ふーーん、タイ人も金持ちになりましたねえ。
カフェといえば、チェンマイにlove at first biteというカフェがあるのですが、甘党の私にはケーキが最高でした。ドリンクもレベル高かった。
しかし、ニマンヘミン通りのスタバの横前に二つ位のカフェ密集地があって、私が一番好きだったのはスタバの斜め前のカフェだったんですが、去年行ったときは潰れていました。スタバの横のカフェも潰れていました。
共倒れか?もしくはカフェ人気が陰ったのか?スタバだけが生き残っていました。タイのお昼はクーラーの効いたカフェが良いです。
どこのカフェも椅子が心地よかったのがだめだったのでしょうか?
AUの椅子は木であれならわたしは30分で出たくなると思います(笑)。
でも取り合えずは、株価は人気投票ですから、業績が良ければ株価はあがると思いました。
Rental cost negotiations continue with expected mutual benefit
AOT believes the negotiations with the Treasury Department regarding new rental costs should be mutually beneficial. The rental contract may be terminated if the cost increase makes the project unfeasible. Nevertheless, we believe this issue will still be a negative catalyst for AOT and maintain an “Underperform” rating, with the TP rolled over to FY18E at Bt47. Every Bt1bn rental cost increase will lower our FY17E net profit projection and TP for AOT by 3% and 1%, respectively.
Revise up passenger volume growth in FY17-18E to 8% for each year
AOT’s passenger volume in May-17 (preliminary figures) grew by 5.8% YoY; +7.3% for international and +4.0% YoY for domestic. YTD (fiscal year), passenger volume grew by 7.2%, vs. AOT’s own target of +7.0% YoY for the whole year. However, with the low-base impact from the crackdown on illegal tour operators in 2HFY16, we believe passenger volume in 2HFY17E will likely accelerate. As a result, we decide to revise up passenger volume growth in FY17-18E to +8% p.a., vs. +7% previously.
Custom Free Zone operation to add revenue of ~Bt500mn in FY18E
Last year, AOT terminated the Custom Free Zone concession contract with the previous operator and turn back to its own operation. AOT expects to increase this revenue by Bt500mn in FY18E due to more efficient management. Meanwhile, AOT expects to increase new business from this operation in the future, especially related to e-commerce, etc.
Bidding for new duty free operator to start by yearend
AOT insists that the concession contracts with King Power to operate duty free at SBIA, which will expire in Sep-20, are legal and accountable, including the Point of Sale (POS) system. The tendering process for seeking a new operator of the duty free will likely start by late this year or early next year. The operator for the new terminal (Phase II expansion) will likely be chosen at the same time.
Slightly lower earnings projections in FY17E, FY18-19E maintained
We slightly lower norm. profit in FY17E by 3% to Bt22.1bn, vs. Bt22.7bn previously, owing to: 1) a lower revenue projection by 2% to Bt55.1bn due to lower average PSC (due to a higher portion of domestic passengers) and lower flight movement growth to +5%, vs. +8% previously, and 2) an upward revision to operating costs by 1.7% due partly to a rental cost increase for regional airports. However, we maintain our norm. profit projections in FY18-19E as the upward revision of passenger volume growth and additional revenue from the Custom Free Zone will likely offset the cost increase.
2018E year-end SET target at 1,720 points
We rolled over our SET target to 2018E yearend at 1,720 points, based on a bottom-up approach with a discount of 3.5% (equivalent to 15.6x PER over the 2018E EPS estimate). This base-case SET target assumes that a general election will take place next year. In the meantime, we have also changed our view toward the Thai equity market to “Slightly Positive” from “Slightly Negative” previously.
Foreign fund flows to continue driving the Thai equity market
Former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s fleeing from the kingdom has triggered changes in Thailand’s political path. The implication of her absence is that the political tension in Thailand for the remainder of this year through next year is expected to ease. The current situation may have an impact on the level of popularity of the Pheu Thai Party in the next general election.
Furthermore, external shock buffers in Thailand are relatively better than those seen in EM counterparts. This implies that Thailand is an attractive short-term investment destination amid uncertainty in global financial markets, especially regarding growing tension in the Korean Peninsula and concerns over U.S. politics.
Second-half GDP growth this year forecast at 3.7%
We expect to see a brighter outlook for the Thai economy in the second half, 3.7% in 2H17F vs. 3.5% in 1H17. Key drivers are anticipated stronger demand, in particular merchandise exports, and to a lesser degree, private consumption and investment. Meanwhile, the monetary policy stance remains accommodative as the Bank of Thailand is likely to keep its policy rate steady at 1.50% for the next several months.
Expect just modest growth in SET-listed firms’ earnings
The earnings revisions this year look slightly weak due in part to relatively weaker earnings growth in domestic economy-linked sectors, e.g., banks, and weaker earnings in the ICT sector where competition has intensified. We project the market’s EPS growth at 7.2% for this year and 9.9% for 2018E.
Investment Themes
Given our upbeat view toward fund flows, we employed a top-down approach to select our top-pick stocks. We particularly focus on stocks included in the MSCI Thailand Index, including PTT, IRPC, BANPU, PTTGC, SCC, EGCO, SCB and BBL. Meanwhile, in a bottom-up approach, we favor earnings plays, i.e., stocks demonstrating outstanding net profit growth during 2H17-18E, including IRPC, GUNKUL, TPCH, SC, BJC, MTLS, STEC and MINT.
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December 11th, 2017 is our public holiday (Substitution for Constitution Day). Consequently, The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), The Market for Alternative Investment (MAI) & The Thailand Futures Exchange (TFEX) will be closed on this coming Monday.
Please be advised that July 27, 2018 and July 30, 2018 are our public holiday (Asarnha Bucha Holiday and Substitution for H.M. the King's Birthday Anniversary). Consequently, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), the Market for Alternative Investment (MAI) and the Thailand Futures Exchange (TFEX) will close on this coming Friday and Monday.
Please be informed that April 15 - 16, 2019 is our public holiday (Songkran Festival). Consequently, The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), The Market for Alternative Investment (MAI), & The Thailand Futures Exchange (TFEX) will close on this coming, Monday and Tuesday.
The quarterly review for May remains mostly the same but with the following weighting increases:
1. The weighting of China A-shares has been increased in the MSCI EM Index to +1.76%. The increase will be implemented in three steps: the FIF was increased in the May review to 0.1 vs. 0.05, and it will be increased further to 0.2 in the review in November 2019.
2. Saudi Arabia (MSCI implemented the first of two steps in this review, with its total weighting in the MSCI EM Index increasing to 1.42%).
3. Argentina (implemented in one step, with a weighting of 0.26% in the MSCI EM Index).
Thai equities: The Thai stocks newly added to the MSCI Global Index are INTUCH, RATCH and DTAC, while DELTA has been removed.
MSCI Small Cap Index: AEONTS, AAV, BLA, EASTW, PSH and TASCO have been added, while MC, PRINC, THCOM, TFG, VGI and VIBHA have been removed.
Other stocks with a higher weighting are SCC, BDMS, CPN, BBL, LH, EGCO, CPALL and TU, while SCB had its weighting reduced.
The review will become effective from May 28, 2019, onward.