Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic regions. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
トピAnswer:
The reporter's claim that decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea contains several logical flaws, and lends little credibility. Rather than relying solely on groundless reasoning, the reporter needs to consider the following points before making a final conclusion.
First and foremost, the whole reasoning of the report is based upon an assumption that the arctic deer's population will not change much over time. Let us think about a situation where the population of the arctic deer is increasing each year by 1.2 fold. Despite the fact that deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea and decrease, the increase in population will obviously lead to an total increase of the arctic deer's population in the end. Situations like this would weaken the validity of the reporter's claim, and in order to verify the claim, detailed investigation on this point must be addressed.
Second, although the reporter mentioned that deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen made the population of the arctic deer decline, he or she did not touch upon the other types of cause such as environment pollution, predatory animals and so on. The reporter must be aware of the fact that change in age-old migration patterns is just one of the cause. It is true that this change will cause decline in deer's population. However, the cause of other factors are also comparably large. If further investigation of the decline of the arctic deer showed that such other cause are also being counted as much as change in age-old migration patterns, then, the reporter's claim would become more convincing.
トピAnswer:
Third, the reporter insisted that according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. If most hunters in Canada's arctic regions have responded to the survey, it will be a considerable number. However, there is a possibility that only small fraction of the hunters' population- those who really care about the decline of the deer's population. If that is the case, the opinion of a small group of the regions' population won't represent the consensus opinion of the entire Canada's arctic regions. It is not acceptable to assume a trend based on the response of a handful of people and treat that propensity as a representation of the entire regions' population. If these statistics were still to be used as supporting data, the reporter would have to ensure that the survey results represent the voice of a significant proposition of the entire population..
Fourth, the reporter assumes that decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. Whether this trend is the indication of the deer's population decline or simply a temporary trend is not clear. At least, at this point, it is too soon to conclude that this trend is due to an ongoing decline in deer's populations.
As discussed above, the reporter's claim is based on several assumptions that are not sufficiently supported. Before arriving at the final conclusion, the reporter should acknowledge that there are many factors that are involved in this story, and undertake additional investigation to clarify the uncertainties pointed out above.(573 words)
change変わり
First and foremost, the whole reasoning of the report is based upon an assumption that the arctic deer's population will not change much over time. Let us think about a situation where the population of the arctic deer is decreasing each year by 0.8 fold. Despite the fact that deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea and decrease, the decrease in population will obviously lead to an total decrease of the arctic deer's population in the end. Situations like this would weaken the validity of the reporter's claim, and in order to verify the claim, detailed investigation on this point must be addressed.
