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ノーベル賞シラー教授の分析が示す「日本株は割高」 Name 名無し 13/10/30(水)14:28:06 No.282555 del 18日23:20頃消えます[返信]
「株式相場はやや割高だ」――。今年のノーベル経済学賞の受賞が決まった米エール大学のロバート・シラー教授は10月中旬、大学での記者会見で、史上最高値を更新する米国株式相場に言及し、買われすぎとの認識を…
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原油価格の下落容認は「シェールつぶし」か ── OPECの原油価格戦略 Name 名無し 15/01/28(水)15:52:14 No.357438 del 21日04:25頃消えます[返信]
昨年夏以降、原油の国際価格は急速に下落し、指標となるテキサス産軽質油（WTI）の価格は、1バレル＝40ドル台で推移しています。これは一時、110ドル近くに達していた昨年6月の水準に比べると約6割も安くなっています。
シェール革命 vs. OPEC価格戦略
価格下落の原因の一つは、欧州や日本など主要国経済の低迷と、中国など新興国経済の減速で世界的な原油需要が減少し、「供給過剰」の状態に陥っていることがあげられます。これに昨年11月下旬のOPEC（石油輸出国機構）総会での減産見送りが重なり、産油国は価格下落を容認したとして、原油価格は下落を続けています。
今回の価格下落局面で指摘されているのがアメリカのシェール革命とOPECの価格戦略との「対決」です。アメリカはシェール革命で原油に代わるシェールオイルの生産が増え、以前のように中東から大量に輸入する必要がなくなったため、エネルギーの中東依存が減っています。 http://newsbiz.yahoo.co.jp/detail?a=20150128-00000003-wordleaf-nb
… 無題 Name 名無し 15/01/28(水)15:52:30 No.357439 del
このため、原油の市場シェアを失うことを恐れたOPECの盟主・サウジアラビアが、1バレルあたり50ドルから80ドルとされるシェールオイルの生産コストを下回る水準に原油価格を誘導し、採算割れで生産を成り立たなくさせるという見方です。いわば「シェールつぶし」です。市場価格の下落をあえて容認し、OPECの市場支配力を維持するというシナリオと見る向きがあります。
しかしこれは「もろ刃の剣」ともいえます。価格下落で困るのはOPEC自身でもあるからです。原油価格が下落すれば、産油国の石油収入は減少します。世界最大の産油国サウジのように豊富な外貨準備を持ち、財政的な体力がある国はまだいいですが、OPECの中でもベネズエラのような国は財政基盤が弱く、石油収入が減ると経済を直撃し、国民生活が困窮する事態に陥りかねません。
… 無題 Name 名無し 15/01/28(水)15:52:57 No.357440 del
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シェールつぶしは産油国側にも影響
国によって原油の生産コストは異なりますが、国際通貨基金（IMF）による推計では、主要な産油国が財政を均衡させる原油価格の水準は、イランが130ドル前後、サウジが100ドル前後、クウェートで50ドル前後と試算されています。OPEC加盟国ではありませんが、ロシアは110ドル前後とみられています。産油国がシェールつぶしを狙っても、低水準の原油価格が長期間続くと、産油国側にも影響が大きいのです。ロシアでは通貨ルーブルが急落し、経済の先行きに懸念が生じる「逆オイルショック」と呼ばれる事態となっています。
OPECは現在、市場価格とアメリカのシェールガス業界の動向をにらみつつ、産油国にとって望ましい価格水準を研究しているものと見られます。市場関係者の間では、原油価格は1バレル＝30ドル台まで下がるとの見方もある一方で、原油価格が上昇に転じる時期はさほど遠くないとの見方もあります。原油価格は当面、底値を探りながら不安定な状況が続く見通しです。
