Iran Uganda Establishments.
He told East African Business Week at the just concluded Uganda Manufacturers Association (UMA) International Trade fair at Lugogo that once production starts, Uganda will be exporting silk worth USD$200,000 (Shs560m) each year.
He said Iran decided to invest in Uganda due to the good weather and market opportunities.
"Rearing of silk in Iran is becoming so hard due to expensive land and space. Whereas we can produce silk seven times a year in Uganda, in Iran it is twice a year. That means we can produce more here," said Mousavi.
"We have the capacity of producing 30 bags of egg worms from just one hectare of land," explained Mousavi.
Silk, a natural protein fiber can be woven into textiles. The best-known type of silk is obtained from the cocoons of the larvae that feed on leaves of the mulberry tree.
The table data comes from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization's FAOSTAT database and has been displayed with the permission of FAO. The data was downloaded from FAOSTAT on 02/16/2012.
Rank Country Number (tonnes)
1 China 126,001
2 India 19,000
3 Viet Nam 7,367
4 Turkmenistan 4,500
5 Romania 2,100
6 Thailand 1,600
7 Brazil 1,300
8 Uzbekistan 1,200
9 Iran (Islamic Republic of) 900
10 Democratic People's Republic of Korea 350
11 Tajikistan 200
12 Indonesia 120
13 Japan 105
14 Turkey 50
15 Kyrgyzstan 50
16 Afghanistan 50
17 Cambodia 25
18 Spain 15
19 Italy 12
20 Lebanon 10
21 Greece 5
22 Bulgaria 5
23 Republic of Korea 3
24 Egypt 3
Silk fabric was first developed in ancient China and later spread around the world via the 'Silk Road' and became popular among super-rich or high society. Nowadays silk is an affordable luxury for the middle class in Europe and the USA, and continues to hold its own in Asia as traditional ceremonial wear.
Even though silk has a small percentage of the global textile market - less than 0.2% (the precise global value is difficult to assess, since reliable data on finished silk products is lacking in most importing countries) - its production base is spread over 60 countries in the world. While the major producers are in Asia (90% of mulberry production and almost 100% of non-mulberry silk), sericulture industries have been lately established in Brazil, Bulgaria, Egypt and Madagascar as well. Sericulture is labour-intensive. About 1 million workers are employed in the silk sector in China. Sericulture provides income for 700,000 households in India, and 20,000 weaving families in Thailand (FAO, 2009). China is the worlds single biggest producer and chief supplier of silk to the world markets. India is the worlds second largest producer. Ten per cent of world silk is produced altogether by Brazil, North Korea, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Vietnam. Sericulture can help keeping the rural population employed and to prevent migration to big cities and securing remunerative employment; it requires small investments while providing raw material for textile industries.
Supply and demand of raw silk
The five largest fresh cocoon producing countries are (in brackets average production of last 4 years in tonnes of per year is reported): China (500,000), India (126,000), Uzbekistan (20,200), Brazil (14,000) and Vietnam (13,000).
Countries with more than 300 tonnes of fresh cocoons per year are: Thailand, North and South Korea, Japan, Iran, Tajikistan, Pakistan and Indonesia. Altogether approximately 35 to 40 counties are involved in sericulture. World production of raw silk is an average of 80,000 tonnes per year, about 70% of which is produced in China.
Originally published in New Cloth Market, December 2011
Dollar hits 100 yen, stocks slip after rally
By Rodrigo Campos
NEW YORK | Thu May 9, 2013 5:35pm EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar broke through 100 yen on Thursday, its highest level against the currency in over four years, while stocks in major markets slipped from recent record levels.
Investors sold the low-yielding yen as support from central banks around the world continued to push cash into higher-yielding assets. U.S. stocks fell slightly after recent gains from a rally that had taken the S&P 500 index to record highs for five straight sessions.
The dollar got support from U.S. data showing first-time applications for unemployment insurance fell last week to the lowest level in more than five years.
"A stampede out of safety and brightening U.S. job prospects helped catapult the dollar over the key triple-digit threshold against the yen," Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions in Washington, said in a note.
The yen is on track for eight straight months of declines against the greenback, shedding more than 30 percent since its September high near 77. A major stimulus program by the Bank of Japan last month to revive the economy has helped prolong the yen's weakening trend.
U.S. stocks slipped but the recent uptrend remains intact, giving room for declines after the strong climb.
"This market is so stretched to the upside that if we get some little wiggle somewhere, I can easily see us getting back down to 1,580" on the S&P 500, said Stephen Massocca, managing director of Wedbush Equity Management LLC in San Francisco.
Pullbacks in U.S. equities have been short-lived and shallow even as traders have said the market could benefit from a correction. The expectation of continued accommodative monetary policy from central banks globally has sustained support for stocks.
At the close the Dow Jones industrial average finance/markets/index?symbol=us%21dji">.DJI fell 22.5 points or 0.15 percent, to 15,082.62, the S&P 500 .SPX lost 6.02 points or 0.37 percent, to 1,626.67 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped 4.1 points or 0.12 percent, to 3,409.17.
The Euro STOXX 50 .STOXX50E index dropped 0.4 percent, retreating from a near two-year high but finding support at an upward trendline from lows hit on April 18. The pan-European FTSEurofirst .FTEU3 closed flat to stay near five-year highs.
The MSCI world index .MIWD00000PUS, which tracks stocks in 45 countries, was down 0.7 percent after earlier hitting its highest level since June 2008.
1-2
The U.S. dollar .DXY rose against major currencies almost 1 percent and above its 14- and 50-day moving averages.
The yen closed the session down 1.6 percent at 100.59 per dollar.
The euro was down 0.8 percent at $1.3045 after earlier hitting a high of $1.3177.
The euro was pressured by slightly softer-than-expected demand at a Spanish debt auction, while Spanish government bond yields rose.
Brent crude edged up in volatile trade and U.S. crude settled slightly down, as investors weighed Middle East tensions against weak demand and high inventories.
U.S. oil fell 23 cents to settle at $96.39 a barrel and was down further in extended trading. Brent crude edged up 13 cents to settle at $104.47 per barrel and later dropped 9 cents to $104.25.
Brent has dipped from a one-month high of $105.94 touched on Tuesday after Israeli air strikes on Syria over the weekend stoked supply fears.
"There's a tug of war here; the demand is not going to be there, but the economy is slowly improving," said Mark Waggoner, president at Excel Futures in Bend, Oregon.
Saudi Arabia increased crude oil output by 160,000 barrels per day to 9.3 million bpd in April, industry sources said this week, adding to an already well-supplied global market.
Spanish bond yields rose on speculation Madrid may be planning another bond sale after borrowing costs fell at Thursday's auction of just over 4.5 billion euros of new debt.
The country's 10-year bond yields were 8 basis points higher at 4.195 percent, having moved away from the 2-1/2 year lows of 3.954 percent touched last Friday.
Prices for U.S. Treasuries were flat as investors balanced stronger-than-expected jobs data with expectations that riskier assets such as equities could see a correction soon.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield inched up to 1.811 percent, the highest in nearly a month. The U.S. 30-year bond traded down 5/32 to yield 2.994 percent from 2.987 percent late on Wednesday.
Gold prices fell after the U.S. jobs data, with dollar strength weakening the price further. Spot gold was down 1 percent to $1,456.69. The metal gained 1.4 percent in the previous session, its biggest one-day rise in two weeks.
(Additional reporting by Angela Moon, Julie Haviv, Anna Louie Sussman and Ellen Freilich; Editing by Dan Grebler and Kenneth Barry)
2-2
ばら色に描くアナリスト。その裏に潜む危険。輸入品や石油や光熱費や消費税の値上がり。貧富の差の拡大。アベノミクスは庶民の敵なのか。日本経済は全く予断を許さない。
*****
Japan's first-quarter growth spurt shows early benefits of Abe's policy gamble
By Tetsushi Kajimoto and Kaori Kaneko
TOKYO | Thu May 16, 2013 1:38am EDT
(Reuters) - Japan's economy expanded at a rapid clip at the start of the year, the first hard evidence that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's sweeping stimulus is beginning to rouse consumers and businesses into action even as risks loomed in the horizon.
Corporate investment, seen as an essential ingredient of a sustained recovery, fell for the fifth consecutive quarter though analysts expect improved business sentiment will eventually translate into more spending.
Gross domestic product rose 0.9 percent from the previous quarter, against the median forecast of a 0.7 percent rise in a Reuters poll of 24 analysts.
That translated into an annualized 3.5 percent growth, the fastest in a year, and topped a 1 percent rise in the fourth quarter, cementing a turnaround from six months of contraction in 2012.
It also outpaced U.S. growth in the same period for the second straight quarter. The last time Japan's growth trumped that of the world's biggest economy was in the first quarter of 2012.
"Personal consumption was really strong and exports did better than expected. Stock gains and expectations for higher salaries are driving consumption now," said Hiroaki Muto, senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. in Tokyo.
The Cabinet Office data -- which covers the first full quarter since Abe's return to power in late December -- is viewed as the first comprehensive report card on his plan to revive the world's third-largest economy.
The solid readings validate Abe's "three-arrow" strategy to break a deflationary cycle, and should help him retain high support ahead of an election for the upper house of parliament in July. Victory would give his Liberal Democrat Party control of both houses of parliament.
The first quarter gain mainly reflects the psychological effects of improved expectations boosting domestic demand as households responded to the wealth-creating effects of a soaring stock market.
Abe is hoping to jolt the economy out of its two-decade long slumber with his "Abenomics" policy mix of unprecedented monetary stimulus, extra budget spending and promised pro-growth policies, and analysts expect those efforts to pay off in months ahead.
Sumitomo Mitsui's Muto said that despite a slow recovery in capital expenditure the economy should maintain its momentum.
"The GDP data would suggest that things are going well for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe heading into the upper house election."
The key to more lasting improvement will be whether the benefits reaped by exporters from the yen's rapid retreat will filter through to a broader economy, kicking off a virtuous cycle of more jobs, higher wages, profits and investment.
This is crucial if Abe's gamble is to pay dividends, with critics questioning the Bank of Japan's plan to flood the economy with money to the tune of $1.4 trillion in two years.
The BOJ's plan to double its government debt holdings has sent the yen sharply lower against the dollar and boosted share prices by 70 percent since last November, as Tokyo banks on Japan's export-reliant economy kicking into high gear on the back of a cheap currency.
Economists say companies, still cautious about their future, should start spending more in the current quarter.
"There is certain demand for capex among companies as exports are expected to recover, some firms need to update their facilities and there will be positive effect from the government's extra budget. I think capital spending will rise in April-June," said Yuichi Kodama, chief economist at Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance.
1-2
Capital spending fell 0.7 percent in the quarter, defying expectations of a 0.7 percent increase, weighing a Tokyo stock market finance/markets/index?symbol=jp%21n225">.N225 that was initially buoyed by gains on Wall Street and a weaker yen.
Investors will closely watch data for core machinery orders due to be released on Friday and expected to show a 2.8 percent increase in March, as well as companies' forecasts for the following quarter.
Private consumption, which accounts for roughly 60 percent of the economy, rose 0.9 percent as expected and was up for a second consecutive quarter, reflecting the better consumer mood helped in part by a buoyant stock market.
Exports, helped by the yen's retreat to 4-1/2-year lows against the dollar, beat expectations, making a 0.4 percent net contribution to GDP, despite higher import costs caused by a weaker currency.
Economics Minister Akira Amari said the GDP data showed the economy appears to be developing favorable conditions for a planned sales tax hike from April 2014, although a final decision will be made after second quarter data, due in August.
"We got off to a good start," Amari told reporters. "We'd like to develop conditions ... towards autumn."
RISKS
There are still some risks to the favorable scenario painted by the latest data.
Japan's aging and shrinking population poses a challenge to Abe's yet-to-be articulated plans to squeeze more growth out of the mature, highly developed economy.
Consumer spending could also suffer from rising costs of energy and imported goods unless the summer round of bonuses boosts incomes enough to make up for a squeeze in disposable incomes.
Another source of concern is an uncertain global outlook, underlined recently by a string of weak data from the United States and China, Japan's two biggest export markets.
Abe also has yet to deliver pro-growth reforms, considered necessary to bring back long-term solid growth that has eluded Japan for the past two decades.
There are also heightened worries over rising interest rates in the government bond market, which could undermine the BOJ's policies and refocus attention on Japan's huge public debt burden worth more than twice the size of its economy.
Yet the tailwind of extra stimulus spending is expected to sustain the momentum at least for the remainder of this year.
"The economy will enjoy strong growth for another year or so. It's no longer just about brightening sentiment and rises in equities prices. There's now proof that Abenomics is working and that the economy is on a solid footing," said Yoshiki Shinke, senior economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo.
(Additional reporting by Chris Gallagher, Stanley White and Leika Kihara; Editing by Tomasz Janowski and Shri Navaratnam)
2-2
Analysis: Little sign Abe can shake up Japan's inbound FDI
By Stanley White
TOKYO | Sun May 19, 2013 5:25pm EDT
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan risks missing, yet again, an opportunity to use foreign investment to help fuel sustained economic growth that has eluded it for the last two decades.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged to make Japan "the world's easiest country for companies to do business in" as part of his economic revival plan, which so far has been largely met with approval. The stock market has rallied 45 percent this year and Abe's approval ratings are around 70 percent.
Abe gave further hints on Friday about government plans to be unveiled in a longer-term economic growth strategy, referring to tripling infrastructure exports and doubling farm exports.
But a month before that strategy is due to be unveiled, his efforts to ramp up inbound foreign direct investment (FDI) are showing little indication a trickle of foreign investment will turn into a tide.
"Over the last five years, 90 percent of my work has been outbound deals," said Ken Lebrun, chair of the FDI committee at the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan and a partner at the law firm Shearman & Sterling specializing in mergers and acquisitions.
"The reason is the same as why Japanese companies haven't been acquiring companies in Japan: growth prospects are poor. Hopefully, Abe's reforms will improve these perceptions."
At first glance, Japan is tough to sell to a foreign investor. Its population is ageing and quickly shrinking. Its own corporations are pessimistic about home markets and have been hoarding cash or investing overseas.
Yet its appeal lies in the sheer size of the $5 trillion-plus economy, the world's third-largest, a survey by international consultancy Accenture showed in March last year.
In insurance and pharmaceuticals, areas of foreign investor interest, Japan is second only to the United States in market size, reports from ratings agency Standard & Poor's and research firm IMS Medical show.
Standing in the way of foreign investment are barriers that have kept Japan at the bottom of the FDI league table.
Compared with the size of the economy, foreign direct investment inflows into Japan are the lowest among the 34 developed nations grouped in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
The total amount of inward FDI was less than 4 percent of its economic output at the end of 2011. In comparison, Britain's was 48.8 percent of GDP in 2011, while in the United States it was nearly a fifth of GDP.
The OECD's index of regulatory restrictions to FDI, which includes limits on foreign equity holdings, screening and approval procedures, rules on hiring foreigners and rules on repatriating capital, showed Japan was the club's most closed economy in 2012.
To break the mould, Japan needs to simplify and reduce corporate taxes, cut red tape and scale back regulations that are so excessive that they even deter Japanese firms, economists say.
"The single biggest area that Britain and other countries would welcome is a bigger move on deregulation and liberalization," said Sue Kinoshita, director of trade and investment at the British Embassy.
1-2
The benefits of foreign investment would be heightened competition for skilled workers, which could help reverse a long decline in Japanese wages and boost productivity, helping to address concerns about the "hollowing out" of manufacturing.
"We have a lot of outgoing FDI, so we need to balance this with more incoming FDI," said Yasuo Yamamoto, senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute.
Rather than break the mould though, the advisory panels charged with drafting the growth strategy are discussing only modest steps, such as tax breaks for special economic zones.
One idea is to provide incentives for English-speaking doctors to work in Japan and another is to run Tokyo's subway and bus networks 24 hours a day. Proponents suggest that would make Japan more attractive to foreign executives.
Areas that are likely to remain a no-go zone for foreigners are agriculture and construction, two industries that tend to rely on cozy government ties for protection.
At 1.2 percent of GDP, the size of Japan's agriculture sector is about the same as many developed economies.
The appeal is that whoever can fix the sector's notorious lack of efficiency stands a better chance at marketing Japan's high-end vegetables, beef and other produce to gourmet consumers overseas.
Construction, on the other hand, may not hold much appeal to foreign firms as there are few prospects for growth after decades of excessive public works projects.
Elderly care is one area that will be growing as Japan ages. A third of Japanese will be 65 or older by 2035, up from a quarter now.
It is ripe for new entrants, foreign or local, but it is also a prime example of the red tape keeping newcomers at bay.
Each of Japan's 47 prefectures issue the licenses for nursing homes in their areas. But local governments often deny licenses to avoid the subsidies they have to pay to nursing home workers, who themselves have to hold several licenses and qualifications to work.
Pharmaceutical firms complain that strict rules on clinical trials and on prescribing new drugs make access to the Japanese market lengthier and costlier than other leading economies.
Some economists say Japan should make it easier for foreign companies to enter the renewable energy market in Japan as the country ponders life without nuclear power after the 2011 Fukushima disaster.
Letting foreign players in is sometimes the best way to shake things up, such as when French automaker Renault (RENA.PA) took over Nissan Motor Co Ltd (7201.T) in 1999.
Nissan's chief Carlos Ghosn implemented what become known as the "Ghosn shock" by aggressively pushing its steel suppliers to cut prices. At the time Japanese automakers did not dare to squeeze their long-time suppliers.
The result was lower steel prices for all automakers and a restructuring of the steel industry.
絹遺産群で大騒ぎしている群馬だが、中国のシルクロードは世界経済を動かす大事業の舞台。冷戦の現実。イラン、中国、ロシアを中心とした反民主主義勢力が世界を主導するなんて、想像するだけで背筋に冷たいものが走る。
*****
New Silk Road Could Change Global Economics Forever
By Robert Berke of Oilprice.com Posted on Thu, 21 May 2015 20:58 | 1
Part 1: The New Silk Road
Beginning with the marvelous tales of Marco Polo’s travels across Eurasia to China, the Silk Road has never ceased to entrance the world. Now, the ancient cities of Samarkand, Baku, Tashkent, and Bukhara are once again firing the world’s imagination.
China is building the world’s greatest economic development and construction project ever undertaken: The New Silk Road. The project aims at no less than a revolutionary change in the economic map of the world. It is also seen by many as the first shot in a battle between east and west for dominance in Eurasia.
The ambitious vision is to resurrect the ancient Silk Road as a modern transit, trade, and economic corridor that runs from Shanghai to Berlin. The 'Road' will traverse China, Mongolia, Russia, Belarus, Poland, and Germany, extending more than 8,000 miles, creating an economic zone that extends over one third the circumference of the earth.
The plan envisions building high-speed railroads, roads and highways, energy transmission and distributions networks, and fiber optic networks. Cities and ports along the route will be targeted for economic development.
An equally essential part of the plan is a sea-based “Maritime Silk Road” (MSR) component, as ambitious as its land-based project, linking China with the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea through Central Asia and the Indian Ocean.
When completed, like the ancient Silk Road, it will connect three continents: Asia, Europe, and Africa. The chain of infrastructure projects will create the world's largest economic corridor, covering a population of 4.4 billion and an economic output of $21 trillion.
Politics and Finance:
The idea for reviving the New Silk Road was first announced in 2013 by the Chinese President, Xi Jinping. As part of the financing of the plan, in 2014, the Chinese leader also announced the launch of an Asian International Infrastructure Bank (AIIB), providing seed funding for the project, with an initial Chinese contribution of $47 billion.
China has invited the international community of nations to take a major role as bank charter members and partners in the project. Members will be expected to contribute, with additional funding by international funds, including the World Bank, investments from private and public companies, and local governments.
Some 58 nations have signed on to become charter bank members, including most of Western Europe, along with many Silk Road and Asian countries. There are 12 NATO countries among AIIB´s founding member states (UK, France, Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Denmark, Iceland, Spain, Portugal, Poland and Norway), along with three of the main US military allies in Asia (Australia, S. Korea and New Zealand).
After failed attempts by the US to persuade allies against joining the bank, the US reversed course, and now says that it has always supported the project, a disingenuous position considering the fact that US opposition was hardly a secret. The Wall Street Journal reported in November 2014 that “the U.S. has also lobbied hard against Chinese plans for a new infrastructure development bank…including during teleconferences of the Group of Seven major industrial powers.
1-3
The Huffington Post’s Alastair Crooke had this to say on the matter: “For very different motives, the key pillars of the region (Iran, Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan) are re-orienting eastwards. It is not fully appreciated in the West how important China's "Belt and Road" initiative is to this move (and Russia, of course is fully integrated into the project). Regional states can see that China is very serious indeed about creating huge infrastructure projects from Asia to Europe. They can also see what occurred with the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), as the world piled in (to America's very evident dismay). These states intend to be a part of it.”
Buttressing this effort, China plans on injecting at least $62 billion into three banks to support the New Silk Road. The China Development Bank (CDB) will receive $32 billion, the Export Import Bank of China (EXIM) will take on $30 billion, and the Chinese government will also pump additional capital into the Agricultural Development Bank of China (ADBC).
The US: Unlikely Partner on the Silk Road:
Will the US join the effort? If the new Trans-Pacific Partnership (that pointedly leaves out both Russia and China, two Pacific powers) is any indication, US participation seems unlikely and opposition all but certain.
But there's no good reason that America should sacrifice its own leadership role in the region to China. A project as vast and complicated as the Silk Road will need US technology, experience, and resources to lower risk, removing political barriers for other allied countries like Japan to join in, while maintaining US influence in Eurasia. The Silk Road could enhance US objectives, and US support could improve the outcome of the project.
An editorial in the Wall St. Journal argues that the US proposed trade agreement and China's sponsored Silk Road project are complimentary, with the trade agreement aimed at writing rules for international trade, while the Chinese aim at developing infrastructure is necessary for increased trade.
Initial Project:
A look at the first project, currently under development, provides a good example of how China plans to proceed.
The first major economic development project will take place in Pakistan, where the Chinese have been working for years, building and financing a strategic deepwater port at Gwadar, on the Arabian Sea, that will be managed by China as the long-term leaseholder.
Gwadar will become the launching point for the much delayed Iran-Pakistan natural gas pipeline, which will ultimately be extended to China, with the Persian section already built and the Pakistan-Chinese section largely financed and constructed by the Chinese.
The pipeline is also set to traverse the country, following the Karakoram Mountain Highway towards Tibet, and cross the Chinese western border to Xinjang. The highway will also be widened and modernized, and a railroad built, connecting the highway to Gwadar.
Originally, the plan was to extend the pipeline to India, with Qatar joining Iran as natural gas suppliers, forging what some considered a “peace pipeline” between India and Pakistan, but India withdrew, under pressure from the US along with its own concerns over having its energy supplies dependent upon its adversary, Pakistan.
India's Counter:
Not surprisingly, India, a US ally, countered China's initiative with one of its own, announcing a new agreement to build a port in Iran on the Arabian Sea, only a few hundred miles from Gwadar, bringing Iranian energy to India via Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan.
Although it would offer an alternative to the Chinese-backed Gwadar initiative, the US warned India not to move ahead with the port project before a final nuclear agreement between Iran and the West is actually signed.
2-3
Both the Chinese and Indian projects are clearly in defiance of international sanctions on Iran, but both countries appear unconcerned. The Chinese could also be accused of a ‘double dip’ sanctions violation, given the immense and continuing trade deals it negotiated with Russia.
The rest of the business world is sure to follow, or risk losing out in what is certain to be a new “gold rush” towards Asia in a world still struggling with the lingering effects of the great recession. And New Delhi pointed out the harsh truth: American energy companies are also trying to negotiate deals with Iran. Following on the heels of the US visit, the German mission is due in Tehran soon, with the French beating everyone to the punch in an earlier visit.
What then of sanctions? Sanctions only work in a world united behind them. If a large part of the world chooses to ignore sanctions, they become unenforceable.
Conclusions:
China and much of the world is intent on developing the largest economic development project in history, one that could have dramatic ripple effects throughout the world economy.
The project is expected to take decades, with costs running into the hundreds of billions of dollars, if not trillions. What that will mean for the world economy and trade is almost inconceivable. Is it any wonder then, that the world’s largest hedge funds, like Goldman Sachs and Blackstone, are rushing to market new multi-billion dollar international infrastructure investment funds?
No doubt a project as large and complex as this is likely to have failures, and is certain to face many western geopolitical obstructions. Assuredly, the “great game” will continue. Look no further than US President Barack Obama, who also senses the urgency. “If we don’t write the rules, China will write the rules out in that region,” he said in defense of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
In a world where economic growth is tepid, with Europe still struggling with the aftermath of the global recession, along with China's growth slowdown, where else could a project that promises so much opportunity be found?
It's a good bet that giant iron mining companies like Vale, that have seen their business fall to a thirteen-year low, are currently busy figuring how much steel goes into construction of a new, high speed 8,000 mile railroad. If the project is successful, it could very well spark a boom across the entire depressed international mining, commodities, and construction sectors.
Consider how many jobs could be created in a decades-long construction project that spans a huge region of the world. In practically every sector, the prospects are enormous for a revival of trade and commerce.
The ancient Silk Road increased trade across the known world, but the Road also offered far more than trade. One of its least anticipated benefits was the widespread exchange of knowledge, learning, discovery, and culture.
Beyond the riches of silks, spices, and jewelry, it could be argued that the most important thing that Marco Polo brought back from China was a famous nautical and world map that was the basis for one of the most famous maps published in Europe, one that helped spark the Age of Discovery. Christopher Columbus was guided by that map and was known to have a well-annotated copy of Marco Polo's travel tales with him on his voyage of discovery of a new route to India.
For the world at large, its decisions about the Road are nothing less than momentous. The massive project holds the potential for a new renaissance in commerce, industry, discovery, thought, invention, and culture that could well rival the original Silk Road. It is also becoming clearer by the day that geopolitical conflicts over the project could lead to a new cold war between East and West for dominance in Eurasia.
The outcome is far from certain.
Coming in May, Part 2: Cold War or Competition on the New Silk Road.
3-3
グローバル下の貿易関税における消費者保護重視のアメリカ経済学。
****
Donald Trump wants you to pay more for smartphones, TVs and a lot else
Yahoo Finance By Rick Newman Jan.8.2016/2 hours ago
View photo=U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump holds up his notes of a recent poll at a campaign rally in Claremont
What to do about China? It employs millions of people manufacturing things that used to be Made in America, and sells way more stuff to the United States than it buys from us.
Donald Trump’s solution is to get tough on China by imposing steep new tariffs on products made in China. The Republican presidential candidate told the New York Times recently that he’d levy a 45% tax on Chinese imports. The idea is to make Chinese goods more expensive so that American producers who pay their workers more can gain a competitive edge.
There’s a painful side effect to this plan, however: It would, well, make a lot of products more expensive, and most of the price hikes would come straight out of consumer wallets. China ships about $500 billion worth of goods to the United States every year, which is about one-fourth of all imports. Goods from China include iPhones, TVs, clothes, furniture, toys and a lot of other things found in nearly every American home. A 45% tariff on Chinese imports would encourage other low-cost exporters, such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and Mexico, to ship more goods to America. Whether U.S. producers would gain an edge is debatable.
1-2
Protectionists often argue that the cost of tariffs is borne largely by producers in foreign countries. But inevitably, some or most of any additional tax gets passed on to people who buy the products. “When you institute a tariff, the price goes up for consumers,” says economist Adam Ozimek of Moody’s Analytics. “People will also buy less. So consumers are hurt not just by rising prices, but by consuming less.”
The portion of Trump’s 45% tax that would be passed onto consumers would depend on how much competition there is for any given product. Anything made exclusively in China would become considerably more expensive. A fancy $100 sweater made only in China wouldn’t suddenly cost $145, because there would be fewer buyers at the higher price, and weaker demand would force the manufacturer to adjust the price downward. But it might rise to $115 or $125, since the producer won’t sell at a loss and would have to account for the big jump in costs caused by the new tariff.
Even if there’s competition from producers in other countries, prices would still rise somewhat, since higher prices from one major source allows other sources to raise their prices, too, and make a bit more profit. So if clothes made in China were suddenly 45% more expensive to Americans, similar clothes made in Bangladesh would cost more, as well―not 45% more, but still, more.
That might help American producers making competing products, but even if it did, prices for consumers would still go up. And many low-wage industries that have migrated to China, such as textiles and electronics manufacturing, are likely to stay there. American businesses and entrepreneurs are more interested in making specialized products that can't be produced just anywhere, and in coming up with new producs that command higher profit margins. The best way to boost U.S. growth is to encourage high-end innovation, not to fence off low-wage jobs that can be performed anywhere.
If Trump were to get elected and actually put his tariff into effect, it would reverse a 20-year trend of declining prices for many consumer goods, which has helped offset the rising cost of important things like healthcare and college tuition and occasional spikes in the cost of energy. Overall inflation, excluding food and energy, is a scant 2% at the moment, a level so low that economists worry more about deflation than inflation. But a big tariff on imports would quickly make inflation a big pocketbook concern and leave consumers with less money to spend on other things. Combine that with rising energy prices or some other mild shock and it could even cause a recession.
Trump’s tariff plan would likely meet firm public resistance. Economists would also protest. “Economists disagree about a lot,” says Ozimek, “but there’s very strong agreement that free trade benefits Americans, on average.” A poll of economists by the University of Chicago, for instance, found that 100% of them believe U.S. trade with China makes most Americans better off.
Most economists also agree that free trade―like anything that improves efficiency and market performance―produces winners and losers. And the losers usually include people who get the job done slower, at a higher cost than competitors. Protecting underperformers isn’t likely to help the U.S. economy. Helping them perform better would.
Rick Newman’s latest book is Liberty for All: A Manifesto for Reclaiming Financial and Political Freedom. Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman.
2-2
Denmark Ranks as Happiest Country; Burundi, Not So Much
MARCH 16, 2016 By SEWELL CHAN The New York Times
Photo=Denmark has topped the World Happiness Report every year but one since 2012. Credit Nils Meilvang/European Pressphoto Agency
LONDON ― Denmark has reclaimed its place as the world’s happiest country, while Burundi ranks as the least happy nation, according to the fourth World Happiness Report, released on Wednesday.
The report found that inequality was strongly associated with unhappiness ― a stark finding for rich countries like the United States, where rising disparities in income, wealth, health and well-being have fueled political discontent.
Denmark topped the list in the first report, in 2012, and again in 2013, but it was displaced by Switzerland last year. In this year’s ranking, Denmark was back at No. 1, followed by Iceland, Norway, Finland, Canada, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Australia and Sweden. Most are fairly homogeneous nations with strong social safety nets.
At the bottom of the list of more than 150 countries was Burundi, where a violent political crisis broke out last year. Burundi was preceded by Syria, Togo, Afghanistan, Benin, Rwanda, Guinea, Liberia, Tanzania and Madagascar. All of those nations are poor, and many have been destabilized by war, disease or both.
Of the world’s most populous nations, China came in at No. 83, India at No. 118, the United States at No. 13, Indonesia at No. 79, Brazil at No. 17, Pakistan at No. 92, Nigeria at No. 103, Bangladesh at No. 110, Russia at No. 56, Japan at No. 53 and Mexico at No. 21. The United States rose two spots, from No. 15 in 2015.
From 2005 to 2015, Greece saw the largest drop in happiness of any country, a reflection of the economic crisis that began there in 2007.
Picture=A market in Bujumbura, the capital of Burundi. Burundi, a poor African nation where a violent political crisis broke out last year, came in last according to the fourth World Happiness Report. Credit Tyler Hicks/The New York Times
The happiness ranking was based on individual responses to a global poll conducted by Gallup. The poll included a question, known as the Cantril Ladder: “Please imagine a ladder, with steps numbered from 0 at the bottom to 10 at the top. The top of the ladder represents the best possible life for you and the bottom of the ladder represents the worst possible life for you. On which step of the ladder would you say you personally feel you stand at this time?”
The scholars found that three-quarters of the variation across countries could be explained by six variables: gross domestic product per capita (the rawest measure of a nation’s wealth); healthy years of life expectancy; social support (as measured by having someone to count on in times of trouble); trust (as measured by perceived absence of corruption in government and business); perceived freedom to make life choices; and generosity (as measured by donations).
The report was prepared by the Sustainable Development Solutions Network, an international panel of social scientists that includes economists, psychologists and public health experts convened by the United Nations secretary general, Ban Ki-moon.
Though the findings do not represent the formal views of the United Nations, the network is closely tied to the Sustainable Development Goals, which the organization adopted in September, aiming, among other things, to end poverty and hunger by 2030, while saving the planet from the most destructive effects of climate change.
1-2
The field of happiness research has grown in recent years, but there is significant disagreement about how to measure happiness. Some scholars find people’s subjective assessments of their well-being to be unreliable, and they prefer objective indicators like economic and health data. The scholars behind the World Happiness Report said they tried to take both types of data into account.
In a chapter of the report on the distribution of happiness around the world, three economists ― John F. Helliwell, of the University of British Columbia; Haifang Huang of the University of Alberta; and Shun Wang of the Korea Development Institute ― argued against a widely held view that changes in people’s assessments of their lives are largely transitory. Under this view, people have a baseline level of contentment and rapidly adapt to changing circumstances.
The three economists noted that crises can prompt vastly different responses based on the underlying social fabric. In Greece, where the economy began to plummet in 2007, setting off a crisis in the eurozone that has resulted in three financial bailouts, widespread corruption and mistrust were associated with the diminishing sense of happiness over the past decade.
In contrast, trust and “social capital” are so high in Japan that scholars found, to their surprise, that happiness actually increased in Fukushima, which was devastated by an earthquake and tsunami in 2011, because an outpouring of generosity and cooperation contributed to the community’s resilience and rebuilding.
“A crisis imposed on a weak institutional structure can actually further damage the quality of the supporting social fabric if the crisis triggers blame and strife rather than cooperation and repair,” the economists wrote. “On the other hand, economic crises and natural disasters can, if the underlying institutions are of sufficient quality, lead to improvements rather than damage to the social fabric.”
The report, which was released in Rome, included a chapter analyzing Pope Francis’ influential encyclical last year, called “Laudato Si’,” or “Praise Be to You,” which included a cutting assessment of a world in which continuous technological progress was accompanied by environmental degradation, growing anxieties about the future and persistent injustice and violence.
Jeffrey D. Sachs, a Columbia University economist who edited the report with Dr. Helliwell and Richard Layard of the London School of Economics, praised Pope Francis’ admonition against hedonism and consumerism.
He also forcefully rejected the notion that happiness and freedom ― especially when narrowly defined as economic liberty ― are interchangeable.
“The libertarian argument that economic freedom should be championed above all other values decisively fails the happiness test: There is no evidence that economic freedom per se is a major direct contributor of human well-being above and beyond what it might contribute towards per-capita income and employment,” Dr. Sachs wrote. “Individual freedom matters for happiness, but among many objectives and values, not to the exclusion of those other considerations.”
2-2
