日本ではドイツ社会はまったく知られてはいない。
真似しろと言われても、
リーダー無しの日本ではどうすることもできないだろう。
*****
Monday, March 7, 2011
THE VIEW FROM EUROPE
Germany's economic miracle: New lessons await for old Japan
By JOCHEN LEGEWIE
The economies of Japan and Germany, similar in many respects, are often compared. Not only did both rise from the ashes of World War II to become the leading economies in their regions, but they also formed strong manufacturing bases, large numbers of successful midsize companies and enjoyed extreme success in the global export market.
Their current situations and business environments, however, could not be more different. While the mood in Japan is one of doom, the world is marveling at Germany's economic miracle. In February, the Economist even described German Chancellor Angela Merkel as "Angela in Wunderland."
Germany has been the star performer of the G7 over the past decade and grew an astonishing 3.6 percent in 2010. The general mood of its population is more optimistic than it's been in a decade.
Unemployment is at its lowest since 1992, contrasting starkly with Japan, where university graduates are struggling to find their first job. According to the Ifo Institute, German business confidence soared in February to its highest in 40 years.
In Japan, however, the business mood is stubbornly low. The Bank of Japan's latest tankan survey said that only 16 percent of companies view the current climate as favorable or neutral. Five years ago the ratio was over 50 percent.
The reasons for this are manifest and too numerous to list here. One often neglected reason, however, is the long-term effect German reunification has had on the mindset of the people.
After the first celebratory months, Germans both east and west came to face the harsh reality of rebuilding the eastern half, which took much more time and money than originally anticipated. This lowered morale and business confidence in Germany for many years, but it also prepared the country for the economic crisis that followed the Lehman shock.
While the world turned pessimistic and economic activity plummeted nearly everywhere but China, Germany managed the situation well, simply judging it to be much less of a hardship than the reconstruction of East Germany had been a decade earlier.
The second underpinning of Germany's resurgence was provided by the macroeconomic environment and recent reforms. The switch from the deutsch mark to the euro has practically worked as a currency devaluation for Germany, raising its export competitiveness within Europe. The so-called Hartz reforms have made labor markets much more flexible, and the loosening of banks' cross-shareholdings has effectively terminated Germany Inc.
Another difference with Japan is Germany's handling of the corporate tax ratio, which has already been lowered significantly, and its ability to raise the consumption tax at the same time without triggering a public uproar.
These reforms gave a direct boost to factor three, which is the strength of individual German firms, which boast many world champions. A recent study published by the ICCP-Harvard Business School shows that German firms are either dominating or among the top three in more than half of all global industries.
These reforms gave a direct boost to factor three, which is the strength of individual German firms, which boast many world champions. A recent study published by the ICCP-Harvard Business School shows that German firms are either dominating or among the top three in more than half of all global industries.
U.S. and Chinese firms are ranked No. 2 and 3 with the world champions in about 40 percent of all industries, while Japan is a distant No. 4, with just 20 percent of all industries dominated by Japanese firms.
The study identifies four reasons for Germany fielding more world champions than any other country:
1) Early international expansion: Companies such as BASF or Siemens began international operations more than 100 years ago and within a few years of being established.
2) Long-term orientation: Family-owned Otto Bock, the world's leading producer of arm and leg prosthetics, is just one example. It has only had three bosses over the past 90 years.
3) Customized products: The modularization of products and services customized to different countries and needs has helped firms such as Schueco and Allianz to become world leaders, one in solar power and window solutions and the other in materials insurance.
4) Technological leadership: Most German world-beaters invest much more in R&D than their peers. The ratio for Bosch, for example, is near 10 percent in the area of automotive technology.
This list reveals a striking fact. All of the success factors, with the partial exception of early international expansion, also apply to Japanese firms. Actually, most Japanese manufacturers have exactly the same characteristics as their German peers.
So why are their economic situations so different now?
Here we must return to the macro environment. While Germany has successfully taken the path of reform, changes are still crawling along at a snail's pace in Japan. Politics remains at a standstill, and even simple tax reforms are a struggle to achieve.
Japanese companies clearly have strong potential to keep their economy and country among the world's leaders. Some lessons on how to do so can be found in Germany. So why not take a closer look at a country that is celebrating 150 years of diplomatic relations with Japan this year? That's certainly be more productive than re-emphasizing U.S. ties or lamenting a loss in prestige to China.
Jochen Legewie is president of German communications consultancy CNC Japan K.K.
２-２エンド
*****
2009年推計人口
3位 アメリカ合衆国 314,658,780
10位 日本 127,156,225
16位 ドイツ 82,166,671
22位 イギリス 61,565,422
いまや富裕な中国人や香港人が、北海道の土地を買い占めですか。
ニセコの町が中国人観光客のデステイネーションであるのも初耳。
時代の移り変わりを強く感じる。
*********
China's growing sway felt in north Japan ski town
Foreign money revives ski town and could lift Japan, but China's role spurs jitters
Malcolm Foster, Associated Press, On Monday March 7, 2011, 6:30 am
NISEKO, Japan (AP) -- A new language can be heard on the slopes of this popular ski resort in northern Japan: Chinese.
Foreign tourists and investors have flocked to scenic Niseko in recent years, giving this rural region a badly needed economic jolt. It is a rare success story that, if replicated, could help lead Japan out of two decades of stagnation.
Australians were the first to arrive in the early 2000s, followed by skiers from Hong Kong, Singapore and elsewhere in Asia. Mainland Chinese, while still relatively few, are the latest -- and potentially the biggest -- wave.
"This place has so much potential. It's such a nice break from the chaotic situation in China," Guy Cui, a 48-year-old Beijing resident in the financial industry, said as he stepped out of a spacious, modern cabin and squinted in the sunlight.
Last year, he came with 25 friends and relatives over the Lunar New Year holiday. This year, the group swelled to 52. "This is the trend of the future," Cui predicted, prompting a friend to joke that Niseko will be overrun with Chinese in 10 years.
In some ways, what's happening here is a reversal of roles: 20 years ago, Japan was dispatching rich tourists and buying up trophy real estate around the world, prompting people to worry that Japan Inc. would take over the world. Now, Japan's growing dependence on China and other newly wealthy neighbors is creating some consternation at home.
"It's rather like the American fear of the Japanese in the late `80s. It's fear of these rich outsiders coming in and dominating," said Alex Kerr, an author and sustainable tourism consultant in Japan. "That's what happens when a country that thought of itself as the unquestioned dominating leader suddenly discovers that there are others with more money."
Japan has set the ambitious goal of tripling its number of foreign tourists from 8.6 million last year to 25 million by 2020. With its population shrinking and economy flat, Japan must open up to trade, investment and tourism, Prime Minister Naoto Kan declares, if it is to reverse a slow decline. But it's a tall order in this historically insular country.
Foreigners account for about half the hotel nights in Niseko during the winter, and they're snapping up condominiums too. Major developers from Hong Kong and Malaysia plan to turn the place into an Asian Whistler, the Canadian ski resort.
Residents welcome the new money but worry about overdevelopment, the environment and, in particular, China's rise.
Japanese media have played up Chinese purchases of forest land around Niseko, spurring rumors that the buyers plan to strip the hills of lumber and drain the streams of water -- fears that appear to be unfounded.
"We're not sure who's doing what with that land," said Yukio Yamamoto, a Niseko native whose house now stands in the shadow of sleek holiday condominiums. "We want people to come here to the community and invest in it and care for the land."
Set amid rolling hills on the island of Hokkaido, Niseko has plenty going for it: hot springs, clean air, fresh seafood, stunning views of Mt. Yotei -- an extinct volcano that resembles Mt. Fuji -- and 45 feet (14 meters) of powder snow a year, one of the highest levels among resorts worldwide.
It was popular among Japanese during the country's economic heyday, but went into decline after domestic skiing peaked in the early 1990s. Now, the main village of Hirafu has morphed into a bustling hodgepodge of condominiums, cabins and pubs with a distinctly international feel.
In early February, the place was swamped with families from the Chinese-speaking world, particularly Hong Kong, for the Lunar New Year, marked with fireworks at the base of Mt. Annapuri.
Property agents say Hong Kong and Singapore buyers account for 70-80 percent of condominium and land purchases, with interest emerging from Malaysia and mainland China. Japanese developers are largely absent, still gun-shy from an early 1990s property market collapse.
"The Japanese are complacent," said C.J. Wysocki, a Hong Kong-based American lawyer for GE's aircraft business. He built an apartment building with 10 units in Hirafu and sold several to wealthy Asians. "The foreigners are the ones who are saying this place is amazing, it needs to be preserved."
Foreign tourists spent nearly 200,000 hotel nights in area accommodations last winter, up from just 7,800 eight years ago, according to the Niseko Promotion Board, which has hired Korean and Chinese speakers to field questions and maintain its foreign language websites.
Mainland Chinese visitors accounted for 6,100 nights and are expected to top 40,000 within five years, said Tomokazu Aoki, the board's deputy administrative director.
Hokkaido has seen a spike in Chinese visitors after the 2008 hit movie, "If You are the One," which introduced the island's rugged beauty to Chinese viewers.
They aren't big skiers yet -- most hopscotch the island on bus tours to hot springs, lakes and discount shopping centers. But the sport is catching on -- 20 million now ski, up from 5 million a couple of years ago, the China Ski Association estimates -- and demand for resort vacations is expected to increase.
"The wealth will grow, the skiing population will grow, people will want to be more international," said Thomas Liu, a Hong Kong native who lives in Beijing and came to ski with his family.
Malaysia's YTL Corp. bought one of Niseko's four main ski areas, including the Niseko Hilton, for $66 million last year. Pacific Century Premium Developments, the real estate arm of Hong Kong businessman Richard Li's PCCW, bought the nearby Hanazono Resort in 2007.
Both plan upscale condominiums and villages with boutiques and fine dining to remedy the lack of shopping that is essential to drawing Asian tourists.
"Niseko is such a natural destination for what we call new wealth," said Francis Yeoh, the managing director of YTL, who likened Niseko's potential to the beach resorts of Bali in Indonesia or Phuket in Thailand.
Mainland Chinese are coming to Japan in record numbers -- 1.4 million last year, second only to South Koreans -- and they are collectively the biggest spenders. Snapping up cameras, cosmetics and handbags, they make up about a quarter of foreign tourist consumption.
Still, many experts are skeptical that the Niseko formula will work in the many hot springs and ski towns that are in slow decline. Many resist foreign influence, and Kerr calls them "hopelessly old-fashioned."
Hakuba, a ski resort in central Japan, has seen an increase in Australians, but many residents feel strongly about protecting the local culture and don't want change, said Yasuaki Enari, deputy director general of the Hakuba Tourism Bureau.
"Tourism is going to be a massively important industry for Japan in the future, and people haven't caught onto that yet," Kerr said. "The few places like Niseko that have really picked up on it are going to see an economic boom" while the rest will be in trouble in 20 years.
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The arrival of Chinese tourists has sparked culture clashes in Hokkaido.
Shopkeepers and hotel operators complain about Chinese talking loudly in public, cutting in line and taking food from buffets back to their rooms, which is against the rules.
Chinese tourists counter that Japanese can be cold or give preferential treatment to other Japanese.
A pamphlet for foreign visitors from Sapporo, Hokkaido's capital, gives pointers on "doing things the Japanese way." That includes talking quietly, letting restaurants know if you need to cancel reservations and avoiding bargaining except at discount electronic megastores.
Some Japanese don't want to stay in the same hotels as other Asians, so establishments often must choose which market to pursue, said Kuniharu Sakai, deputy manager at a hotel popular with Chinese tourists on the shores of Lake Toya, not far from Niseko.
"We shouldn't push Japanese manners on them," he said. "We need to accept and understand them."
Tourists may ruffle feathers, but Chinese land buying triggers greater fears.
A government investigation found that Hong Kong companies bought 403 acres (163 hectares) of forest land around Niseko in recent years, excluding the Pacific Century-owned land. Mainland investors are sometimes involved in such purchases, though officials don't know whether that's the case in Niseko. In any case, many Japanese lump together Hong Kong and mainland money collectively as "Chinese" in their minds.
Officials also suspect Chinese are behind the purchase of a 720-acre (292-hectare) tract in central Hokkaido by a British Virgin Islands entity.
The buyers, many of whom haven't been publicly identified, often gave vague reasons for the purchases, "which makes us a bit concerned," said Takao Kataoka, chief of the forestry planning section in the Hokkaido government. That's prompted calls for limits on foreign purchases of land.
Marcy Zhang, general manager of Crispins Property Consultancy in Shanghai, which is promoting property in Hokkaido, said most of her clients are wealthy Chinese who want getaway places overseas.
"It's mainly investing in a way of life," she said.
Japanese wariness of Chinese intentions points to the strained relations between the two Asian powers since Japan invaded China in World War II. A territorial spat between the two countries last fall led to a drop in Chinese visitors and reinforced fears in Japan about its neighbor's growing military strength.
Citing security concerns, Japan only allows flights from mainland China and Russia to Hokkaido's main airport on weekends and two weekday afternoons, so they don't coincide with drills at an adjacent Japanese military base. Tourism officials say that creates a bottleneck.
"Many Japanese are wary of Chinese," said Masanobu Saito, the owner of Bang Bang, a popular Japanese-style pub in Niseko's bustling village of Hirafu.
His future is tied increasingly to China's: 70 percent of his customers are from either Hong Kong or the mainland. The dependence on foreigners makes Niseko vulnerable too.
"Niseko is booming thanks to the Chinese," said Saitoh, who has begun studying Mandarin. "So if the Chinese economy were to take a hit, this place definitely would, too."
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電力会社の地域独占による弊害
Utilities' monopoly on power backfires
Kyodo News
On March 13, two days after the massive earthquake and tsunami crippled Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant, utility executives summoned more than 100 reporters to its head office in Tokyo to brief them on what Japan has never experienced except for a few years of chaos right after World War II — rolling blackouts.
Stop sign: A Kanagawa Prefectural Police officer directs traffic at a crossroads in Yokosuka on March 15 after rolling blackouts that day knocked out traffic signals. KYODO PHOTO
It was a measure to restrict electricity supply faced with power shortages after a major nuclear plant and a few thermal stations were crippled by the quake and tsunami.
"We are truly sorry for our customers and members of the public," Tepco President Masataka Shimizu said.
With Tepco the only company serving Tokyo and surrounding prefectures, one might think it would be possible to secure power from other power companies in western Japan.
But "we can only share little because of frequency differences between the eastern and western parts of Japan," a Tepco executive said.
Japanese power frequencies are set at 50 hertz in the east and 60 hertz in the west. For power companies to share electricity, frequency conversion will be required.
However, there are only three conversion facilities, located in Shizuoka and Nagano prefectures, limiting the maximum power that may be shared between east and west to 1 million kw, a fraction of the capacity Tepco has lost in the latest quake crisis — 21 million kw.
This isn't the first time Tepco has been faced with power supply shortages. It has experienced several crises and every time the frequency issue was discussed.
In 2003, for instance, Tepco was forced to shut down the majority of its nuclear power plants following the revelation that it concealed trouble at a nuclear power station the previous year. The power-sharing issue was highlighted then because of the increased possibility of power outages.
Nonetheless, power companies have taken hardly any steps. They say building frequency conversion facilities requires enormous costs, but one power industry official said, "If power supply systems in the east and west are unified, there will be the possibility of intensifying competition between power companies that are currently given the status of a monopoly in each region."
観光産業に大打撃
来日外国人は前年同時期と比べ半数以下
Thursday, April 7, 2011
Foreign visitors staying away in droves
Kyodo News
The number of foreign visitors fell dramatically in the wake of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, and nuclear crisis, data by immigration authorities showed Wednesday.
Between March 11 and March 31, an average of some 3,400 foreign nationals a day entered Japan via Narita International Airport, down 75 percent from the level of March last year, the Tokyo Regional Immigration Bureau said.
In Osaka, some 1,700 people on average arrived at Kansai International Airport daily from March 18 to 23, down more than 50 percent from the predisaster level, according to data by the Osaka Regional Immigration Bureau.
The disasters have already taken a toll on the tourism and retail sectors, which depend to a large extent on foreign visitors, amid a series of cancellations of tours and hotel reservations.
The sharp drop in the number of visitors also came as foreign governments advised their citizens to refrain from traveling to Japan as the crippled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power station continues to spew radiation.
Before the quake, the number of foreign visitors had been on an uptrend, with a record 8.61 million visitors recorded in 2010, although 2009 was a bad year due to the spread of the H1N1 influenza.
目先だけの利益や利権をエリート間で分かち合い、実質競争をさせない、不平等の歪んだ「むら社会」。戦後大改革をしても、年を経るごとに再び元の木阿弥。個を基調にした民主主義ではないため、内からの自浄作用がまったく期待できない社会。ますます国民は将来の希望を失い、時代の流れに押された女性の社会参加も相まって少子化は避けることはできない。外国人労働の注入は画一教育・管理教育がおよば無い世界。日本の経済的・文化的弱体化の現象が見え始め、エリートの道具に過ぎない議会制度に嫌気をさした国民は投票する意欲さえ薄らいでいく。社会の底辺にいる不正分子たちの反乱が近い将来起こるなんていうシナリオの映画をつくれば、ヒット間違いなし。
*****
地域独占の電力会社天下りの実態
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Utilities got 68 ex-bureaucrats via 'amakudari'
Kyodo
The past 50 years have seen 68 former elite bureaucrats parachuting into top positions at the nation's 12 electricity suppliers after retiring from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, including five who landed at Tokyo Electric Power Co.
At present, 13 retired career-track METI bureaucrats hold senior positions at electric power companies under the practice of "amakudari" (descent from heaven).
METI, which oversees 10 electric utilities and two electricity wholesalers, investigated the matter after the crisis at Tepco's Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant fueled criticism of the practice.
The fact that former elite bureaucrats land key positions at private-sector companies in industries they previously oversaw has been widely criticized for creating cozy, corrupt relations, as well as allegations that this has led to slack supervision of the nuclear power industry.
METI minister Banri Kaieda recently urged his bureaucrats not to accept jobs offered by government-affiliated organizations or companies the ministry oversees, but he has no authority to force retired officials to leave their current jobs.
Five former ministry officials have assumed postretirement positions at Tepco over the past 50 years, including as advisers and board members. The utility is struggling to end the nuclear crisis at its Fukushima plant that was triggered by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami.
The crisis has also cast a spotlight on the relationship between METI and the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, which plays the role of nuclear watchdog but is under the ministry's wings.
The agency, established as a special entity of the METI-affiliated Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, is responsible for ensuring the safety of nuclear plants. The Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan, institutionalized under the Cabinet Office, is supposed to double-check the agency's steps.
Calls are mounting for NISA to be organizationally separated from the ministry, which has long actively promoted nuclear power. Last month, Prime Minister Naoto Kan said he will look into the feasibility of NISA's separation from METI.
Japan, EU to start talks on free trade agreement
Associated Press, On Saturday May 28, 2011
BRUSSELS (AP) -- Japan and the European Union agreed at a summit meeting Saturday to begin negotiations on a free trade agreement that would deepen economic ties between two of the world's largest economies. As a bloc, the EU is the world's largest economy; Japan is number four.
Negotiations will be preceded by what the leaders called a "scoping exercise" to ensure that both side share the same goals and level of ambition for the negotiations.
At the summit, held in the picturesque Castle of Val-Duchesse, the leaders also agreed to work toward greater nuclear safety worldwide and to create closer political ties. The meeting was attended by Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan; Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Council; and Jose Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission.
"Radiation does not stop at national borders, and neither should our collective responsibility," Barroso said at a joint press conference after the meeting. "So when we talk nuclear, we talk global."
Japanese officials are sensitive about being stigmatized by the nuclear accident that followed the devastating earthquake and tsunami of March 11. They believe that some tests on imports of Japanese food are too stringent, even when the food is produced far from the site of the disaster. And they say the loss of tourism, even in areas far from any contamination, will hurt the country's economy.
Barroso sought to allay those concerns Saturday.
"We firmly believe that Japan is safe and open for business," he said.
But the negotiations on a free trade agreement may be difficult.
The European Union imposes a 10 percent tariff on goods imported from Japan while Japan imposes no tariff on those imported from the European Union.
Japanese officials told The Associated Press before the meeting they see the issue as relatively simple.
But EU officials see it as more complex, and they insisted successfully that the talks also take into account non-tariff barriers to trade and investment. They say, for example, that in the EU public procurement is open and they want to make sure that is the case in Japan, as well.
EU officials also say that, while foreign investment is equal to 30 percent of gross domestic product in the EU, in Japan the figure is only 3 percent, and the reasons for that must be explored in the talks to come.
Still, all three leaders said the benefits of successful negotiations would be very significant. Kan said the outcome "would be important for the global markets."
Van Rompuy agreed.
"The potential economic and political results are huge, in terms of jobs, growth and a shared destiny," he said.
The leaders said that, in the political sphere, Japan and the European Union share the same values, including support for democracy and human rights, and should work together in resolving problems from Middle East and North Africa to North Korea. They also said they would cooperate in showing leadership on the issue of climate change.
オペック内にある親欧米のサウジアラビアと反欧米のイラン/ベネズエラの軋轢。燃料オイルが経済発展維持の柱ゆえに、オペックの価格操作によって世界経済が振り回されている恐ろしい事実。オイルを独占するオペック諸国の一部の階層/王族が巨額なオイルマネーで莫大な富を築き、その一方、オイル消費国である自由経済諸国の経済成長や安定が犠牲になる。非オイルの貧しい国は依存しているアメリカ等の自由主義諸国からの経済援助が縮小される。貧しい国にとっても有り難くない、この歪んだ現状がいつまで続くのか。また有限資源のオイルが無くなる暁には、世界経済はいったいどうなっているのか大きな謎がある。
******
OPEC unexpectedly decides to keep output unchanged
OPEC unexpectedly opts to maintain output levels, meet within 3 months to consider hike
A participant gestures during the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, Wednesday, June 8, 2011. (AP Photo/Bela Szandelszky)
George Jahn, Associated Press, On Wednesday June 8, 2011, 10:38 am EDT
VIENNA (AP) -- OPEC unexpectedly decided to leave its production levels unchanged on Wednesday, with senior officials saying their meeting ended in disarray -- a stunning admission for an organization that places a premium on consensus decision making.
OPEC officials said the lack of agreement meant that OPEC will maintain present output ceilings with the option of meeting within the next three months for a possible production hike.
"We are unable to reach consensus to ... raise our production," OPEC Secretary General Abdullah Al-Badri told reporters, in comments reflecting unusual tensions in the 12-nation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Analysts covering OPEC for more than 20 years said they could not remember any other time that the normally closed group had admitted to such divisions in its ranks.
Oil prices surged on the news. Benchmark crude for July delivery was up $1.25 to $100.34 per barrel in morning trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading lower ahead of the OPEC meeting.
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Saudi Arabia and other influential Gulf nations had pushed to increase production ceilings to calm markets and ease concerns that crude was overpriced for consumer nations struggling with their economies. Those opposed were led by Iran, the second-strongest producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
While the Saudis and the Iranians are frequently at loggerheads over pricing, past meetings normally fell in behind Saudi Arabia, which produces the lion's share of OPEC output. But this time, the Saudi-Iranian rivalry combined with major political and economic uncertainties to lead to deadlock.
Among the biggest worries is that unrest in Libya and Yemen could destabilize larger oil-producing nations in the region. The two countries normally produce less than 4 percent of the world's oil needs, and Saudi Arabia and others have boosted output to make up for much of the shortfall.
But while the Saudis have served notice that they are ready to further increase supplies to help compensate for the loss of the daily 1.6 million barrels normally brought to the market by Libya, other OPEC nations -- already pumping close to capacity -- cannot contribute much. This appeared to have fueled the strong opposition to an output ceiling hike.
Global economic weakness is also worrying producers and consumers.
Weak housing and employment reports from the United States added to the gloom spread by Europe's attempts to bail out governments and Japan's post-Fukushima meltdown. At its present price of around $100 a barrel, benchmark crude may be too expensive for nations struggling to make ends meet, worsening the economic picture and leading to less oil demand.
But with sputtering economies using less energy, raising output to lower prices also risks flooding the market, leading to a surplus that could drive prices below $80 a barrel. Even that benchmark, which is preferred by the Saudis and other moderate OPEC members, is considered too low by price hawks Iran and Venezuela.
Tuesday's sober assessment of the U.S. economy from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke added to concerns, especially as the central banker failed to indicate that more monetary stimulus was likely.
"Despite all their efforts, the Saudis were not able to convince Iran and other countries to increase production," said Ehsan Ul-Haq, an analyst with KBC Energy Economics. " It means there is a huge disagreement -- but it also means that it gives the Saudis free space to do what they like."
Thursday, June 16, 2011
Number of people receiving welfare tops 2 million mark
Kyodo
There were 2.02 million people receiving welfare as of March, close to the record 2.04 million in the aftermath of World War II, while the number of households on welfare in March hit an all-time high of 1.46 million, the government said.
The total number of people was almost equivalent to the record monthly average of about 2.04 million logged in fiscal 1952, the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry said Tuesday.
A total of 549 households began to receive welfare benefits in March and April after losing their homes and jobs as a result of the March 11 calamity, including the Fukushima nuclear crisis.
Of the 549 households, 268 were headed by a person of working age, the ministry said.
The figure, however, excludes data from municipalities heavily hit by the disaster, including Ishinomaki, Miyagi Prefecture.
The number of welfare recipients across the nation is believed to have topped the 2 million mark in February as data from Fukushima Prefecture were unavailable due to the disasters. The figure for February was 1.99 million without the data from Fukushima.
Under the welfare benefit system, assistance is given to a household when its total income fails to match the minimum cost of living designated by the government.
U.S. downgrade a crossroads for S&P
By Katie Benner August 6, 2011: 3:12 PM ET
The rating agency's move to downgrade U.S. debt could make it a leader among rating agencies or blow up in its face.
FORTUNE -- In the rating move heard 'round the world, Standard & Poor's lowered the credit rating of the United States, saying that the country could someday miss a debt payment due to its deeply divided government. The move not only creates a huge amount of uncertainty for investors waiting to see how this plays out when markets open on Monday, it is a big gamble for S&P.
The downgrade could give S&P the distinction of being the only firm willing to honestly assess the creditworthiness of a country whose politicians publicly (and flagrantly) toyed with the idea of voluntarily defaulting on debt obligations. Or the move could unleash a backlash. Investors could shun the firm and, more broadly, the government could retaliate by moving rating agency reform from the backwaters of the Wall Street regulatory overhaul to the top of the agenda.
Behind the curve
The longstanding criticism of the big three rating agencies -- Fitch, Moody's (MCO), and Standard & Poor's -- has been that they fall down on the job with terrible results for bond investors. The agencies are supposed to assess the likelihood that a bond issuer might not pay back the money it has borrowed, but in a handful of high profile cases the companies have said that bonds are virtually risk-free nearly up to the day that the issuers default.
Take for example the massive corporate defaults of the early aughts. Stock market darlings Enron and WorldCom were given the highest ratings possible -- AAA, which is often referred to as the risk-free rating -- only to default under the weight of accounting chicanery and management lies. Bear Stearns wasn't downgraded until the day it went under. Then there was the mortgage-backed securities debacle, when agencies bestowed AAA ratings on bonds backed by subprime mortgages, as well as the alphabet soup of structured products (ABS, CDOs, CLOs, CDO-squareds) that were issued en masse by banks during the credit bubble. Those securities were downgraded after investors lost much more money than they would have expected from a AAA-rated bond.
The agencies have fought to repair their tarnished credibility in the wake of the financial crisis by fiddling with their ratings criteria and their corporate cultures. And they have been downgrading shaky looking creditors ahead of potential defaults, slashing ratings for Europe's distressed sovereign debt issuers.
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S&P's decision to downgrade the U.S. from AAA to AA+ (with an outlook negative, meaning another downgrade could be in the cards), is widely perceived as part of the larger campaign of reputation repair. Some have said that the company doesn't have the credibility to pass judgment on the U.S. And while Warren Buffett argues that the country is actually a quadruple-A credit, there are many people who think that S&P wasn't wrong to downgrade the U.S.
"How could any sentient being think that, given all that we've gone through over the last few months, that the U.S. is AAA," says Lawrence White, a professor at NYU's Stern School of Business who has been a harsh critic of the rating agencies. "In some sense, I'm surprised it took them so long."
"The world has known for awhile we're not AAA," says Harry Rady, the founder of Rady Asset Management. "If you look at the U.S. balance sheet as you would any corporation, we're not a risk free credit. This is just another acknowledgement that if the government can't manage its affairs, the market will force it."
If the market accepts, albeit grudgingly, that S&P is correct about its assessment of the country's creditworthiness, the the company will be ahead of the curve on the world's most important bond issuer, the U.S. We could then see other rating agencies acknowledge that S&P was right. "Fitch and Moody's have said they won't downgrade the U.S., but never say never," says Professor White.
Backlash?
The immediate reaction to the downgrade was that S&P can be ignored, particularly given that the rating agency made a $2 trillion mathematical error when it made its original downgrade calculations. ("A judgment flawed by a $2 trillion error speaks for itself," a Treasury representative told the Wall Street Journal.)
And it seems that the downgrade could have little effect on pricing for U.S. government debt. Asian countries have said that they will continue to hold Treasuries (although China wasted no time in using the downgrade to question the dollar's position as the world's reserve currency). The Federal Reserve has said that a downgrade wouldn't impact capital requirements for banks, and the U.S. is still perceived by many as the strongest economy in a world that is struggling to recover from the global recession. "We're the best house in a bad neighborhood, even though nobody has walked inside to notice the small grease fire in the kitchen," says Bill Laggner, co-founder of credit hedge fund Bearing Asset Management.
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But there is a chance that some investors and politicians in the U.S. will want to chasten, rather than ignore, S&P. In the wake of Friday's downgrade, a few credit market participants said that bond issuers may now choose to have their bonds rated by Fitch and Moody's, rather than S&P, for issuing a downgrade that to them seems political and unfair.
Some hope that S&P's decision to downgrade the U.S. will create the political will necessary to compel politicians and regulators to strip raters of the protections that have long allowed them to profit even when they misrate securities.
The rating agencies insist that they merely issue opinions that one can take or leave, a position that is absurd given the fact that laws and regulations force institutional investors and banks to rely on ratings to make investment decisions. After the financial crisis, when many people would have been happy to never use the big three firms again, bond issuers still had to pay them for ratings because most institutional investors must own rated securities. By law, investors and banks still used ratings to determine what bonds they could and could not hold.
Stripping references to rating agencies out of regulation (which has been proposed by the SEC and the Dodd-Frank reform bill) has been stymied by bank regulators like the Federal Reserve, the FDIC, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), according to Professor White, because they do not want to have to take on the responsibility of deciding whether investments held by banks are safe. "It is much easier for regulators to outsource the job of deciding what is safe for banks to own to the rating agencies," he says.
And so finance ministers around the world are now scrambling to respond to the single opinion of a company whose reputation has been laid low by years of high profile mistakes. The jury is still out on whether U.S. political intransigence (which compelled S&P to downgrade the U.S.) will continue to protect the rating agencies from any attempt to curb their power and influence.
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アップルがエクソンモービルをわずかに超えて、アメリカ１位の規模に。
Apple briefly passes Exxon as largest U.S. company
On Tuesday August 9, 2011, 2:18 pm
By Poornima Gupta and Rodrigo Campos
SAN FRANCISCO/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Apple Inc briefly edged past Exxon Mobil Corp to become the most valuable company in the United States after days of volatile stock market action.
The technology giant's market value rose on Tuesday to $341.5 billion, just above Exxon's $341.4 billion, even though the oil major's annual revenue is four times that of Apple's.
Exxon quickly regained the No. 1 spot as its shares rose and Apple's shed some of their gains, with stocks globally remaining volatile because of soft economic data and the downgrading of the United States' sovereign credit on Friday.
At 1:50 p.m. EDT Exxon's market cap was $339.3 billion while Apple's dipped to $338.8 billion.
Tuesday's move by Apple, which ended Exxon Mobil's run of more than five years at the top, capped a remarkable turnaround for a company that once teetered on the brink before Apple's Steve Jobs returned to resuscitate the company he co-founded.
Thirteen years ago, some analysts said Apple's value consisted of real estate holdings and cash on hand.
Apple joined, albeit briefly, a small group of companies that have held the top spot in the S&P 500, including General Electric, General Motors, IBM, Microsoft Corp and AT&T, according to Standard & Poor's Index Analytics
Since July 1, Apple's market capitalization has risen by more than $20 billion, fueled by optimism that a new version of its best-selling iPhone will lead to a monstrous second half of 2011.
Exxon's market cap, on the other hand, has slipped nearly $60 billion in the same period due to volatile crude oil prices.
Men walk past an advertisement for Apple's iPad2 in front of an electronic shop in Tokyo May 5, 2011. S REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon
(Additional reporting by Anna Driver in Houston; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)
米格付け会社スタンダード・アンド・プアーズ（Ｓ＆Ｐ）に対する批判
S&P Slammed After U.S. Downgrade
By Yahoo! News | Daily Ticker – 18 hours ago
By Zachary Roth
Days after Standard & Poor's downgraded the United States' credit rating, a powerful backlash has set in against the move. Washington leaders of both parties, as well as investors, have seemed to shrug off the ratings agency's verdict--and some analysts have even raised questions about S&P's basic competence and credibility.
On Friday, S&P lowered its rating for long-term debt issued by the U.S. Treasury by one notch, from Triple A--its highest rating--to AA+. Explaining the move, it said Washington hadn't done enough to reduce the long-term deficit, and expressed doubt about the ability of political leaders to work together to solve the problem.
After the recent crisis over raising the debt ceiling, those concerns--especially the latter--appear valid. But by lowering the U.S. rating, S&P is saying that it now sees an increased chance that the Treasury won't repay its debts in the future--even though Congress did ultimately vote to raise the ceiling, avoiding a default.
And that's where many observers differ with S&P. Take a look at the financial markets: It's true that, so far this week, Wall Street and foreign markets have nosedived. But that descent began last week, before the downgrade. More important, far from running away from U.S. Treasury bonds, investors are flocking to them, suggesting that they see the chances of a default as slimmer than ever.
"The downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit by S&P on Friday reflects facts that have been well known to the market for some time," said Blackrock, the world's largest asset management firm, in a statement Monday. "So, it does not imply a fundamental increase in risk, and we don't believe that investors should change their behavior based solely on the downgrade."
President Obama appears to agree. "No matter what some agency may say, we've always been and always will be a AAA country," he declared Monday.
Former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan, too, said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press" that he sees no risk in investing in U.S. Treasuries--though the judgment of the economic planner known as "the maestro" hasn't always proved infallible.
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Many economists argue, essentially, that the United States isn't going to fail to pay its debts. "The debt is issued in dollars. That means it is payable in dollars. The U.S. government prints dollars," wrote Dean Baker of the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research Saturday. "This means that if for some reason the government was unable to tax or borrow to raise the money to pay its debt then it could always print it. This may carry a risk of inflation, but S&P is not in the business of making inflation predictions, they are in the business of assessing the likelihood that debt will be repaid."
S&P is the world's largest ratings agency. In most cases, its business model is based on charging the issuers of debt--private corporations, local and state governments, for instance--in exchange for a rating. The issuer then uses a positive rating to give investors confidence in the solidity of the investment. But S&P also rates the debt of 126 countries. And, like many of the countries whose debt is rated by S&P, the United States neither requests nor pays for its rating.
S&P had warned earlier last month that if the debt ceiling negotiations failed to result in a deficit-reduction package worth at least $4 trillion, it would downgrade the U.S. rating. And now that the agency has delivered on that threat, S&P's critics argue that the credit raters are digging in on what amounts to a self-fulfilling prophecy. The decision "smacked of an institution starting with a conclusion and shaping any arguments to fit it" declared Gene Sperling, a top White House economics adviser, over the weekend.
It hasn't helped S&P's credibility that the Obama administration pointed out what it calls a "$2 trillion error" in how the ratings agency calculated the deficit over the next decade. "They've shown a stunning lack of knowledge about basic U.S. fiscal budget math," said Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner.
But David Beers, who runs the S&P unit that rates government debt, told ABC News Monday he "absolutely" does not have second thoughts about the move.
Geithner, said Beers, "acknowledged the damage that was done to the U.S. reputation because of the controversy over the debt ceiling ... He also acknowledged that the underlying public finances of the U.S. government are on an unsustainable path."
"So we have this paradox here," Beers continued, "where the Treasury Secretary seems to agree with the thrust of our analysis, he just rejects [our rating]."
It's true that the administration's stance in some ways fits awkwardly with its previous position. For months, the White House had argued that Republicans' unwillingness to consider tax increases was jeopardizing the country's long-term fiscal health. In its report on the downgrade, S&P made clear that it shares that view, noting that the downgrade came about in part because "the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues." But now the administration appears to reject the notion that the GOP's uncompromising stance threatens future U.S. solvency.
Still, it's not just Team Obama that isn't lining up behind S&P. Rep. Eric Cantor, the number two Republican in the House, urged his colleagues Monday to maintain a hard line against tax increases, despite S&P's clear statement that it acted in part because of Republican intransigence on the issue.
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Other critics have sought to undercut S&P by noting its key role, along with the other leading ratings agencies, in inflating the housing bubble and paving the way for the financial crisis. S&P and other credit-rating agencies slapped AAA ratings on a slew of non-prime mortgage deals, long after their true value had become clear to many analysts--perhaps because they're paid by the banks whose deals they're rating, giving them an apparent incentive to offer favorable assessments. "It could be structured by cows and we would rate it," one S&P analyst wrote to another in 2007.
"I don't know what makes them experts at this," said Rep. Brad Sherman, a California Democrat and frequent critic of credit-rating operations, in a statement issued Monday in response to the downgrade. "Obviously, they got it pretty wrong in mortgage-backed securities."
And S&P hasn't just missed the mark in sizing up the viability of toxic mortgage assets. As Nate Silver of the New York Times noted Monday, the agency's assessments of the likelihood of various countries defaulting on their debt in recent years also appear shaky. Silver, a respected statistical analyst, called S&P's ratings "substandard and porous."
Elsewhere in the blogosphere, there have even been questions about S&P's basic competence. "To say that S&P analysts aren't the sharpest tools in the drawer is a massive understatement," writes one prominent finance blogger and former lawyer for an investment bank, who claims to have had "extensive" experience with all three major ratings agencies. "These guys personify amateur hour."
And Monday, Moody's, the second largest ratings agency, released its own report, confirming that it's maintaining the United State's triple-A rating. The country, said Moody's, enjoys "unmatched access to financing, meaning that the U.S. government can support higher debt levels than other governments."
Moody's added that it expects to see more progress made toward cutting the deficit. "Although the political process has been considerably more contentious than usual in the past few months, it finally did produce an agreement. We expect further fiscal measures over time, albeit with vigorous debate over the particulars."
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